Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 272049
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER SE TX HAS BEGUN TO BREAK
DOWN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SE TX ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLDER AIRMASS
ARRIVING BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST ITEMS OF CONCERN WILL BE
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST ITEM FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON REGARDS ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND EAST OF FREEPORT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE POPS
AT 10 PERCENT BUT MENTION ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE GRIDDED
DATA THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 TO AROUND INTERSTATE 10. THESE
WILL NOT SHOW UP IN THE COUNTY FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT BUT WILL IN
THE POINT AND CLICK FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS RAIN FORECAST LOOKED TO BE FAIRLY ON
TRACK. EVEN WITH A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE JET PATTERN ALOFT...THE
GFSBUFR MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP MAY BE TOO MUCH OF A
PROBLEM TO OVERCOME FOR ANY BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ALSO HANG THE FRONT UP BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING THE LEFT-FRONT
QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SE TX ON
THURSDAY.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
FRIDAY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN BY AROUND MONDAY AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD RETURN BACK INTO THE 80S.

40

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MAY END UP NEEDING
THE CAUTION FLAGS FOR A WHILE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS BUT
PLAN ON GOING WITH ~15KT FOR NOW. WIND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PROBABLY HANG UP NEAR THE COAST BEFORE GETTING A SECONDARY PUSH
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF WINDS/SEAS IN THE WAKE
HOWEVER. BUT AS THE SFC HIGH QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WINDS
WILL VEER BACK TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF
THE SE ON SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

AVIATION...
W/ DAYTIME MIXING...WE`RE STARTING TO SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20KT AT
SOME OB SITES. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTN HOURS THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. DON`T THINK FOG WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT W/ SFC WINDS HOLDING AROUND 6KT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE FOR SOME PATCHY 1500-2700FT CIGS LATER TONIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED VFR. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AT MID MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER SE TX AND THERE WERE SOME CLOUD STREAKS MOVING INLAND FROM
THE GULF. THE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS OCCURRING EARLIER HAD DISSIPATED
AS OF 10 AM.

UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO TAKE OUT THE MORNING MENTION OF FOG. ALSO
TWEAKED THE SKY COVER FOR TODAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  84  65  79  59 /  10  10  20  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  85  66  82  62 /  10  20  10  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  82  71  80  69 /  10  20  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47



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