Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 302148
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THANKS
TO A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSOURI/KANSAS BORDER THAT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE UP AND OVER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE AREA
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS TEXAS.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY DAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A 250MB WARM POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY 6Z SUNDAY. 700MB GFS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REACH 5 DEGREES AND BELOW BETWEEN SUNDAY 6Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. GFS
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN BEGINNING 6Z
SUNDAY THAT DRIES OUT BY 00Z MONDAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST PVA
BETWEEN SUNDAY 6Z TO SUNDAY 18Z. BOTH THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF ALSO
SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...HAVING IT
IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 00Z MONDAY AND TO THE
COAST BY 12 MONDAY. 30KT WAA SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR PLENTY OF LIFT FOR SOME PREFRONTAL RAINFALL. THE RAIN
SHOULD COME TO AN END ONCE THE 850 MB FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...AROUND 12Z MONDAY AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.
ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT AS GFS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN 500-800 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY MAKE INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS HIGH BUILDS IN 549
DM LINE MAKING IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL STAY UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES MOVING EAST...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS GIVING THE CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND LOOK BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE EDGE A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.
13
&&

.MARINE..

WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT BEHIND YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT
SLACKENS. SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 4 TO 6 FEET...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WILL LET CAUTION FLAGS GO AT 4 PM.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE MARINE PACKAGE WAS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY...AS WELL AS RAIN WITH AN
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE
POSING THE PRIMARY THREAT TO MARINERS. AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON MONDAY /WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE
A POSSIBILITY/. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  60  57  64  36 /  10  40  50  60  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              45  61  57  69  41 /  10  20  30  80  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  59  57  63  45 /  10  20  40  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



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