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000
FXUS64 KHGX 031806
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1206 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS ISSUANCE WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION TYPE
LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. COLD NEAR SURFACE AIR IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...PRODUCING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN. SEE
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

CLL/CXO...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN EXISTS AT THESE TWO
SITES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER FURTHER NORTH AND CXO IS
FORECAST TO LIE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM HAVE A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP WHICH PASSES OVER
AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND
LIKELY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THESE SITES HAVE INTRODUCED
FREEZING RAIN INTO THE TAFS.

UTS...CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXIST AT UTS AS
WITH CLL AND CXO BUT GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
EXACT TIMING AS UTS WILL LIKELY FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MENTIONED ABOVE...THUS ONLY A PROB30 FOR
FZRA IS MENTIONED.

IAH/HOU/SGR...FORECAST IS MOST DIFFICULT FOR THESE TERMINALS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR DETERMINING WHETHER FZRA OR RA
IS OBSERVED. MODELS ALL HAVE SITES IAH SOUTHWARD REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE BUT OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH SHALLOW
COLD LAYERS...THUS PROB30 FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THESE SITES.
DURATION AT HOU IS LESS THAN IAH DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT HOU
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER.

LBX/GLS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND ONLY A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND LOWERING CEILINGS DURING PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL.

AS WITH ALL WINTER WEATHER EVENTS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CHANGES IN
TIMING AND PTYPE ARE POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE TAF PACKAGES. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS FINALLY THINNING OUT OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THIS IS MUCH
NEEDED TO HELP WARM IT UP. TEMPERATURES AT 9 AM WERE 25-30 OVER
THE INLAND AREAS AND 30-35 OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. STRONG CAA
IS STILL GOING ON AND WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20 WERE THE
NORM. CONCERN NOW SHIFTING TO TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS A PAIR OF
S/W HEADS THIS WAY FROM MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THOUGH WE SHOULD
WARM UP TODAY WITH THE THINNING CLOUDS AND WEAKENING CAA THE
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND NEAR 40 NORTH. WEAK S/W NEAR TORREON/MATAMOROS MEXICO SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TO MOISTEN UP THE MID
LEVELS AND SHOULD BRING BACK IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW
FREEZING QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR MATAGORDA BAY AND OVER THE LOWER
COASTAL WATERS THEN EXPANDS NORTH AS AN IMPRESSIVE EXIT REGION
LIFTS NORTH WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 6AM. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION
AND THESE COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
AFTER 11 PM THROUGH NOON. THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT SO FAR THIS
MORNING WITH WHERE THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL SET UP AND IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT A WINTER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHWEST AREAS.
STAY TUNED. WILL BE EXTENDING THE SCA UNTIL 6 PM AS WELL.
45/38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND
21Z TODAY. THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATES CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER 09Z AT KCLL AND KUTS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AT KCXO. AS OF NOW...THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM KIAH SOUTH
TO THE COAST.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014/

WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS BROUGHT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
20S OVER THE NORTH...UPPER 20S CENTRAL AND UPPER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NORTH
AND HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO INCLUDE COUNTIES
NORTH OF US HWY 59. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST TODAY AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF BUT THE GRADIENT IS STILL VERY TIGHT
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM.

THINGS GET INTERESTING TONIGHT AS A STRONG S/WV APPROACHES SE TX
FROM THE WEST. PWATS IN CREASE TO AROUND AN INCH WHICH IS
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS COLD AIR MASS. SE TX WILL ALSO LIE IN A 250 MB
JET COUPLET. RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND OVERSPREAD SE TX. TEMPERATURES ARE CRITICAL AND IT APPEARS
THAT AREAS NORTHWEST OF A WHARTON TO TOMBALL TO CLEVELAND LINE
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST A PART OF
TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE
BETWEEN 09-18Z SO FEEL RAIN WILL BE LIKELY BUT THE CAVEAT IS HOW
COLD WILL IT BE. THE THERMAL PROFILES ALSO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ICE PELLETS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BUT FEEL THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. HAVE ADDED FREEZING
RAIN TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 9-10 AM. THE
CITY OF HOUSTON IS ON THE CUSP OF FREEZING/NON FREEZING TEMPS.
ELEVATED ROADWAYS/BRIDGES...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH SIDE COULD GET
A BIT ICY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE S/WV WILL EXIT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AFTN AND RAIN WILL END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF SE TX ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
TO THE NE OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN BUT AT LEAST
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM. THU/FRI STILL LOOK TO BE THE BEST
DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE FEATURES SHOULD BRING
RAIN TO SE TX SAT NITE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. 43

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT
PSX WHILE A PLATFORM JUST SOUTH OF MATAGORDA BAY HAD A WIND GUST TO
39 KNOTS AT 0945Z. THE MODELS CONFIRM THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLOWLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE BAYS AFTER NOON AND THEN THE
GULF WATERS BY 6 PM.

ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW AND MOVE EAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  26  45  38  58 /   0  40  60  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              42  32  44  38  57 /  10  20  70  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            45  38  47  45  57 /  10  30  70  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38