Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 282024
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
324 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HRRR STILL DOING THE BEST JOB AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAS NAILED THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR
WHARTON AND COLUMBUS. SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAVE
WANED WITH SKIES PC AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
AT 2 PM. MID LEVELS DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST PER W/W AND
DEWPOINTS INLAND HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BUT STILL
LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGHING EXPECT THE
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE...THOUGH OVER THE
GULF STORMS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO DISSIPATE AND MAY LINGER OVER
THE FAR COASTAL WATERS ALL NIGHT.

00Z MODELS AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME MOISTURE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...ENOUGH THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE TREND OF LOW END ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO THIS
WEEK AND MAY SEE 90-92 DEGREES IN HOUSTON AND WARMER TO THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE STATE BEFORE FLATTENING
WEDNESDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN U.S. AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z RUNS
STILL SHOWS VERY WARM NOSE 800-700MB AND MAY BE ENOUGH CAP TO
HINDER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WILL
UNDERCUT THE MOS POP NUMBERS FOR NOW BUT STILL WITH 30-40 PERCENT.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 45

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING OVERHEAD AND SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WILL
NOT EXTEND THE SCEC FURTHER.

38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  91  70  91  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  89  71  89  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  83  76  83  77 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45


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