Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 182350

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
550 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Large scale ascent is increasing over our CWA this afternoon
ahead our next system moving over the northern Rockies. Strong
darkening in the water vapor over central NV/UT is also an
indication of the strong jet moving around the base of the trough.
This jet is helping drop the dynamic trop lower in the atmosphere
which is aiding instability but moisture is not being drawn in
ahead of the trough. Looking at webcams there are some showers
over the Uintas but the rain is struggling to reach the lower
elevations attm. Models suggest the convective nature of the storm
will create a few bands of heavier precipitation across the region
with the best focus near the CO/WY border. The northern mountain
will again be favored with this storm for some 2 to 5 inches from
10000 feet upward with some snow also making it down to the Elks.
There is a reflection of a surface boundary with this storm as
well which sweeps across the Southern mountains late this evening
but just does not appear to be enough forcing or moisture with the
front to bring anything meaningful. Cold air infiltrates the
region behind this front and highs on Wednesday will settle below
normal. A few instability showers are possible across the
northern Park Range tomorrow afternoon accumulations will be very
light. A cold night follows and lows Thursday morning continue to
trend near the freezing mark in the lower desert valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A large and broad ridge will then build across the western states
to end the week...moving eastward early next week as the next
trough digs along the left coast. Warm and dry conditions set up
during this period with high pushing back above normal. Breezy
southwest conditions return with the ridge pushing east on Monday
with some moisture being picked up in the flow. Showers look to
stay in the forecast through mid-week in the pattern with high
snow levels as cold air is cut off well to north.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 550 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Showers will be increasing across mainly areas north of I-70 this
evening as a cold front drops southward. The northern and central
Colorado mountains will be impacted as rain changes over to snow
after 03Z and continues through the early morning hours ending
after 09Z. TAF sites most likely impacted by light showers include
KASE and KEGE so kept VCSH in the TAF. Winds will gust 15 to 25
mph with the front with cloud bases lowering to around 6000 ft as
well. Improving conditions will be seen after 12Z Wednesday with
lighter winds and clearing skies. VFR conditions will prevail




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