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000
FXUS64 KHGX 250536
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GET
A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTN AND THEN RELAX AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS
BY AN 80 TO 100 KNOT JET LOCATED AROUND 300 MB. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS WHERE
THICKER CIRRUS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR 40
INLAND TONIGHT AND IN THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT /STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL IOWA AT 9
PM/ WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS A SURFACE
TROUGH...PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. THIS...
COUPLED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MIXING TO AROUND
900-875 MB TAPPING INTO SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALOFT... PROMPTED
A TREND UPWARD IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
/NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE/. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MADE AT
THIS TIME.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT SW/W
WINDS OVER THE AREA AND AFTER A COOL START TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO
NEAR 60F. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S. WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAC COAST. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CUT OFF
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE SE U.S. BY MON...UPPER LOW TO RETROGRADE MORE INTO
THE PAC AND FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER TX THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO SE U.S. BY MON
AND BRING DRY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. MON TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES BACK OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SHEARS OUT. THIS LEAVES RIDGING OVER TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CALI/BAJA
COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WITH A STRONGER JET OVER THE N GULF
COAST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THERE ARE STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT
RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL LOOK FOR ANY WEATHER IMPACTS TO BE LOW FOR
THE COMING WEEK.

39

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF ISSUES WITH THE FCST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GENERAL-
LY LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
REINFORCING FRONT LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PICK
N/NWLY WINDS BACK UP BRIEFLY THROUGH MON AFTN...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH MORE THAN SCEC FOR THE MARINE WATERS ATTM. WINDS/SEAS TO SETTLE
BACK DOWN MON NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR SO. ONSHORE WINDS
NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL WEDS...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT AOA THUR
NIGHT IF MODELS VERIFY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      40  66  42  64  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  68  43  64  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  63  47  59  49 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43