Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 310527
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1127 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EVENING FORECAST AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAILS
ACROSS NE UTAH INTO NW COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED BY WEAK CAP
NEAR 500 MB PER 00Z KGJT SOUNDING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A UPTICK
IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING OR LATER TONIGHT GIVEN THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN IDAHO INTO EXTREME NRN UTAH. ALTHOUGH THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEFTOVER DEBRIS MAY
GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT MOVES ACROSS NE
UTAH INTO MOFFAT/ROUTT COUNTY. UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT
THESE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TONIGHT...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER AIR. THE RIDGETOP CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET AND ONLY A THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

12Z KGJT RAOB SHOWS NO MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING HELP KEEP A
QUIET DAY IN PLACE. HOWEVER UPSTREAM DERIVED GOES AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AHEAD
THE SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. WE WILL BE IN GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BEHIND A WAVE
DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN CO PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS WAVE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT DROPS TO THE NM BORDER
DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE MAINLY TERRAIN BASED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THOUGH MODELS DO HINT AT ISOLATED STORMS
SURVIVING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AN UPSTREAM JET NOSES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. NOT CONVINCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM NICELY UNDER THE RIDGE WITH HIGHS PUSHING TO ABOVE NORMAL TO
END OUT MAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ASCENT FROM THE JET AND AN WEAKLY DEFINED TROUGH
LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WILL AID IN MOUNTAIN BASED
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SHOULD ULTIMATELY LIMIT
COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN CWA MOUNTAINS. A VERY WARM SPELL LOOKS TO
START ON MONDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD.
THE DRY AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL PRETTY MUCH AXE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS THE APEX OF THE RIDGE IS DEFORMED BY THE STORM TRACK
TO THE NORTH. IT LOOKS HOWEVER THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY END UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF NORMAL. CHANGES CONTINUE TO BE
HINTED AT BY THE MED RANGE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD WITH
FRIDAY BEING THE TRANSITIONS DAY. A MORE NORMAL SPRING 2015
PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN WITH LOW PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. PACIFIC AND POSSIBLY MOISTURE FROM A
WEAKENING ANDRES LOOKS TO BE DRAWN INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION
FRIDAY...THEN ENHANCED BY GULF MOISTURE AND ANOTHER TROPICAL
SYSTEM ARRIVING TO THE TIP OF BAJA GOING IN TO THE WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THE PATTERN TO EVOLVE BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASION LIGHTNING STRIKE CONTINUE TO
TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM
NORTHEAST DAGGETT COUNTY SOUTHEAST-WARD ACROSS EAGLE COUNTY. IT
APPEARS THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 09Z-10Z IN
THIS SAME GENERAL AREA. SHOWERS REMAIN LIGHT...SO SHOULD NOT
IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND VFR WILL PREVAIL. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PEAKING AROUND 23Z-01Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...EH



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