Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271118
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. W/NW WINDS TODAY GRADUALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS
MID-DAY FOR INLAND TAF SITES. LIGHT/VAR WINDS TONIGHT. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER TX TODAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING. CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EXITING THE AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE WINDS REMAIN AROUND
5-10KTS...15KTS AT KGLS.

WEEKEND FORECAST LOOKS LIKE GREAT SPRING WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
89S. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE S PLAINS AS A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE N PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WHICH MAY ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER. GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW ABLE
TO BETTER RESOLVE A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. BOTH MODELS
ARE SPLITTING VORTICITY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
INTER-MTN WEST SAT AND INTO THE PLAIN SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS DO LEAVE
A VORTICITY LOBE BACK OVER THE PACIFIC THAT REACHES THE BAJA
PENINSULA BY MONDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
DEVELOPING TROUGH AND BRING IT INTO TX ON TUE INTO WED. GFS HAS
THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE TUE WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
SLOWER. FORECAST KEEPS 30/40 POPS IN PLACE BUT ALSO ADDED RAIN
CHANCES FOR WED SHOULD THE SYSTEM COME ACROSS THE AREA SLOWER. THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS THE GFS HAD ADVERTISED IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THERE WILL AT LEAST BE
SOME DEEP MOISTURE AS PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.4 INCHES
AND SUPPORT INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION BUT TOO EARLIER TO REALLY DETERMINE
ANY STORM MODE. THIS TIME FRAME WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS NEXT FRI AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. COOLER AIRMASS MAY SETTLE OVER
THE AREA IN TIME FOR EASTER WEEKEND.

39

MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN SUBSIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL LET THE SCA EXPIRE AT 5 AM AND HAVE A
CAUTION STATEMENT THROUGH MID MORNING. TIDES ARE NEAR 1 FOOT BELOW
NORMAL IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE BAYS. AS THE OFFSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE TO RELAX...WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFT AND THEN SW OVERNIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE NEXT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPEARS TO BE
DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  50  79  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  52  80  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  61  74  64  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...33



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