Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231637
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1037 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 648 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Moisture will continue to increase from the southwest today as an
upper level low pressure system currently spinning over Arizona
this morning, moves into the Four Corners region this afternoon
and across southwest Colorado this evening. Precipitable Water
(PW) on the 12Z GJT RAOB indicated 0.86 inches, which is higher
than 24 hours ago. Models project higher values above an inch
towards the Four Corners. Some localized flooding occurred
yesterday as well as soaking rains across southeast Utah and
southwest Colorado. Storms are expected to become more numerous
across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado due to the deeper
moisture and upper low, generating enough forcing to get some
stronger storms going with potential for heavy rain. Storm motion
is expected to be slow as well. Due to these factors, a Flash
Flood Watch has been issued for portions of southeast Utah and
southwest Colorado, as any rain falling on areas of already
saturated soils will be more prone to flash flooding. Most storm
activity is expected to end by midnight as a drier westerly flow
moves in behind the upper low pressure trough.

While a modest amount of moisture will remain over the area on
Wednesday, a downturn in showers and thunderstorms is expected as
Tue`s trough moves east of the area. That said enough moisture and
better daytime heating will allow some convection. This will
mainly focus on the higher terrain, especially along the
Continental Divide. Temperatures are also expected to warm a
little, but still stay below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

A series of low pressure disturbances will pass along the
US/Canada border Thursday into the weekend and will act to
reinforce a mean low pressure trough over the western CONUS into
the weekend at least. This will keep a moist and unsettled, but
gentle southwest flow over the forecast area. Therefore showers
and thunderstorms will continue with the late day hours the most
convectively active. The south will be favored with the north
somewhat drier. High temperatures will stay below normal with lows
closer to normal values.

Models indicate a drying trend will begin early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1037 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous over
areas south of I-70 this afternoon and continue through the
evening, coming to an end after 06Z. All TAF sites look to see at
least VCTS with better chance of heavy rain for TAF sites south of
I-70 including KTEX, KASE, KDRO, KCNY and KMTJ. VFR conditions
will occur for the most part with brief MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions under heavier showers. Mountains will be frequently
obscured. Some fog is possible overnight with isolated showers
lingering beyond midnight. Storms are expected to re-develop
mainly over higher terrain after 17z Wednesday with a downturn in
activity compared to today.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ011-
     017>023.

UT...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-
     027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA/EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...MDA



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