Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 200215
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
915 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast for isolated showers and thunderstorms that have
developed across the south-central Texas Panhandle and the
northern South Plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 701 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Convection from this morning has muddied up the atmosphere a bit
for convective chances for the remainder of the afternoon.
However, it looks as though there may be a narrow area to see
convection continue to develop through late afternoon. Clearing
clouds have allowed temperatures to warm to values ranging from
the lower to mid 80s over the southern Rolling Plains south of a
stalled out cold front. This stalled out front has also allowed
for weak convergence over the Rolling Plains. Ample low level
moisture was still in place with surface dew points in the lower
60s. These temperatures have warmed enough to break the cap with
mixed layer instability only on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Strong shear still present will continue to support a potential
for severe storms.

The stalled out cold front will make a stronger push through the
region tonight. The upper low currently spinning over Colorado
will move out onto the Plains on Saturday but cooler and drier
surface air will filter in behind the front. A pseudo rex block
will form off the west coast early next week setting up the next
potential convective chances although we will mostly be in
northwest flow aloft. An increase in jet level winds will occur on
Monday as a short wave from the northwest skirts the area Monday
night. Moisture recovery will be fairly weak ahead of this short
wave from the northwest which may limit the amount of significant
convection on the South Plains. Models are in good agreement in
moving a front through the area during the day on Tuesday. This
front will plow down well into the Gulf of Mexico which will keep
low level moisture at bay for a while.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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