Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE CENTER AROUND PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG/STRATUS TUESDAY
MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENABLING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED AN MVFR TEMPO AT KCXO... WITH IFR
TEMPOS AT KSGR AND KLBX... THROUGH 13Z. ANTICIPATE SHALLOW FOG TO
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY MIDDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS /AND STRONGER GUSTS
TO 20 KTS/ THIS AFTERNOON. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS THIS
EVENING...WINDS WILL DECREASE ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT
MAJORITY OF TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THIS IS LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT OCCURS TODAY. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ANY CIGS VFR /BKN035/ BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED IN LATER FORECASTS.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM LA THROUGH SETX TO S TX WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM MONTANA INTO COLORADO. TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE BAJA AND INTO ARIZONA
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER SETX ON LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. SO FAR THE FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
CLEVELAND AREA AND PERHAPS SPLIT CHANNEL SATELLITE HINTING AT
CROSBY AND MANVEL AREAS. EXPECT THE FOG AREA TO EXPAND BUT WITH
SOUTH WINDS STILL ONGOING FOG MAY NOT GET AS THICK AS YESTERDAY.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBSERVATION IN THE EVENT WINDS DROP OFF AND
FOG THICKENS.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S. COLD FRONT
OVER KANSAS WILL PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY SLIM CHANCES FOR RAIN/SHOWERS
BENEATH THE CAP. THE UPPER TROUGH LEAVES IT BEHIND AND FRONT GOES
NEARLY STATIONARY. LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
THE MOIST ADVECTION AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR NEXT S/W
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO INCREASE LIFT OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES. CAP ERODES WEDNESDAY BUT CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE WARMUP
AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BEST RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTH. AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL TAP INTO COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND SHOULD PUSH A SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING DRYING THE AREA NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES FOR MINS MAY NEED LOWERING GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROUGH IN THE WEST SHOULD TAP
INTO TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND RAMP UP THE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
45

MARINE...
ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW HAS CONTINUED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY WITH BOTH BUOYS AS OF 08Z REPORTING WINDS AT 14 KTS. THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR WINDS TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS
/CAUTION LEVELS/ FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GIVEN BORDERLINE
WINDS...WILL HOLD OFF ON CAUTION STATEMENTS BUT THEY MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE RECEIVING A STRONGER PUSH THAT SENDS IT OFFSHORE
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS
WAKE WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  66  84  65  80 /  10  10  10  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  67  85  66  82 /  10  10  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  73  83  71  79 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...14



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.