Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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291
FXUS64 KHGX 261504
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1004 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Activity moving in from the SW starting to get its act together
this morning as we are beginning to see some lightning with the
storms. Current grids look good - with highest pops over north-
ern counties and slightly lower closer to the coast. PWs around
2" already over the region along with increasing instability to
help things unsettled over SE TX these next couple of days. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Still looking for increasing rain chances across Southeast Texas
over the next two days as a series of disturbances move across the
state and help to ignite shower and thunderstorm development. Best
support/ lift/instability for possible strong/severe storms and
locally heavy rainfall still looks to be setting up across parts
of our western and northwestern counties. However, based on a
number of different scenarios being shown by the models, cannot
rule out some of this risk (especially the locally heavy rainfall)
spreading further to the east and south across the rest of our
area. The primary severe weather threats will be locally heavy
rainfall (and possible localized flooding) along with
strong/damaging winds, frequent lightning and large hail. Rainfall
totals for this Thursday-Friday event are expected to range from 1
to 2 inches in and around the coastal counties to 3 to 4 inches
across our northwestern and western counties. Locally higher
amounts will be possible area wide. Looks like less rain over the
Memorial holiday weekend with lower rain chances and warmer
temperatures. Look for mainly daytime 20% to 30% rain chances
during the first half of next week as weak upper level ridging
attempts to build into the state from the south. The next upper
level trough moving slowly eastward across the state during the
second half of the week has some potential to getting us back into
a wet pattern as we start the new month. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      82  73  82  71  88 /  70  50  70  50  40
Houston (IAH)              84  75  84  73  88 /  50  40  60  40  30
Galveston (GLS)            82  78  82  78  83 /  40  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
     through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 PM CDT this evening
     through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal
     waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston
     Bay...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$



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