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000
FXUS64 KHGX 050220
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
820 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 7 PM...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PARIS TO ABILENE
TO NORTH OF MIDLAND. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY CROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z NAM 12 AND RAP13 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS COLLEGE STATION AROUND 12Z AND WILL CROSS HOUSTON
AROUND 15-16Z AND OFF THE COAST BY 21Z. FOR TONIGHT...FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE COAST AND ADJACENT
WATERS. DEW PTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND WATER TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S. THIS SHOULD YIELD EPISODES OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS ARE SE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
SW COMPONENT. WINDS ALOFT STILL A BIT STRONG SO NOT SURE HOW FAR
INLAND THE SEA FOG WILL PENETRATE. THAT SAID...STILL FEEL PATCHY
FOG IS A GOOD BET WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 00Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW PWATS AT 1.52 INCHES SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPED PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE SOUNDING IS
SATURATED BELOW 850 MB BUT PRETTY DRY ALOFT SO MAYBE THE PRECIP
WILL JUST BE DRIZZLE. HAVE ALREADY TWEAKED WEATHER GRIDS TO ADD
PATCHY FOG. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH A FASTER
DROP ON THURS MORNING. NEW ZONES OUT BY 900 PM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SURFACE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE INLAND SITES BY
LATE THIS EVENING. SEA FOG WAS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS AND BAYS. EXPECT THE SEA FOG TO LOWER
CONDITIONS AT KGLS TO VLIFR BY AROUND 02Z. THE FOG WILL LIKELY
PUSH INLAND OVER KLBX SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. WILL UPDATE IF THE FOG
PUSHES INLAND FASTER. THE FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT KHOU...AND THE BEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO
PUSH INLAND TO KIAH. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG
FORECAST IS LOW AND WILL SEE HOW THE TRENDS GO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND UPDATE IF NEEDED. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THESE MAY LOWER TO LIFR IF THE GUIDANCE PANS OUT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
BRISK ONSHORE WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY
AS THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY AT DAYBREAK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BY
MIDDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S BY SUNSET. LIGHT
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
THE REGION AS A JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WE FALL
INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
SITUATION IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...THERE IS A CHANCE TO SEE
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIXED IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ACROSS
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM...TO
CONROE...TO LIVINGSTON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN THE
PRIMARY WINTER THREAT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW
AND LIKELY TOO WARM FOR SLEET...GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT REACHES THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
JUST A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM 24 HOURS AGO BUT IT WILL STILL
SUPPORT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE
FORECAST LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ARE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BE SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN NEARLY 3 YEARS...SINCE FEBRUARY 2011.

38/99

MARINE... DENSE SEA FOG WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE
MID MORNING HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD END ANY FOG THREAT BUT WILL
USHER IN STIFF NORTH WINDS WITH SCA CONDITIONS AND GUST NEAR 30
KNOTS. THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  64  36  39  29 /  10  50  70  70  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  74  44  45  35 /  10  50  60  70  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  75  54  54  43 /  10  40  60  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43