Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210943
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE OVERALL FCST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE MESO SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SE TX THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A WEAK S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WNW TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT (EXCEPT FOR INCREASED MID/
HIGH CLOUDS) GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE. THIS MILD/DRY WX SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOWLY CHANGE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS BY
SAT. HOWEVER THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH THERE ARE ALSO SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
WITH EXTENDED PROGS WITH ECMWF MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DE-
VELOPMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW/TROF THAN THE GFS. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.
45

&&

.MARINE...
LOWER PRESSURES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA AND RIDGING OVER
TX/LA WILL KEEP THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCEC THIS MORNING AND
THEN RAISED IT AGAIN AFTER 3 PM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IT
MAY NEED EXTENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD
TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS RELAX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STAY ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  61  84  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  60  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  69  82  69  81 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



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