Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT ON RADAR THIS MORNING BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD
SEE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE DAY ACROSS SE TX BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
WV LOOPS/MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY
FROM THE GULF. PROGGED PWS TO RANGE FROM 2-2.1" BY THIS AFTN AS WE
WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 90S. WIDELY SCT/SCT STORMS EXPECTED TO DEV-
ELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. THE INCREASE OF DEEP-
ER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW WITH POPS STAY-
ING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NE. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK FRONT SET
TO FILTER DOWN INTO MUCH OF SE TX OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REBOUND BACK NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS SAT/SUN BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A FACTOR IN KEEPING HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FAIRLY STEADY STRUGGLE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST TO REMAIN OUT WEST. THIS SEEMS TO PLACE SE TX
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKNESS REGION...AND PERHAPS THE POSSIBI-
LITY OF A MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE. BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE WILL
LIKELY ERR ON THE SIDE OF DRY IN THE EXTENDED FCSTS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF LEADING TO SW-W-NW WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 6 TO 12
KNOTS...STRONGER NEARSHORE AND OFF OF GALVESTON IN THE GULF. WE
SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW (W-NW) DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS RELAXING THEN BECOMING
ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF
SLIDES WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO SETX FRIDAY DRYING OUT MOST OF THE
REGION BUT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.

45

&&

AVIATION...
SO FAR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALL THAT DEVELOPED BUT EXPECT TO
SEE A BKN MVFR DECK DEVELOP NEAR BYY-66R-11R AND PERHAPS FILL BACK
IN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE IAH/HOU
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY EXPAND TO A FEW OTHER RURAL
TAF SITES IN THE COMING 2 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS MOST OF THE DAY
VARYING FROM W-NW THIS MORNING TO SW-S-SE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA TODAY EXPECTING TO SEE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. GREATER CHANCES SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF 6R3-IAH-ARM LINE PRIMARILY IN THE 20-01Z TIME FRAME
EARLIER TIMES IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL SHIFTING WEST TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WINDOW. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THOUGH.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  78  99  76 101 /  10  20  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  98  76 100 /  30  30  30  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  81  92 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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