Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 031358 AAA
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
658 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Increased pops across northwest Colorado mountains and some higher
surrounding valleys as some light snow is falling out of the
showers and clouds currently associated with a trailing weak
shortwave in northwest flow. Some northwest orographics are also
in play. Not expecting much accumulation at all, just flurries to
very light snow through early afternoon as this shortwave passes.
Also, lowered the high temperature for today as colder air pours
in behind the departing trough. Low temperature this morning at
Grand Junction dropped to 16, with many areas seeing the coldest
temperatures so far this season. Thinking valley inversions may
hold on a bit longer and be tough to break this afternoon with
limited mixing, so went closer to the cooler MAV guidance. Most of
the area aside from the northern mountains will see mostly sunny
skies today with a few passing high clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Temperatures are running between 3 and 5 degrees cooler at many
locations this hour compared to 24 hours ago as skies are clearing
out behind a departing boundary. In fact Grand Junction Airport is
currently reporting a temperature of 18 F. Skies will remain
mostly clear to partly cloudy for a majority of the forecast area
today into tonight. Under these sky conditions temperatures will
be running 2 to 6 degrees warmer at many locations by this
afternoon, but will remain pretty chilly.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Dry weather and a few more degrees of warming are expected on
Sunday as high pressure briefly builds over the area. Temperatures
will continue to rise in southwestern portions of the CWA on
Monday as warm southerly winds move in ahead of an approaching
cold front. This cold front will bring snow to northeastern
portions of the CWA Monday morning with snow spreading south
throughout the day. This cold front will open the door to a really
cold airmass which will sweep in on Tuesday and linger into
Thursday.

700mb temperatures associated with this cold airmass will plummet
to -15 to -18 C by Tuesday evening. This translates into afternoon
temperatures in the single digits to mid teens in the mountains
Tuesday and Wednesday the the valleys only seeing high
temperatures in the mid 20s. Overnight low temperatures will be
pretty frigid with widespread temperatures ranging between -1 and
-10 F in eastern portions of the CWA and single digit to lower
teens for the remainder of the CWA. Temperatures will slowly warm
on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 356 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Skies are beginning to clear out this morning as a boundary exits
the forecast area. A cold crisp airmass is in place behind this
boundary and will provide VFR conditions at a majority of the
terminals today. Generally light diurnal winds are expected to
prevail today.

Over all forecast confidence is high.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...Larry
LONG TERM...Larry
AVIATION...Larry


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