Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 201739
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1139 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Satellite imagery and analysis show the cold front that moved into
the area from the north of Friday will continue moving south
through the southern mountains this morning. It shouldn`t push
completely through the area, instead becoming quazi-stationary
north to south over and stretching from about Durango to Gateway
then west along the south side the bookcliffs in Utah. Convective
development will focus over the Southern mts. This will bring
cool and relatively dry condition to the area.

The front will then push back to the east tonight and Sunday as
high pressure builds over the Great Basin. The north should be dry
but the south will still have isolated convection.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The forecast models remain in good agreement through next Friday.
Both models do indicate moisture increasing from the south
beginning Sunday evening with precipitable waters increasing to
between 0.80 to 0.88 by Tuesday. As the precipitable waters
increase several vort max will pass over the forecast area and
will result in an increased possibility of showers and
thunderstorms beginning Sunday night, persisting into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday noon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

VFR conditions will dominate. From 20z through 02z isolated
thunderstorms and showers will form over the San Juan Mountains.
The main threats from these storms will be erratic outflow winds
and 10 percent chance of -TSRA at KDRO KTEX.


&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...Larry
AVIATION...Joe



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