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000
FXUS64 KHGX 240303
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
903 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST CENTERED AROUND
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AND GENERALLY RAISED THESE A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT A LIGHT
FREEZE IN RURAL AREAS BUT AMPLE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS LOOKS
TO HELP TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT.
ALREADY SEEING A FEW SPOTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS REPORTING FOG /JASPER
NOW DOWN TO ONE-HALF MILE VISIBILITY AS OF 9 PM/. WILL NOT
INCLUDE A PATCHY FOG MENTION JUST YET AS FOG TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
LOCALIZED... BUT AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS
EVENING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A S/WV AND AN INCREASING CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
AFTER 04Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY OVER INLAND TAF SITES BUT
REMAIN GUSTY NEAR KGLS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. 43.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN
AREAS WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY HELP KEEP HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SECONDARY DRY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE WAS FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF HOUSTON. BECAUSE OF THE WET GROUND...FELT THAT THOSE NUMBERS
WERE A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND COMPROMISED WITH THE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUIDANCE. HIGH CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY
BECOME A FACTOR IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. FOR BOTH
NIGHTS...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES STARTING ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN BY THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND USHER IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A MORE ONSHORE
SURFACE FLOW TO RETURN RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY.

40

MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN AN ADVISORY IN THE GULF WATERS UNTIL THE EVENING
UPDATE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS NOT QUITE THERE YET BUT GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS A SLIGHT BUMP UP DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVNG HOURS. BEYOND
TONIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND
FALLING SEAS. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT COULD PUSH INTO
THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING BUT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
ANY FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED ATTM. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      36  59  40  67  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              38  60  39  67  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  57  47  63  49 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4
     AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$