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000
FXUS64 KHGX 211024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The passage of the weak cool front has brought drier and slightly
cooler air to SE TX overnight/this morning. However with the low-
er dewpoints (along with clear skies/calm winds) we will also see
some patchy fog across the area through the mid morning hours. Of
note over the nearshore waters, a couple of showers did manage to
develop (moving to the SW). Despite the cooler (than it has been)
start to the day, high temps this afternoon are still expected to
be slightly above normal. However heat indicies should remain be-
low critical levels given the drier air mixing into the region.

Rain chances still progged to return to the region later tonight/
early tomorrow morning via the south as deeper moisture begins to
move in from the Gulf. With the surface high moving off to the NE
and pressure falling over the Rockies, onshore winds will develop
late tonight and slowly strengthen through Sat (as a storm system
develops and moves into western Central Plains). No major changes
with the chance POPs already in the grids for this time.

While in much better agreement with each other with this run...we
are still seeing a lot of discrepancies with extended models from
previous runs. The consensus remains with a highly amplified slow
moving upper low/trof developing out west Sun before it begins to
slowly translate east with an associated cold front. (!!!) Storms
along/ahead of this boundary will keep POPs elevated Mon/Mon nite.
Confidence levels on this panning out: muted optimism. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Northeasterly flow in place this morning with 1-2 foot seas.
Isolated showers a good bet through the morning hours with what
appears to be a boundary from GLS southeastward. Winds should be on
the increase Thursday through Saturday and might even flirt with
SCEC well offshore Friday evening and Saturday evening. Seas should
build to 3 to 5 feet with a long SE fetch.  A little more confidence
that first potent cold front expected to move offshore
Monday...still unsettled on rain chances and timing but overall
pattern looks conducive to pushing the front into the Gulf. Offshore
winds (moderate) prevail Tue-Wed.
45
&&

.Aviation...
Patchy fog leading to rapid fluctuations in VISBY at area airports.
VISBY ranging from 1/2 mi to 6. This pattern should probably
continue through 12-13z then with dry column above expect rapid
warmup this morning with SCT CU rapidly becoming high based by this
afternoon. Can`t rule out some showers for HOU/SGR/LBX during the
afternoon and will likely add VCSH in the upcoming TAF package.
Patchy fog will likely return tonight with warm front poised near
the coast and may see some lower cigs as well from CLL-GLS.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  72  94  75  91 /   0   0  10  10  30
Houston (IAH)              93  73  92  75  89 /   0  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            89  80  89  81  87 /  10  10  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$