Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 111705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1005 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

Still seeing a few light showers early this morning, mainly along
north facing slopes as we continue to squeeze out all available
moisture. Few decent snowfall amounts have come in with a foot
plus reported on top of the Grand Mesa and in Silverton down in
the San Juans. The lingering showers and stratus decks will be
eroding this morning with bulk of snowfall expected to be done by
9 am. Dry and stable conditions expected this afternoon as we
await the next system that will be later tonight and Friday.
Rather energetic NW flow will be in play through this period with
moderate moisture available. Classic set-up for our northern zones
near Steamboat down to Vail to pick-up at least light to
potentially moderate snowfall amounts from midnight through late
Friday afternoon. Confidence in winter highlights is close, but
not quite there with recent model performance of over-forecasting
snowfall amounts. As a result, will hold off an any potential
highlights, which at the moment would be confined to the higher
Park Range Peaks. Elsewhere, after some sun today, cloud cover
will be rolling back in overnight. Could see a few showers sneak
down as far south as the northwest San Juans by Friday morning,
but nothing significant in the accumulation department is

Little movement with temperatures are expected the next few days
with readings generally running from 5 to 10 degrees above

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

Lingering snow showers in northwest flow will slowly diminish Friday
night across the northern and central mountains of western Colorado.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the western US on Saturday
and slowly move east over the Great Basin by early next week. Mostly
cloudy skies, especially across the north, will continue through
this period as weak storm systems brush by to our east. Otherwise,
dry and seasonably warm temperatures are expected. The ridge will
flatten by midweek as the next storm system impacts the Pacific
Northwest. A more active pattern is forecasted to impact our area by
the latter part of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 952 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites the next 24 hours,
with KTEX have brief cigs to ILS breakpoints. Northwest flow will
continue with embedded moisture causing local orographic snowfall
over the northern mountains of western CO and eastern UT, and
portions of the central and SW CO mountains. In these areas local
mountain obscurations will continue through today. Areal coverage
of snowfall will increase after 00z as another weak upper system
moves through. This will affect mainly areas north of Interstate




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