Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 042349
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.AVIATION...
Expect patches of mainly -RA this evening with IFR/LIFR ceilings. SHRA
coverage will increase overnight through tomorrow morning as the storm
system moves eastward across the state. Best chance for TSRA should
be setting up near the coast and offshore where best instability will
be found. Look for rains to come to an end area wide tomorrow afternoon
and evening with gradually lifting ceilings.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Steady light rain has fallen for a good portion of the day...but
rates haven`t been a problem even for those that`ve seen the most
impressive totals this weekend.

A coastal low is fcst develop off the lower coast tonight and move
toward the upper coast thru early afternoon Monday as the upper
trof kicks out of Mexico. Looking for another round of precip to
develop and move into the area as this occurs. Heaviest activity
should be situated off the coast closer to the advancing warm
front. Another focusing area, but likely less significant, will
be further inland where substantial speed convergence was noted at
H85. Have reconfigured the FF Watch to just include the region
near Galveston Bay who have seen the more significant rain to
date - and where the potential is higher for stronger cells later
tonight/Monday. Will let the overnight shift adjust further if it
becomes necessary.

Precip should taper off for most places in the afternoon as the
low departs, though wrap around -ra remains possible to across n
parts into late aftn. A weak frontal boundary will move into the
region late Tue but eventually wash out. Overall...a break in the
wx is expected until late Wed.

Next much stronger front will arrive Wed night. Looking like
there will be enough moisture for some sct precip to develop in
advance. Much colder and drier in its wake. Looks like a freeze
threat for areas north of Highway 59 & I-10 Fri morning. Slow
warm-up going into the weekend. 47

MARINE...
Low pressure is forecast by a model consensus to form off the lower
Texas coast and then move up into the upper Texas coastal waters
later tonight and on Monday. As it does so, a warm front will move
to just along the immediate coastline. The pressure gradient was
already tightening up at mid afternoon with advisory conditions in
place over the offshore waters. Gusts up to near 30 knots are
possible tonight. Winds will diminish on Monday as the low moves
east of the area.

Tides are forecast to approach 2.8 feet at the time of high tide
early this evening at the Galveston Bay Entrance. More easterly
winds are expected to develop this evening, but the tide will be
falling throughout the late evening and overnight period. During the
time of high tide early this evening, wave runup may help to cause
some minor flooding especially along gulf-side low-lying locations
and highways along the immediate coast.

Later this week, a strong cold front is expected to move off of the
coast Wednesday night. Strong offshore winds behind the front may
gust to gale force by overnight Wednesday night through most of the
day on Thursday. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      49  58  45  69  46 /  80  80  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)              52  60  49  70  50 /  90  90  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            59  66  58  68  62 /  90  90  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following
     zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Harris...Liberty.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CST Monday for
     the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42



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