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000
FXUS64 KHGX 150444
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1144 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF UPDATE

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF REASONING. SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHERN SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...THUS WILL REMOVE MENTION OF VCSH FOR LBX AND GLS FOR NOW.
38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO W C TX WITH A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WRF-ARW AND TX TECH WRF
ARW BOTH SEEM TO BRING LINE OF STORMS FROM W C TX INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY AND TOWARDS SE TX BY 12Z WED. STORMS SEEM TO WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH THE CWA. OVERALL THINK POPS/WX ON TRACK BUT STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A 30-40KT LLJ. BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS IN MID 60S AND WINDS
REMAINING CLOSE TO 7-10KTS.

AS FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT...LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED WITH CAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELLS BUT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
PULSE STRONG STORMS GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY. STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT NOT REALLY SEEING EVEN
A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOWCLOUDS
GRADUALLY BUILDING BACK IN OVERNIGHT. AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN SITES. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR MOST SITES BEGINNING MID
TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS CURRENT CONVECTION KMAF-KFST IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVEL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT THUS ONLY SHRA EXPECTED FOR OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  79  66  83  71 /  30  60  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  80  67  83  70 /  20  50  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  77  70  79  73 /  20  40  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38