Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 141054
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
354 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

The closed low responsible for the clouds and precipitation over
the last few days has managed to reach the west coast of the Baja
Peninsula at this hour and will continue to drift to the southeast
over the next few days. Ample moisture remains across our area as
PWATs and specific humidities remain elevated. Like yesterday, not
much advection taking place aloft or at the surface and with
clouds still in the picture, temps will remain very similar to
yesterday. Before getting into the precip forecast, important to
mention the moisture is also causing plenty of fog, some dense,
across eastern Utah and western Colorado. Many sites are reporting
fog with visibilities varying from 5 miles to 1/4 mile. No brainer
to keep the dense fog advisories going through the mid-morning
hours.

As far as precipitation is concerned, models continue to
highlight widespread precipitation for the CWA for the overnight
becoming focused over the San Juans from about noon time onwards.
Local observations and webcams do show rain and snow for many
areas this morning but generally light. Short range models are
also in agreement with this widespread precip ending, or becoming
much lighter, shortly after daybreak and then the San Juans get
the next shot. The winter highlights look to be in good shape so
will leave as is for this mornings package. So, a few showers
possible outside of the San Juans with clouds continuing for most
of the forecast area.

By this evening and into Sunday, the low pressure will have moved
to just south of New Mexico and will start moving towards the
northeast. The location of the low and easterly flow will start
favoring the Colorado Plains and southern portions of the Front
Range as our precipitation finally starts winding down. The
mountains along the Continental Divide will see some snowshowers
continuing but the heavier precipitation will be just about done.
Would like to say the sun returns but that doesn`t look to happen
until Monday so one more day of some grey skies though the sun
will peek through from time to time. Also, temperatures will drop
a few degrees, 3 to 5, Sunday afternoon and into Monday as winds
become northerly allowing some cooler air to move in.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

The models are in good agreement that we will finally see a break
from this steady stream of moisture and active weather beginning
Monday afternoon and lasting through Wednesday night as high
pressure moves in over the Great Basin and lays over the region,
with a much drier airmass in place. As this occurs though, another
low pressure system will be moving into the Pacific Northwest with
moisture increasing across eastern Utah and western Colorado by
Thursday morning. So, after our brief dry spell Monday through
Wednesday, the weather will become more active again Thursday
through at least the weekend as Pacific storms barrel across the
region bringing more Pacific moisture which in turn means more
snow for the mountains, with a mix in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 333 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

Little change for those with aviation concerns as moisture
continues to move in from the south. The moisture will allow snow
and rainfall to continue today with areas varying from IFR to VFR
across eastern Utah and western Colorado. Plenty of fog is being
reported this morning and will continue through 17Z or so before
it breaks. Areas north will see the `best` weather today though
low ceilings and visibilities are possible. Mountains will remain
obscured through the period. ILS break points will be met for
mountain TAF sites while valley TAF sites will likely stay above
them through the day.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for COZ001-002-
     005>007.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ019.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ009-
     012-017-018.

UT...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for UTZ024-027.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGR



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