Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 152320
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds
will decrease as high pressure slides over the area with some high
clouds possibly moving overhead by morning. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
With skies clearing mostly out of SE TX and winds expected to de-
crease tonight, we will likely see some rather cool temperatures
overnight/early tomorrow morning. This quiet/dry weather will be
transitioning to a more active/wet one by the end of the week as
a series of upper trofs/lows develop and move across from the W.
Models remain in fairly good agreement with the timing/tracks of
these systems. The first upper trof is progged to move across on
Friday...but with the best moisture limited to the southern half
of the area (and best lift to the north) will keep with the POPS
currently in place (higher near the coast).

With onshore flow returning/strengthening quickly in the wake of
the Fri system, low-level moisture return is expected to respond
accordingly over the weekend. In the recent tradition of holiday
timed weather events for SE TX...the ingredients do appear to be
coming together for another on Mon/President`s Day. This next up-
per low looks to deepen/approach South TX (perhaps with a slight-
ly negative tilt) Mon and when combined with the progged PWs at/
near 1.8-2 inches and possible embedded disturbances within this
larger pattern, we have to keep close tabs on how the long-range
models continue to evolve. 41

MARINE...
Winds will become light tonight into Thursday as high pressure over
West Texas drifts across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Onshore winds
will return Thursday night as the area of high pressure moves east
and low pressure develops in the Lee of the Rockies. The gradient
will tighten on Friday as an upper level disturbance moves
across the NW Gulf and slightly higher onshore winds are expected.
The upper level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the coastal waters on Friday. The strongest storms should be
farther out in the Gulf beyond 60 nm. The pressure gradient
tightens significantly Saturday night into Sunday and SCEC/SCA
conditions possible by Sunday. A potent storm system will move
into Texas Sunday night and Monday. Strong southeast winds are
expected to persist through Monday with SCA conditions likely.
Seas will increase above 7 feet with the long fetch of southeast
winds. Showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall
along the coast as storms move inland from the Gulf.

Tide levels are slowly responding to lower winds but are still about
1 foot below MLLW. Low water advisory was allowed to expire but
navigating Galveston Bay may still be troublesome until water levels
increase tonight as winds decrease more.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      38  66  48  72  57 /   0   0  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              41  68  50  71  57 /   0   0  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            50  65  58  69  63 /   0   0  10  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...11



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