Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 200455
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MVFR
CIGS/VSBY WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. LBX AND GLS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
15Z. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT BUT NOT WITHOUT ITS CAVEATS. A LINE OF EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS FORMED UPON A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN CWA BOUNDARY.
HRRR/WRF SOLUTIONS HAVE HUNG ONTO THIS ACTIVITY AND EXPANDED IT
NORTH WHILE...AT MOMENT...IT APPEARS TO BE FIZZLING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. CRP SOUNDING IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE (NEAR 6K MUCAPE)
AND A RESIDENT SOUTHERN FA AIR MASS IS STILL VERY MOIST (GT TWO
INCH PWS). ALTHOUGH THE OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS NEARLY
WASHED OUT...INLAND MESO-MICRO BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES WILL STILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION.
MORNING NEAR COASTAL INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL
KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE SUNDAY. RECENT STRENGTHENED
WESTERN RIDGING PER HIGHER HEIGHTS AND LOWERING 925-700 MB %RHS
FROM THE NORTH WILL SUPPRESS EARLY WEEK CONVECTION TO JUST AFTERNOON
BREEZE-DRIVEN SLIGHT PROBABILITIES OF ISO SHRA/TS AT BEST. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY AT
MOST TERMINALS OVER NIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. VFR DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.   44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNUSUALLY PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST NEAR
PALACIOS BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BUT INLAND AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EASTWARD.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S BUT THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME SLIGHT RELIEF ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ;HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY LATE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. 38

MARINE...
BOUNDARY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING BACK
NORTH (NICE ROPE CLOUD). WINDS AND SEAS ARE DOWN AND SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS COMING UP A LITTLE TUESDAY AND
BEYOND BUT SHOULD BE BELOW SCEC FOR THE PERIOD. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  94  75  97  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  92  76  97  78 /  20  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  81  91  81 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...44



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