Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 190431
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1131 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.UPDATE...
The latest guidance has backed off on the extent of low stratus
and fog across the area for early Wednesday morning. We have
tapered back the category reductions at TAF but have kept a period
of IFR ceilings. Very low confidence at both KPVW and KLBB keep us
with just a hint of light fog and a few shreds of stratus at both
terminals. VFR conditions should be in store the remainder of the
day as dry S-SW winds develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017/

AVIATION...
After VFR prevails through about 09 UTC, the main aviation
concern will once again be the potential for low ceilings and fog
in the vicinity of the terminals. Confidence is highest that KCDS
will see IFR conditions, and possibly a period of LIFR.
Confidence is quite a bit lower at KPVW and KLBB, but if fog and
low stratus does develop, conditions could quickly go IFR or even
LIFR for a time. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning as
the airmass begins to dry out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017/

SHORT TERM...
An upper level high pressure ridge will pass overhead tonight with
mostly thin cirrus. Low level flow will remain south to southeast
and moist. Fog and stratus seems most plausible again over the
Rolling Plains in-line with short-range solutions, but also not
impossible again over the eastern and central parts of the High
Plains, though only in a very thin layer near the ground.
Temperatures tonight should be a notch or so milder than this
morning.

On Wednesday, an upper level trough will eject from the Rockies to
our north but will flatten and increase mid level flow just a bit.
Surface low pressure will deepen slightly and pull a little further
east into the high plains, with veering and drying southwesterly
breezes. The dry-line will push east to the Caprock edge but is
expected to remain capped and inactive. Morning low clouds should be
more brief over the Rolling Plains. Highs Wednesday will climb into
the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s. RMcQueen

LONG TERM...
A shortwave trough traversing the Midwest will send the tail end of
a cold front through most of the CWA on Thursday, though it may
stall out over the southern Rolling Plains in the afternoon. Gusty
northeasterly winds sustained at 20 to 30 mph will visit much of the
southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains for a period behind the
front before weakening during the afternoon. Some lower clouds may
also fill in behind the front and there is a slim chance of storm
development along the front where it stalls. However most NWP are
dry near the front Thursday afternoon and given little in the way
of progged frontal convergence and lingering CIN have maintained
PoPs around 10 percent. Elevated storm chances will increase
Thursday evening/night...favoring the northern/northeastern
zones...as the next storm system begins to approach from the west
and isentropic upglide increases above the front. The latest NWP
are in decent agreement that the next trough or upper low will
emerge to our north though there are some differences in its exact
track and strength. Dry and gusty westerly winds will spread
across the South Plains south of the trough/low. Wind speeds
sustained at 20 to 30 mph look like a good bet and if the stronger
GFS is correct we may push up into wind advisory territory. Did
not go quite that aggressive as the GFS but did boost wind speeds
above the blended guidance. A strong cold front will follow the
system Friday evening with gusty northerly winds most of the night
likely remaining breezy through much of Saturday before finally
dropping off Saturday evening. Temperatures will drop below
average...with highs mostly in the 60s Saturday after venturing
well into the 80s for all but the northern zones the previous
afternoon.

Sunday morning will likely yield the coolest morning (although
Saturday morning won`t be much warmer...with a wind chill too) when
lows dip into the lower and middle 40s as a 1026 mb high settle over
the region. The northwest zones could even make it into the 30s
though at this point it looks like they should stay just mild enough
to stave off a late season frost. A gradual warming trend will
follow, particularly by early next week when southerly winds
return and progressive upper ridging passes. Eventually another
disturbance is expected to approach the region toward the middle
of next week, though whether it is more of a wind-maker or rain-
maker remains to be seen.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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