Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 181033
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
433 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 432 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Light northerly flow aloft will continue today with slight cooling
aloft. This will knock temps back by a solid 2 to 4 degrees from
yesterday. This will be a brief break in the heat as high
pressure strengthens over the southwest United States and sends
the hottest temperatures so far this year over the area. Have
upgraded the excessive heat watch to a heat warning with some
adjustments to timing based on new guidance. Our eastern Utah
zones will start Monday afternoon with the Grand Valley delayed
until Tuesday. Temperatures will soar into the 105 to 115 degree
range with the excessively hot conditions spreading northeast
into the Grand Valley by Tuesday afternoon. Overnight mins are
expected to stay very warm with readings around 70 in most of our
lower valleys. Deep mixing will drive down gusty afternoon winds
with no precipitation expected through the short-term period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 432 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Temperatures will be soaring by Tuesday with the hot weather
sticking around through the end of the week. Very fitting as we
start off the Summer season. H7 temps will be climbing in to the
lower +20C range which drives higher elevations temps to around 70
degrees. Down in the lower valleys, expect the triple digit heat
to stick around through at least Friday.

There is some flattening of the upper flow by late in the week as
we see a few waves pass to our north. This will cool the northern
zones a bit and allow a little better moisture to slide in
resulting in a few showers over the higher terrain. Slightly
stronger front looks to push through on Friday, which would bring
at least a temporary end to this round of summer heat. Also expect
an increase in winds by the end of the week as the cooler
conditions battle the warm summer heat over our area. This will
elevation fire weather concerns once again. Looking out at the 8
to 14 day period, expect more of the same with odds favoring the hot
and dry conditions continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 432 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR conditions will continue over the region for the next 24
hours. Winds will be primarily terrain driven, although gusty
conditions should be expected between 20Z and 03Z/MON this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 432 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

A number of streams and creeks continue to run strong, cold and
high and should continue to do so through early this week. The
Green River near Jensen remains near bankfull and CBRFC forecasts
indicated that high flows there will continue. Meanwhile, tunnel
closures are expected to cause the Roaring Fork in Aspen to remain
near bankfull for several days. Where water is running high,
river banks may become saturated and unstable and lowlands along
the rivers may become inundated. Remember if you are going to
raft, kayak or tube on the rivers be sure to always wear a life
jacket.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM MDT Thursday for COZ006.

UT...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 10 PM MDT Thursday for UTZ022-
     027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JDC
HYDROLOGY...TGJT



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