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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221824
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
124 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected today and tonight. Surface high pressure
will keep winds on the low side. The seabreeze was getting started
at 18Z--expect isolated showers in the vicinity of KLBX and
possibly KGLS through 20Z. Depending on how fast the seabreeze
moves inland, KSGR, KHOU, and KIAH may all see at least a slight
chance for a shower between 22Z and 02Z late this afternoon and
early this evening. The KIAH extended forecast for Wednesday
afternoon has a lot of uncertainty due mainly to the upper level
dynamics associated with the upper level low pressure area over
the western Gulf of Mexico today. If this system breaks down as
currently shown in the forecast models, scattered showers and
maybe thunderstorms will be possible.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

UPDATE...
2 inch satellite derived pws surrounding Southeast Texas...with
the region still under the relatively drier 1.6 to 1.7 inch
air mass. Higher moisture residing over the Sabine River Valley
and into the extreme northwestern Gulf is slowly creeping
westward into our far southeastern CWA this morning. Radar shows
this as early day Gulf convection is firing off of Cameron Parish.
Today looking very similar to yesterday in the way the cumulus
field is developing...a slightly earlier start to the cloud deck
with highest rain chances (30%) focused along the nearshore waters
into the coastal and second tier counties. Mid to upper 90s will
equate to heat indices in the 100 to 106 F range this afternoon...
closer to 106 F along the coast where dew points will only mix
out into the middle 70s.

Monitoring the tropical wave over the northern Yucatan peninsula
that is forecast to be over the southern Bay of Campeche this
time tomorrow. Obviously...since the remnants of Harvey are a very
disorganized wave over land...current confidence is very low on
this system`s eventual track. Once this wave does get into the bay
and evolves into closed off low is when the deterministic models
will have a better fix (initiation point) to ultimately increase
confidence in subsequent model tracks. With that being said...now
is the time to review your hurricane plan and begin thinking
about how you will enact your plan in a few days if and when a
tropical cyclone does reach the Texas coastline. Stay tuned! 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      98  76  99  76  94 /  10  10  30  30  30
Houston (IAH)              95  77  96  77  93 /  30  10  30  30  30
Galveston (GLS)            90  82  91  83  91 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...40