Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300238
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
938 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL SWIRL IN RADAR LOOP WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS...NOW JUST OFF
THE CHAMBERS COUNTY COAST...AND CREEPING NORTHWARD. SOME INCREASE
IN A CONVECTIVE BAND LAST FEW HOURS...AND EVEN A FEW WEAK
CIRCULATIONS SO WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SIGNS OF
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TO
BRING MORE RAIN TO FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...MAINLY CHAMBERS
COUNTY...GALVESTON BAY...AND POSSIBLY LIBERTY AND GALVESTON
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE THINK WE ARE DONE FOR THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WILL KEEP 20 POPS INLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

ON SATURDAY...INGREDIENTS STILL IN PLACE FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
PRECIPTATBLE WATERS MAINLY ABOVE 2 INCHES. SOME QUESTION AS FAR AS
HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL HAVE AS MOST MESOSCALE MODELS AND ECMWF KEEP
ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY INLAND.
LATEST NAM RUN ACTUALLY SHOWS A COUPLE OF DIFFERNT BANDS SETTING
UP...INITIALLY AT THE COAST BUT FARTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
GFS LIKEWISE HAS SOME INLAND DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO SATURDAY FORECAST AT THIS TIME...TWEEKING PRECIP
CHANCES LOWER FOR INLAND COUNTIES AS THINK COVERAGE MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED THERE...BUT WILL LET MID SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE MOST PART PCPN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVEN-
ING. PER LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS/ONGOING TRENDS IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST POPS OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MAY BE MORE EAST OF THE REGION/
ALONG THE COAST. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TAFS GOING FORWARD BUT
RELUCTANT TO DROP THE MENTION OF AT LEAST VCSH FOR ALL SITES FOR
TOMORROW GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

AS EXPECTED PARTS OF THE AREA ARE RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4
INCHES PER HOUR ARE EASILY BEING REACHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SMALLEST STORMS. WE ANTICIPATE THIS TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD END UP
BEING CENTERED OFF SHORE AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. WE CONTINUE
TO CARRY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND
NEAR THE COAST. AT THIS TIME WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY
FALL. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES... THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED. RAINS MAY LINGER ON INTO SUNDAY... AND
WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK. 42/99

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  90  75  94  76 /  20  30  20  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  76  92  77 /  30  60  50  50  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  85  81  89  82 /  60  70  50  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99



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