Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 220438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

A shortwave trough will continue moving through the area from
northwest to southeast tonight. Isolated to scattered showers will
be associated with this trough and focus on the northern two
thirds of the area, generally north of a line from Moab to
Montrose to Gunnison. Clouds and showers should dissipate from NW
to SE Monday morning through the afternoon. Another little
shortwave will drop through eastern Colorado and graze the
Continental Divide Monday night but the models have flipped flowed
nearly every run on just how far west weather from this trough
will extend. Will tend toward the drier solution as there doesn`t
seem to be enough support to push this activity as far west as the
18z NAM solution calls for.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

By Tuesday morning much drier northerly flow should be over the
area with a strong ridge building over the western states and into
the Great Basin. This ridge should build and move slowly east
through Wednesday initiating a warming trend. By late Wednesday
afternoon the next trough from the Pacific Northwest will be
approaching northern Utah.

The midrange models agree fairly well that the cold front
associated with this front will reach northeast Utah about
midnight Wednesday evening and deal the northern half of CO and UT
a glancing blow Thursday through Friday morning. Right now it
looks like the front will get hung up over the San Juan mountains,
so the lower elevation of the Four Corners area will be the least
affected by it. Friday afternoon through Saturday should see
enough residual moisture and minor reinforcing shortwave troughs
moving over the area for isolated mountain showers over central
and northern CO and UT.

Another ridge will build into the western states with drier
conditions Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at the lower elevation TAF sites
through the next 24 hours. Isolated showers will bring brief MVFR
conditions through about 10z as a trough continues to move across
the area. Another weak disturbance will bring isolated/scattered
shower activity to the northern half of the forecast area by
Monday evening.




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