Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010828
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 AM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WAS
RIDGING INTO TEXAS. DRIER AIR HAD FILTERED INTO MOST OF THE
REGION WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTH. AN MCS
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH
BUT DO EXPECT SOME CIRRUS TO HEAD THIS WAY DURING THE DAY. PW
VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW TODAY WITH VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCHES. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH MAX TEMPS AS THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY
AND EXPECTING A LARGE DOSE OF SUNSHINE. WET GROUND WILL PROBABLY
NEGATE SOME HEATING BUT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IS EXPECTED. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN N-NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SE TX IS CAUGHT
BETWEEN AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANY MCS THAT FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED JUST IN CASE THEY CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THINGS DRY LOCALLY BUT FCST
SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY DON`T SHOW MUCH CAPPING AND PW VALUES
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.3-1.5 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S. KEPT THE CURRENT FCST DRY BUT MIGHT NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ON TUES AFTN. PW VALUES INCREASE FURTHER ON
WEDNESDAY BUT CAPPING INCREASES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WARM INTO THE
LOWER 90S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS. CONDS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.
THE RIDGE BACKS OFF NEXT SUN/MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS. ALL IN ALL...THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF JUNE
LOOK TO BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE CITY OF HOUSTON RECEIVED MORE RAIN THIS SPRING...MAR-MAY...
THAN IT DID DURING THE DROUGHT YEAR OF 2011. DURING SPRING 2015
IAH RECEIVED 26.61 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WAS MORE THAN THE ANNUAL
2011 RAINFALL TOTAL OF 24.57 INCHES. HERE ARE A FEW OTHER UPDATED
MAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SOME OF OUR CO-OP STATIONS...(NORMALS IN
PARENTHESIS): 43

NEW CANEY          13.86 (5.62)
HOU WESTBURY       18.69 (4.89)
RICHMOND           18.31 (4.09)
WHARTON            11.68 (4.00)
CLEVELAND          11.44 (5.37)

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONT WAS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIKED
THE NAM12 WHICH MOVES THE FRONT OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEARBY...AM EXPECTING THE FLOW TO BE DOMINATED
MORE BY THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM12
AND GFS DIFFER A BIT FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS OVER LA AND FAR SE TX INTO WEDNESDAY...
THE SEABREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. AT THE LATEST...THE HIGH
SHOULD DRIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TOO ALL FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW TO GET ESTABLISHED
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS THEN BUILDS ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX CAUSING THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD TO BECOME LIGHTER WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE CYCLE TO THEN
BECOME MORE DOMINATE.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  66  88  69  89 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  68  89  69  89 /  10  10  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  74  83  75  83 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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