Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 170553
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1053 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM
MST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOIST BUT FRAGMENTED PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG DIAGNOSTICS DO SHOW DYNAMICAL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERWHELMING WITH THE BULLSEYE TRACKING OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINED WITH AN AIR MASS RICH
IN MOISTURE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY BELOW THE 600-700 MB
LEVEL...LIGHT SNOW COULD BE STEADY AND WILL GENERATE FAIR AMOUNTS
ON TOP OF THE MOUNTAINS. ELECTED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND MESA FOR A 24 HOUR WINDOW
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS
SUCH AS THE ELKS...WEST ELKS...ABAJOS AND LA SALS MAY GET FAIR
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL...BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT AS HIGH.
FOR THE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED BAG
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE. MONTROSE AND PARTS OF THE
GRAND VALLEY COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING...RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY SNOW IN THE EVENING.

FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CHANCE OF ANY
PCPN IS MUCH LOWER AS THE MOIST LAYER DOES NOT REACH THE HIGHWAY
40 CORRIDOR...BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

THURSDAY A SPLIT TROUGH IS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN PORTION PULLS A MILD -26C
COLD CORE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK BUT THERE IS CYCLONIC
COLD ADVECTION AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
JUST ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. THURSDAY NIGHT NW
FLOW SHIFTS THE MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER SE OUT OF THE REGION SO
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CO MTNS. OTHERWISE VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO
DEVELOP A TROUGH ON THE EAST PLAINS. THE RESULTING SOMEWHAT MOIST NW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD FAVOR NW CO MTNS WITH SNOWFALL. THE POLAR FRONT JET
NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY MONDAY THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED SNOWFALL IN NW COLORADO. MODEL BLEND RAISED THE POPS OVER
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COLORADO MTNS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

KVEL WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOCKED IN BY BR OVERNIGHT WITH CALM
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. -SN AND -RA STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER CIGS AT MOUNTAIN
AIRFIELDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE UTAH...SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO AND SW COLORADO
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5500 FT BUT WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. -SN MIXED IN WITH -RA IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOW VALLEY SITES
(KGJT...KMTJ...KRIL) THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE IFR AT THESE SITES. MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL
BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR COZ009-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...JAM


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