Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 300947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
347 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Split flow continues over the western CONUS according to the
latest upper air hand analysis on the H5 chart. This does not bode
well for a widespread precipitation event over our CWA. However we
should see a slight increase in coverage of showers and
thunderstorms activity today as the upstream troughs swing
eastward over the next 24 to 36 hours. As expected the northern
stream trough is associated with a stronger jet and will
accelerate at a quicker pace across the northern states. It still
appears however that the two system will phase temporarily across
our region today and this leads to the uptick in convection. The
northern stream energy has been holding convection together over
the Utah Panhandle early this morning...while satellite imagery
suggests mid level instability is in place ahead of the southern
stream with abundant ACCAS across the region. Ingredients for
convection come together a little better in the north today so the
lower elevations will have a better chance of seeing a passing
shower. Otherwise expect convection to continue to favor the
higher terrain. There may be some lingering showers/storms
associated with a mid level front that will be draped near the
I-70 corridor overnight. The forcing for ascent will be well east
of our cwa on Tuesday. Mid level instability and residual moisture
will still allow some mountain showers to develop in the afternoon
heating...but this should be limited to the divide mountains and
portions of the San Juans. Temperatures remain near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

The closed low will stall over Arizona, propagate southward,
and stay south of our forecast area through Wednesday before it
weakens. During this time frame, afternoon convection should stay
anchored over the higher terrain for the most part. In the
meantime, 500 mb heights strengthen high pressure over the
western US and qill slowly shift its axis over eastern Utah and
western Colorado by next weekend. Summer-like weather will truly
show up late this week and next weekend as temperatures soar into
the 90s across the lower valleys and into the upper 60s in the
high mountains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity is expected again today
starting over the higher terrain and potentially drifting into
some of the valley locations. The KTEX and KASE terminals will
have the best probabilities of being impacted by gusty winds and
temporary ILS conditions this afternoon. Wind gusts to exceed 40
mph near the stronger storms. VFR conditions will prevail however
at all the forecast terminals over the next 24 hours.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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