Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 112054
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

STARTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECASTED YET AGAIN. MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON
BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN UT/CO WHICH
IS ALSO WHERE A PV LOBE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THIS PV LOBE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOWS UP IN LESS COVERAGE TOMORROW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ISOLD/SCT STORMS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINERS POSSIBLE AS PWATS REMAIN VERY
HIGH OVER THE CWA.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE TOMORROW...H7
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY WHICH WILL
LIMIT...SOMEWHAT...AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE TO ALLOW ANOTHER DAY
OF CONVECTION THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SAN JUANS
WITH WEAK CELLS POPPING OVER THE REMAINING HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS BUT LEFT CHC TO SCHC IN
FORECAST IN THE OFF CHANCE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAKES IT OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NO BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED STAYING NEAR NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE PERSISTENT UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT ERODES MOISTURE
SLIGHTLY... TO LESS THAN ONE INCH PWAT VALUES FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. SO THE DAILY THUNDERSTORM GENERATION WILL
FAVOR THE SOUTH FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS MOVING OVER THE VALLEYS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IMPORTANT
DISTURBANCES ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DEFINE THIS FAR OUT. ONE
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL DROP DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. NW GRADIENT WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN. THE GFS REBOUNDS THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WHILE THE
EC FLATTENS THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SW. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DIURNAL SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THESE PERIODS FOR THIS THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST PERIOD OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CONVECTION CONTINUES WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING AT THIS
TIME. TAF SITES HAVE A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING VCTS/TS
FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS BEING
OF MAIN CONCERN. HIGHER TERRAIN HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH SOME CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER
00Z. VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR A STORM POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR



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