Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 222107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
307 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A ridge will remain over the area tonight through Wed. morning with
a shortwave trough rotating over the area from south to north and
through the ridge. A band of mid and high clouds with a bit of
instability will accompany the trough. Thunderstorms are
developing in the sunshine over the mountains ahead of and behind
this cloud band. There is not much shear and CAPE is lacking so
only garden variety thunderstorm are expected.

There will be a period of subsidence behind the shortwave early Wednesday
but by later Wed. afternoon flow aloft will be sandwiched between
an old open wave over CA/NV and the ridge that will have moved to
SE NM and west TX. So late Wed. afternoon and evening may provide
a brief monsoon surge.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Ridging and drier conditions with some subsidence will move in
Thursday as the ridge builds in following a weak trough passing
through Wyoming. Both the EC and GFS show the monsoon plume gets
shoved to the south and east and the surge should be shortlived.

The GFS and EC remain in synch and show strong ridging building
over the Great Basin and most of the western U.S. This produces
dry NW flow aloft over the area through Tuesday with a remnant of
the monsoon plume hanging over SE and South-central CO possibly
clipping the easternmost portion of the San Juan Mountains will
continue Thursday as the ridges is projected to recede to the


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A disturbance will continue rotating through the area through
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous ahead of
the mid and high clouds associated with the disturbance, mainly
over the Bookcliffs and Roan Plateaus and the Flattops. Storms
will also continue to fire, though fewer, over the Uncompahgre
and the Grand Mesa. TAF sites having a chance of impacts through
about 04z tonight are KTEX, KMTJ, KRIF, KEGE and KASE where ILS
breakpoints may be reached at times and mountains will become
obscured under stronger storms and showers. A few nocturnal
showers will persist overnight as the disturbance lifts north,
resulting in another round of afternoon convection on Wednesday.




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