Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 071030
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
COMING WEEK UNDER A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS TODAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
REGION. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE EXTENT
AND DENSITY OF LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES DUE TO VALLEY INVERSIONS
ALSO POSE A CHALLENGE SINCE GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES TOO WARM IN THESE AREAS. IN BOTH CASES WILL LEAN
TOWARD PERSISTENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER CONDITIONS IN STAGNANT VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN AREAS
ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL WARM IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WHILE VALLEYS...FOR REASONS JUST DISCUSSED...WILL LAG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COMING WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INVERTED VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE
SLOWER TO RESPOND TO THE WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE WEAKENS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A PAIR OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS
ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH
MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY
INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS LIMITED COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING IT/S
LIKELY THAT KCNY WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBY IN FOG AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH 15Z. CHANCES FOR SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR KGJT...KRIL...KEGE...AND KASE ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
MEANWHILE...ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ELKHEAD AND PARK
MOUNTAINS MAY OBSCURE PEAKS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z/MON. STRATUS AND
FOG MAY IMPACT EAST-CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.