Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 171743 AAA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1143 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SOME CONVECTION QUICKLY POPPED UP FROM NEAR GREEN RIVER UTAH TO
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AROUND 0400 MDT THIS MORNING...AND HAS BEEN
MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 MPH. SO UPDATED THE FORECASTS FOR
THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE THAT ACTIVITY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAIN
THIS MORNING FROM THE SHOWERS...THOUGH RADAR HAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN A TENTH AND 0.20 SO FAR IN THE EASTERN TAVAPUTS PLATEAU
IN UTAH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPPER HIGH CENTERED IN VICINITY OF FOUR CORNERS INTO MONDAY...
THOUGH IT SHOULD BEGIN DRIFTING EASTWARD LATER MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES SOUTHWARD.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS OUR AREA...AND BUMPED THEM UP A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
GRIDS IN MOST AREAS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DONT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIPITATION FROM THE FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS PWATS SHOULD
AGAIN BE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.75 OF AN INCH. EXPECT THE BULK OF
ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO BE OVER THE WESTERN SAN JUANS...WEST
ELKS...AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS. THESE MAINLY MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TONIGHT.

THIS BRIEF RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SE UTAH AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL
MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH INCREASING STORM AND
SHOWER COVERAGE IN SE UTAH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VALLEY
PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST ASSISTS WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW THAT WILL PULL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM INCREASES PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO 1.25 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 1.1 INCH
ON TUESDAY...BOTH VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME NOCTURNAL STORMS.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH TRIES TO PROGRESS INLAND STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOWERS AS THE TROUGH MAY
EITHER INTRODUCE A DRIER AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR START TO
PULL DEEPER MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. IN ANY CASE STILL EXPECT
THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND UNDER A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD MAINLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY A
FEW DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE INTERSTATE
70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SEES THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH STORMS TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT FAVORED MOUNTAIN TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND WILL WATCH FOR SHORTER TERM UPDATES.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRP
SHORT TERM...JRP/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/JRP
AVIATION...BEN



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