Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 031010
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
410 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CLOUD COVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON ALONG THE FRINGE OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE THE H5 VORT MAX WILL BE SITUATED. A 50 KT
JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

ULJ SUPPORT INCREASES FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PAC NW INTERACTING WITH ENERGY AND
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. EXPECTING ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE GFS AND EC INDICATE
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AROUND
00Z SATURDAY. THE NAM IS ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE BUT IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY LATE FRIDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL GENERATE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE
FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A DOWNTURN IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST US WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

A SHORT WAVE OVER ARIZONA WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SW COLORADO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED -TSRA SPREADING TOWARD THE I70 CORRIDOR. THE BEST FOCUS
FOR THIS WAVE WILL BE BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z. A TRANSITION FROM
-SHRA TO -TSRA WITH STRONGER STORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...MPM


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