Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 260541
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1141 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

THE UPPER LOW WAS WORKING INTO SW UTAH THIS AFTERNOON THEN NEAR
GJT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED JET SUPPORTED COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING SETTING OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH VIRGA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY BRIEF
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

TUESDAY THE SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
BEST FORCING ALONG THE ROAN-TAVAPUTS-FLAT TOPS IN THE MORNING. A
SECOND COLDER FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON ALSO
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS
ARE AROUND 7KFT NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SUN BETWEEN HEAVY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WORKS ONTO
THE NE- KS PLAINS. SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT THEN JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

WEDNESDAY THE NEXT LOW DROPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. BRIEF RIDGING
HERE LIMITS SHOWERS TO AFTERNOON MAINLY MTN CONVECTION. THURSDAY
THE NEXT CLOSING LOW WORKS INTO WESTERN ARIZONA FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. AGAIN
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THE LOW SLOWLY WORKS EAST THROUGH SATURDAY BUT IS
REINFORCED ON SUNDAY AS MORE ENERGY DIGS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LINGERING TROUGH. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

BY NEXT MONDAY THIS SERIES OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE OVER
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER HALF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS...MUCH MORE THAN THAT IN THE GFS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

THE LATEST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST COLORADO RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE 09 TO 11Z
TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...SNOW ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL RESULT IN
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS
FAVORED. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST TAF SITES DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BRINGING MVFR CIGS. HIGHER
ELEVATION TAF SITES...KASE AND KTEX...WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL


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