Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251955
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE FROM DEL RIO TO TULSA TO INDIANA WILL BE SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WAVE IN THE GULF MOVES
WESTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND STALLS.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN EXPANDS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AROUND THE BAY THEN
EXPANDS OUT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HEATING TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THE WAVE OVER THE GULF SHOULD UNDERGO LOWERING PRESSURES
AND A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAY KEEP RAIN
CHANCES CONCENTRATED OVER THE GULF PULLING IN DRY AIR FROM
NETX/NWLA...THEN ON THURSDAY `BREATHE` OUT DURING THE DAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INLAND ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE VALUES
INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES OF PW AND ASSUMING THE WAVE STALLS AS ECMWF
DOES ALONG THE LOWER COAST THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL EXIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STORM MOTIONS ARE SLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL JUST HIGHLIGHTING A BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE
WESTERN GULF WITH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS. STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THE MORE
REASONABLE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND FURTHER SOUTH.

ALL OF THE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES WED-SAT AND HAVE PARED BACK PREV TEMPS BY 1-3 DEGREES
AND SO ARE BACK AT CLIMO OR JUST BELOW.


45
&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT EAST WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO BETWEEN 4-5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT EAST FLOW MAY
ALSO DRIVE TIDE LEVELS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 38

&&
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  75  96  75 /  10  30  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  94  76 /  20  50  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  82  91  82 /  30  60  40  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
MARINE...38



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