Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 220534
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016

A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE IS MAKING IT/S WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS OUR NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
THIS AFTERNOON THE ACTIVITY WILL FAVORED IN THE WEST OVER THE
TAVAPUTS/WESTERN ROAN PLATEAUS AND THE UINTA RANGE...THEN SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAIN ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A SOUTHERN MOISTURE
TAP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE MORE OF A PRIMER FOR SHOWERS
GOING INTO SATURDAY...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UPWARD ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER
MANY PLACES IN THE WEST. THIS WILL COME AT A PRICE OF BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALOFT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS BUT FUELS TREND HAVE SHOWN A STRONG GREEN UP THE PAST WEEK
OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016

THE NEXT STORM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO SOME
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP AND WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO STAY NEAR 10K FEET ON SATURDAY THOUGH WILL LOWER
WITH CONVECTION AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM BUT
SOME SKETCHY HIGH PASS ROAD CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT BREAK SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT NORTHERN
PACIFIC STORM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT COOLER...A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND HAVE A
STRONGER UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET SNOW TO THE NORTHERN UTAH AND MUCH OF THE
WESTERN COLORADO HIGH COUNTRY WITH SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO NEAR
MOUNTAIN BASES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES INTO THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE WEST. THIS
SYSTEM IS TRENDING DEEPER AND HENCE DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND
SLOWER...SO STAY TUNED. ANOTHER WEEKEND STORM MAY BE ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT THU APR 21 2016

CHANGES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE INCOMING TROUGH. GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST CO. A FEW CU ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN JUANS AND ACROSS THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS...BUT
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JAM



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