854
FXUS64 KHGX 071647
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- A daily risk of showers and thunderstorms continues through the
  end of the week. Not every location will receive rain every day.

- Locally heavy thunderstorms capable of localized flooding
  cannot be ruled out.

- Seasonably hot and very humid conditions to prevail through the
  forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Our region is beginning to feel the influence of a mid/upper low
that is currently in the Gulf, centered south of Louisiana. This
low will continue it`s slow westward progression over the next few
days, enhancing shower/thunderstorm chances across southeast
Texas through Wednesday. By Thursday, SE Texas may experience the
influence of another trough that builds southwestward from the
Midwest into the Arklatex. With continuously high PWATs in place,
the added lift from these mid/upper disturbance will result in
daily shower/thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. Not
every community will receive rain each day. But those that do
could experience locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
Ridging may try to build by the end of the week / weekend. But
long range models have consistently over estimated ridging beyond
5 or 6 days. When looking at the day-to-day forecast, you may
notice that Friday`s rain chances are the lowest of the week. This
is due to the lower PWATs indicated by the global models on that
day.

Regarding temperatures, inland afternoon highs are expected to
average in the low/mid 90s, with coastal areas generally around
90. It will remain quite humid. A few areas may achieve the upper
90s by the end of the week if ridging manages to build enough.
Generally speaking, these values are pretty normal for this time
of year. But even normal southeast Texas July heat is hazardous,
especially to sensitive groups (example: elderly and young
children) and for people doing moderate to strenuous physical
activity outside.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Scattered shra/tsra expected this afternoon. Locally heavy tsra
possible. Shra/tsra should diminish this evening. Mostly VFR
conditions through the TAF period. However, sub-VFR conditions are
likely within heavier tsra. There may also be localized areas of
MVFR cigs and vis tomorrow morning. Shra possible tomorrow morning
south of I-10, expanding farther inland by the afternoon. Tsra
will be possible again by the afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected most days this
week. Winds through the middle of the week will generally be from
the south in the 10-15 knot range with occasionally gusts. Seas
should generally be 2-3 feet. However, winds and seas are expected
to increase somewhat by the end of the week. Some of the models
are showing a relatively large 15-20 knot fetch developing over
the Gulf, suggesting that the current forecast of 4 foot seas in
our offshore zones is a little low. Coudln`t rule out higher seas
if the larger fetch scenario pans out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  74  91  73 /  50  10  40  10
Houston (IAH)  92  76  92  75 /  60  10  70  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  83  90  82 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self