Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

619
FXUS64 KHGX 270236
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
936 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Thunderstorm activity moving southwest out of Fort Bend county
down Highway 59 now weakening to just light showers. This lull
will be short-lived, especially for the southeastern forecast
area, or those counties surrounding Galveston Bay. General
troughiness over the north(west)ern Gulf, with a higher plus 2
inch PWAT air mass advecting in on mid-level easterlies, will be
enough to (re)generate offshore convection that will move onshore
through the early Saturday morning hours. Upper ridging has now
retreated back over the mid-Atlantic states with relatively lower
regional heights/pressures providing enough instability (within
this near-saturated column) to maintain moderate to high chance
Saturday daytime POPs for clustered thunderstorms. Lobes of higher
PVA moving onshore from the northwest Gulf, with a near 2.3 inch
pw north-south moisture axis setting up somewhere along the CWA,
and fairly weak sub-20 knot steering flow all signal slow-moving
storms that will be high precipitation producers. Model solutions
target the southern CWA for the highest weekend QPF, or
over counties that are already at (or over) 60% soil saturation.
Thus, if this scenario plays out as forecast over the next 12-24
hours, a Flash Flood Watch may be required for these more
southern counties (wait and see where the early day activity
begins to set up). Overcast and precipitation will make for
another day of a smaller diurnal temperature spread, about 10
degrees; from middle to upper 70 minimums to mid to upper 80
maximum T readings. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
Outflow dominated shra/tsra should wind down in the next few hours
with the loss of heating. Anticipate mainly VFR conditions during
the overnight hours. Possibly some patches of fog should cirrus
clear for a long enough period, but not expecting widespread
issues. Precip should get going near and SE of the Galveston
coastline late tonight and eventually expand inland during the day
Sat with some heating. Potential is there for some heavy downpours
in/around the Galveston Bay & metro area tomorrow. Outside any
convection VFR conditions are again expected. Rinse & repeat Sat
night & Sun.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  89  74  89  74 /  20  40  20  40  30
Houston (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  40  40  40  50  40
Galveston (GLS)            79  86  79  86  80 /  50  60  60  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.