Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 130832
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
132 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 129 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

Dense fog now being reported near Rifle, CO and also in Vernal,
UT. The weather observing equipment for Rifle is located a few
hundred feet above the town of Rifle so expect the equipment is in
a low cloud as local webcams show minimal fog around town.
However, heading east down the I-70 corridor from Rifle, one can
see plenty of fog on CDOT webcams. As far as Vernal is concerned,
fog for that area is a common occurrence and webcams do
corroborate the report. So, dense fog advisories now in effect for
those two areas until 10AM this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Latest IR satellite this afternoon shows a well defined stream of
moisture moving in from the southwest. This has resulted in steady
showers across northern portions of our forecast area over the
past several hours; northeast Utah in particular. An area of low
pressure over California will continue to drop south over the
next few days with models keeping the center of it well out of
our forecast area. We will still feel the effects of this system,
though, as the low keeps pumping moisture into the forecast area
through the short term and into the long term period. In
particular, the abundance of moisture will keep skies overcast and
allow overnight lows tonight to warm slightly.

As far as highlights go, made no changes to the winter advisories
and warnings issued late this morning. Showers will taper off in
the eastern Uinta Basin this evening, so the Winter Weather
Advisory should still be able to drop at 11 pm. Coverage and snowfall
rates will pick up over the northern and central mountains tonight
and early Friday morning with high-resolution models picking up
on a band stretching across I-70. Overall, accumulations on the
magnitude of 6 to 12 inches are expected for these areas through
Friday. Locally higher amounts will be possible, especially at
elevations above 9000ft and on western and southern facing
slopes. Lighter accumulations are expected in the San Juans
tonight and Friday before the heavier precipitation arrives Friday
night into Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

By Saturday, the aforementioned closed low will be south of the
CONUS and start to move back inland on Sunday. The track of this
low will allow for showers to wind down over the northern
mountains Saturday morning while activity persists over the
central and southern mountains. An additional 5 to 10 inches will
fall over the southwest San Juan mountains Friday night and
Saturday. Additional accumulations greater than 12 inches will be
possible above 10000ft, resulting in storm total snowfall
exceeding two feet.

The low will progress across the Texas panhandle by the beginning
of the work week with some wraparound moisture resulting in
lingering showers down south. Weak transitory ridging builds
across the area on Wednesday seeing the return of benign weather
for the first time in a while! This break will be short-lived,
however, as a broad upper level trough moves onshore and brings an
increased chance for clouds and showers for the latter half of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Strong upper level low pressure system just west of California
will drop south into the northern Baja region over the next 48
hours. Moisture wrapping around this low pressure system will
continue to impact aviation interests across our area with rain
and snow showers generating ceilings below ILS breakpoints with
areas of MVFR to IFR conditions as well. Focus of the heaviest
precipitation will shift south after 00z/Sat with slowly
improving ceilings expected north of Interstate 70. Mountains will
remain obscured in low clouds and snow showers.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for
     COZ002>004-013.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for COZ007.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ009-012-
     017-018.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ019.

UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ025.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for UTZ024.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for UTZ028.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...JDC



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