Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 202202
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
402 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE DAY/S CONVECTION...FUELED MAINLY BY LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DIFFERENTIAL/DIURNAL HEATING WILL DIMINISH AS THE
SUN SETS THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD...SLOWING SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS MORNING. THEREFORE THE
ONLY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
THESE SHOULD BE LESS THAN PLENTIFUL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-LATE MAY.

EXPECT A QUIET START THURSDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW TO IMPACT
THE AREA CIRCULATES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 12Z. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
ADVECTING MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO THE
FORECAST AREA. LATER IN THE DAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
DRIVEN BY A 95 KT MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET WILL PROVIDE DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT
ENHANCING LIFT IN AN AIRMASS DESTABILIZED BY DIURNAL WARMING. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING LATE IN THE MORNING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
SUSTAINED BY FORCING PROVIDED BY THE JET DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY. THE
FORCING GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH LATER IN THE NIGHT SO DO ANTICIPATE
A CESSATION OF MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF WARMER
AIR MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LOW DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL TRACK ACROSS
LAS VEGAS ON FRIDAY TO NORTHWEST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THERE IT
AND BECOMES LESS DISTINCT...SLOWED BY A SECONDARY LOW WHICH WILL
SWEEP SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVES
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER...FASTER MOVING SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
ESSENTIALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF
THE UNSETTLED...MOIST...AND SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PREVALENT DURING PERIODS OF TROUGH PASSAGE. MODELS NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK SO MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POP
FIELDS WHICH MAY BE TOO LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR WILL BECOME ISOLATED BY 03Z AND END BEFORE 06Z. KCAG KHDN
KSBS COULD SEE BRIEF -TSRA WITH CIGS BLO 050 UNTIL 04Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE EXCEPT FOR MINOR MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AFT 15Z THURSDAY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFT 20Z ALL TAF
SITES WILL BE THREATENED WITH -TSRA CIGS BLO 050 VIS BLO 5SM WITH
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...EH+JOE



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