Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 242310
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
510 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A few rain and snow showers hanging on late this afternoon in
wrap-around flow as the main upper low continues to lift northeast
into the North Dakota. HRRR and RAP keep the light showers rolling
through late this evening, before shutting things down as mid
level flow becoming more north to northeasterly introducing more
of a downsloping component for much of our forecast area. Cloud
cover will be the big factor with potential freezing temperatures
overnight with our higher valleys the biggest concern. Steamboat,
Craig and Gunnison have all had hard freezes earlier this month
and other guidance in remaining high valleys holds temps up a bit
with clouds and higher surface moisture in place. Will hold off
on an highlights for freezing temps at this time with expectation
that any run to or slightly below freezing will be very late and
short-lived. Secondary concern will be areas of fog in the
valleys late tonight and have this covered in the latest forecast
package.

Sunday and Monday will be dry with high pressure building
overhead. This will result in light winds, seasonal daytime highs
and cool overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Upper level ridging will be migrating east Monday night and
Tuesday with southwest flow returning by midweek. Pattern looks to
remain dry through Tuesday before moisture starts lifting back
north into the southern zones on Wednesday as the remnants of
another tropical system get caught up in the flow. ECMWF and GFS
in decent agreement with kicking a wave out across the forecast
area Thursday with additional energy to follow through the
weekend. So after a slow start to this extended period, things
will become more interesting as we close out the week with rain
and mountain snow returning to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 504 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Showers will continue through early evening across northwest
Colorado and west-central Colorado as a deep trough from a storm
system to the north tracks over the area. Reduced cigs/vsby is
expected among heavier showers with frequent mountain obscurations
through about 03z in rain and snow. TAF sites are expected to
remain light rain with low ceilings until about 03z...then clearing
skies are seen behind the exiting trough. VFR conditions will
return late this evening through Sunday as a drier airmass takes
hold.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...CC


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