Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281752
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MORE RURAL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THE COLD
FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AT 17Z TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS AFTER 09Z. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR KIAH ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
DUE MAINLY TO THE FORECASTED POSITION OF THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
A NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...INITIALIZING WESTERN OKLAHOMA CONVECTION. EARLY
MORNING NWP SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS A PRETTY SHALLOW BOUNDARY AND HAVE
IT SLOWLY SAGGING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS THE GRIP OVER
US AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY SO...WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR NORTHERN AREA CONVECTION
WOULD BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROM MORE MESO-DRIVEN PROCESSES
SUCH AS PINEY WOODS THUNDERSTORM COOL POOL/GUST FRONT TRIGGERS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
TO SLIP INTO THE CWA TOMORROW SO...IF ANY UPSTREAM S/W DISTURBANCE
DOES TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH MID-WEEK
..RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE RISE. AN EARLY DAY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE...WITH A JUST A SCATTERED CU DECK...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PUSH TODAY`S INTERIOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...
LOW 90S AT THE COAST. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN FALL WITHIN
THAT 99 TO 104 F RANGE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  76  96  75  96 /  20  30  30  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  95  75  95 /  10  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...40


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