Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260450
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TX WHILE THE FRONT
WAS STILL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES. A MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AVIATION SITES LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST TWO MODELS WERE GENERATING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z MAINLY WEST OF KGLS AND KLBX. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE PREVAILING CONSENSUS FOR JUST A VFR DECK DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE SECOND ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT FOG. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES IS FOR LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE AT 09Z AND 12Z
OVER KLBX AND NEAR KSGR AND WITH LESS CHANCES NEAR KCXO. FELT THAT
WITH THE RAINFALL OF THE PAST AFTERNOON THAT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
FOG WAS POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST KCXO AND KLBX BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 7 PM...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FAR NE SECTION OF
THE HGX CWA FROM ABOUT MIDWAY TO COLDSPRING TO ROMAYOR. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SW OVERNIGHT. DEW PTS ARE IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE LOW/MID 70S AHEAD
OF IT. STILL GETTING A FEW SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND
WILL CARRY CHC/SLT CHC OVERNIGHT BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS LINE OF STORMS.

AT 00Z...PW VALUES AT CRP WERE 1.59 BUT REMAIN NEAR 1.84 INCHES AT
LCH. SHV...BEHIND THE FRONT HAD PW VALUES AT 1.12 INCHES WITH A
VERY DRY PROFILE. 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH
TEXAS WITH A RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR FROM FWD TO SHV. AT 700
MB...THE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MSTR NEAR LCH. HIGH PRESSURE AT 250 MB WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH A WEAK 250 TROF AXIS OVER EAST TEXAS
EXTENDING SW TOWARD LAREDO.

WILL TRIM POPS FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
OTHER VERY SMALL CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS
ON THE RIGHT TRACK. A PNS WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
RAINFALL AND PEAK WIND INFORMATION FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS. 43

CLIMATE...
QUITE A CONTRAST ACROSS SE TX WITH REGARD TO RAINFALL. HUNTSVILLE
RECEIVED 0.06 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. THIS BRINGS THEIR RAINFALL
TOTAL TO 0.31 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. MEANWHILE...HOBBY AIRPORT
PICKED UP 1.81 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY BRINGING THEIR AUGUST TOTAL
TO 10.76 INCHES OF WHICH 10.51 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE AUGUST
11TH. BUSH IAH HAS ONLY RECEIVED 2.94 INCHES OF RAIN IN AUGUST...
CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN HOBBY WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE
SOUTH. MADISONVILLE DID NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY AND IT`S
RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE JULY 1ST IS ZERO. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO GROW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  95  68  97  68 /  20  10  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  95  69  96  71 /  20  10  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  78  92  80 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



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