Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 201034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
334 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Low clouds and scattered morning showers will gradually give way
to clearing conditions by this afternoon. The clearing will be
short-lived as we see more mid and high level clouds spread back
over the region with fast WSW flow setting up aloft. The upper jet
aligned to bring another prolonger atmospheric river event to
portions of the western U.S. with bulk of deep moisture sliding to
our north with the jet aligned from northern California NE to
eastern Wyoming by Tuesday. What does this all mean for us? Looks
like mild conditions will continue for a few more days with
isolated to scattered showers favoring the high country through
midweek. The jet eventually drops far enough south to drive better
forcing into our area just outside of this short-term packaged.
Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals today
and Tuesday with mild overnight lows expected with increasing
blanket of mid/high level cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

An increasingly moist zonal flow will develop as a weak baroclinic
zone sets up across the northern half of the forecast area on
Tuesday night and Wednesday. This feature has grown stronger with
each successive run and could see some light to moderate
accumulations Tuesday night through Wednesday, especially over the
northern mountains. After a brief lull, a colder and more active
weather pattern sets up for the region. A better organized
shortwave will drop into the Great Basin on Wednesday night and
move across the area on Thursday bringing another round of snow to
the mountains and rain/snow to the lower elevations Wednesday
night into Friday. Moist zonal flow will keep mountain snow shower
activity continuing on Saturday as another wave moves across the
Great Basin and brings another round of precipitation on Saturday
night into Sunday, with the best focus over the southern half of
the forecast area. After seasonable temperatures on Wednesday,
expect seasonably cold temperatures Thursday through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 334 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Showers and lingering low clouds will gradually dissipate this
morning with areas of IFR/MVFR CIGS and VSBYS breaking out by 16Z.
ILS CIGS will hang around through midday with VFR conditions then
settling back in at all sites by 21Z. Patchy valley fog will
bring off by late this morning, although another round of valley
fog possible again tonight, possibly impacting KVEL east to KSBS.




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