Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 060459
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1059 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

A DEFORMATION ZONE AND VERY WEAK OLD FRONT FORMED BY FLOW AROUND
TWO HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION CENTERS...ONE OVER NORTHERN UT AND
THE OTHER OVER SW CO AND NW NM...IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CO AND UT. AND OVERALL LONGWAVE RIDGE CONTROLS
THE FLOW THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RELATIVELY WEAK AND SHORT-
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FORMING OVER ALL THE RIDGES...
WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FOR THE STRONGER ONES...ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET ELEVATION. PWAT REMAINS A TOUCH MOIST
RANGING FROM 0.5 INCH OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE... INCREASING TO ABOUT 1 IN.
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS...SOUTHWEST OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. AS
THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH...THE LOWER PWATS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BIT OF A DOWNTURN IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO STORM MOTION WILL
BE SLOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN US BUT AS THE
WORK-WEEK PROGRESSES...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
ENCOMPASS MOST OF CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPED
COUNTERCLOCKWISE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PWATS BY WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT LEAST AN INCH
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIED THIS EVENING THOUGH A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS EXPECT BUILDUPS
FROM 18Z ONWARDS WITH SOME VCSH NEAR TAF SITES...AGAIN MAINLY DOWN
SOUTH...WITH SOME STORMS POPPING THROUGH 21Z. THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY HAVE SOME PEA-SIZED HAIL...LGT TO MDT RAINFALL AND OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THROUGH ALL THIS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN BY 03Z OR SO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR


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