Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210150
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
850 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG INTO NORTHEAST/CENTRAL TX THIS
EVENING AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHERN
COUNTIES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW ACTIVE THE FRONT WILL BECOME
WITH OVERNIGHT MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WITH LOW POPS TOWARDS THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.

OVERALL...ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

48

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/


AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS N TX.
MAIN CONCERNS GOING FORWARD WILL BE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME SHRA/TSRA FROM KCLL TO KUTS
BUT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. RAP/HRRR
TRENDS HAVE FRONT ENTERING KCLL/KUTS 07-08Z TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLY
A LINE OF TSRA SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCTS IN TAFS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. HARD PART TO ANTICIPATE IS IF CIGS GO IFR WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE SO ADDED A 2 HR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THEAT
POSSIBILITY...OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS LOOK REASONABLE.

PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TOMORROW WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE CONVECTIVE
FORECAST. RIGHT NOW HI RES MODELS SHOW FRONT STALLING ACROSS
HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND 16-18Z. TSRA MAY FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT
WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT. SO WITH DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS DECIDED TO ADD TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA FROM
18-21Z WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA FOR KIAH/KHOU/KSGR.

OUTFLOW FROM STORMS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT TOWARDS
KLBX/KGLS BUT NOT LIKELY. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR THOSE TAFS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH VCSH IN THE MORNING AS SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  81  70  82  71 /  40  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  84  72  83  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  82  77  82  77 /  10  50  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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