Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 251140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings this morning expected to become VFR later
this morning and this afternoon. Seeing once again this morning a
mix in model solutions on possible SHRA/TSRA coverage today. Have
leaned toward the drier solutions for the 12Z TAFs until tonight
when first of several rounds of SHRA/TSRA possibly moves eastward
across the area (VCSH starting at 06Z). Better TSRA chances could
get here as early as tomorrow morning, so have VCTS beginning at
26/15z for IAH. Look for more widespread SHRA/TSRA on Friday. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
The boundary layer remains quite moist for May with surface dew
points in the mid to upper 70s across much of southeastern TX
early this morning. This will maintain very humid conditions
across the region once again today as temperatures warm through
the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Shortwave ridging will remain
in place aloft with mid and high level clouds overspreading much
of the state. The ridging will also keep rain chances fairly low
today. However, given the amount of moisture in place, we could
see a few light showers develop with peak heating so will maintain
slgt chance wording for a stray shower today.

Rain chances increase tomorrow into Friday as well defined
mid/upper level low now off the southern CA coast ejects across
the southern Rockies as an open wave. This resultant increase in
ascent should promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over
central TX Thursday which may develop/spread into southeast TX in
the afternoon/evening. Have kept highest PoPs over western and
northern counties tomorrow. Rain/tstm chances will likely increase over
most of southeastern TX on Friday as deep ascent overspreads east
TX. PWs will remain unseasonably high, with increasing
instability both afternoons, so any thunderstorm(s) would be
capable of very heavy rainfall. SPC day 3 SLGT Friday seems
reasonable given the thermodynamic setup and modest deep layer
shear. Evolution may be quite messy, and could see a MCS evolve
from stronger storms north and west of the area late Thursday
sustaining themselves into southeast TX on strong moisture feed early
in the day Friday. Should see a broad area of 2+" rainfall totals
Thu-Fri across the north from College Station through Huntsville,
lowering to an inch or less towards the coast. Setup could favor
excessive rainfall on Friday, depending on storm evolution, as
evidenced with day 3 SLGT from WPC. Will hold off on enhanced
wording/flash flood watches for now, but would not be surprised if
things get active to end the work week.

GFS and Euro both suggest we remain in warm/moist conditions
through the holiday weekend and keep unsettled forecast with
chance/slgt chance PoPs and highs in the upper 80s /lower 80s
along the coast/ each day.

Evans

MARINE...
Moderate to occasionally strong southeast winds and building seas
can be expected through the end of the week as a storm system moves
moves across the Plains states. Small craft advisories will be
needed Thursday night through Friday night. Improving conditions
are expected over the Memorial Day weekend as the storm system moves
away from Texas.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      88  74  82  72  81 /  20  30  70  40  70
Houston (IAH)              88  75  84  74  83 /  20  20  50  30  70
Galveston (GLS)            83  77  82  77  81 /  10  10  30  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
     waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...48
Aviation/Marine...42


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