Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 191110

Area Forecast Discussion...COR
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Dense fog formation, mainly over more rural expanses, will impact the
region through 9 AM. Another unseasonably warm day expected across
southeastern Texas per the state still being under the influence
of mid to upper level ridging. Broad western CONUS troughing will
begin to work on this ridging through the day, pushing the axis of
the ridge over the southeastern U.S. as lower heights move into
the Plains states. While a more efficient warm air advection
pattern will be occurring through the day, with a higher moist
nearshore air mass moving onshore that will be producing thicker
southern county cloud cover and scattered showers /isolated storm,
there should be enough breaks in the clouds to again warm many
interior locations to 90 F or slightly higher. As has been the case
these past few days, a few maximum temperature records will be
threatened (please see Climate section below).

A pre-frontal trough ahead of a main cold front in the vicinity of
the Red River Valley will pass through this time tomorrow, a few
hours on either side of sunrise. The primary surface cold front
will travel across the region tomorrow afternoon, reaching the
coastline during the early Thursday evening hours, as the upper-
mid trough axis advances east into the lower Mississippi River
Valley. The highest probability for widespread rain (showers) with
embedded storms within more organized convection will impact the
area during the day Thursday. A thin line of convection (just ahead
of the main front) has a good chance of affecting the northern
forecast area. Higher PWAT air coming ashore will allow -TSRA
clusters to form and move north, possibly merging with that northern
line to create a more organized line of convection that will move
off the coast latter in the afternoon into early evening. Overall,
the chances for the majority of the CWA to receive measurable rain
is high, but overall accumulations should remain low, or under an
inch. The bulk of the cold and dry advection will occur on Friday,
moderate northerlies scouring out the skies and regulating afternoon
warmth to the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Autumn finally arrives this weekend, clear skies with a weak veering
easterly breeze. The temperature forecast calls for seasonable
afternoon warmth in the upper 70s to lower 80s, near calm clear
overnights/morning conditions conducive for a significant chill out
as interior readings fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday /
middle to upper 50s Sunday morning. Upper ridging that will envelope
the state over the weekend will begin to move east early in the work
week with onshore flow returning Sunday. Weak disturbances moving up
within the southwesterly flow pattern, along with surges of near 1.4
inch precip waters off the Gulf, will generate periods of mainly
coastal/southern county showers from Monday afternoon through the
last full week of the month. 31


Today`s Maximum Temperature Records (Year) with forecast:

CLL    97 (1921)      92
IAH    94 (2004)      92
HOU    90 (2004)      91
GLS    86 (2004)      88


Tides are running 0.75-1.0 ft above normal. Will probably see
observed water levels near 3 ft a few hours before/after the
high tide this evening (844pm). This would put water close to or
slightly over parts of the Highway 87 @ Highway 124 intersection.
Don`t expect any other locations to have issues.

Onshore flow 8-15kt will persist thru tonight. Prefrontal trof will
move into the coastal waters Thurs morning w/ just light offshore
winds in its wake. Winds will begin picking up before sunset and
substantially increase Thurs evening and overnight as the front itself
and cooler airmass arrives. Small craft advisory will be required into
parts of Friday until speeds/seas begin to diminish. Onshore flow
resumes Sat night as high pres moves off to the east.  47


Areas of dense fog have developed between KCLL & KIAH. This should
burn off by mid morning and conditions should lift back into VFR
territory. There is a bit more moisture around today and do anticipate
scattered showers to develop ~17-22Z inland with daytime heating.
Warm layer of air aloft will limit tstm chances however. Patchy
fog again possible overnight (along with some sct precip near the
coast and offshore). Cool front and bkn band of shra will approach
KCLL mid morning Thurs and metro area toward lunchtime. Winds
will shift to the north, but there will probably be a lag of
several hours until the gustiness arrives.  47



College Station (CLL)      93  70  81  52  77 /  20  30  40  10   0
Houston (IAH)              92  72  85  56  79 /  30  20  40  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            88  78  83  67  76 /  30  30  50  10   0


TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: Austin...Colorado...Fort Bend...Grimes...Harris...
     Liberty...Montgomery...San Jacinto...Waller...Washington.



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