Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180549
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE FOR 06Z ISSUANCE AND
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION IS APPENDED BELOW. THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS STILL CENTER AROUND MVFR CIGS FALLING TO IFR
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 11 PM REVEALED THE REGION UNDER A RATHER MESSY
PATTERN...WITH AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM
ROUGHLY COTULLA EAST TOWARDS COLUMBUS. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED NEAR A COTULLA...VICTORIA...FREEPORT LINE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENABLE CEILINGS TO LOWER...WITH
A WINDOW OF LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
THE PROBABILITY FOR RAIN IMPACTING THE TERMINALS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER OOZ TOMORROW...AND CEILINGS LOOK TO LOWER AGAIN BACK
TO IFR.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTER AROUND
DETERIORATING CIGS TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG.

REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 6 PM SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF SEVERAL TERMINALS...HAVING DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS WERE IN PLACE WITH THE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED /AS OF 5 PM/
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EASTWARD INTO THE GULF.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW...EXPECT LIGHT
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO
7 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRESENTLY...VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH IFR TO LOW-END MVFR IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS
BY 06-09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE TAFS BASED ON THE WHERE
THE WARM FRONT ACTUALLY ENDS UP. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BY 09Z AND HANG UP AROUND THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS /ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR/ INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY DROPPING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING.

HUFFMAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  68  56  58  45 /  80  20  80  80  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  74  60  67  47 /  70  70  70  80  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  63  68  51 /  50  50  50  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$


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