Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

272
FXUS64 KLUB 171707
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY
CAUSE LOW CIGS AND VISBYS TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITE BUT ESPECIALLY
KCDS. HOWEVER...CHANCES OF THIS ARE LOW AT THE MOMENT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC UA LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED NE TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IMPACTING ERN TX AND POINTS NORTH TO ERN NEBR PER 0730Z WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...A QUASI-
STATIONARY PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS...WHICH IS EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY VERSUS 60S EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT
AT THE BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS /10-20 MPH/ GRADUALLY DECLINING IN
SPEED THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILST FILTERING IN TO ACROSS THE FAR
ROLLING PLAINS AND THUS SHUNTING THE BOUNDARY EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE
DIFFICULTY IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. WITH
THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE REMAINING EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE /PWATS DROPPING TO 0.40-0.60
INCHES/ AND WITH THE UA LOW PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS NEWRD
TRACK...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FLEETING. AS SUCH...A QUIET AND
DRY DAY IS ON TAP WITH MODEST S-SW BREEZES AND HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE 70S AND 80S. TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE WILL COMMENCE ITS RETREAT
TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SRN SOUTH PLAINS.
SRLY FLOW AND HENCE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MAKE A RETURN /PWATS
INCREASING TO 0.75-1.00 INCH ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/. MODEL
SOLUTIONS EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IS THEREFORE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR
ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
STILL APPEARS AN ACTIVE WEEK IS IN THE OFFING WITH SPLIT FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK AND WITH THIS FLOW
CONTINUING TO BRING A STEADY DIET OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FORMING
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT EJECTION EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOWS WILL BRING
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. DESPITE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN THESE TWO PERIODS /IE WEDNESDAY/ COULD
SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIME AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED INTO THE FCST AREA. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING WITH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEEK AND TEMPS FROM NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL /TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE CASE OF TUESDAY OR
POST-FRONTAL COOL AIR MASS IN THE CASE OF THURSDAY/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  80  56  70 /   0  10  60  70
TULIA         50  80  56  68 /   0  10  60  70
PLAINVIEW     51  80  58  70 /   0  10  60  70
LEVELLAND     52  82  59  74 /   0  10  60  70
LUBBOCK       54  83  60  74 /   0  10  60  70
DENVER CITY   54  82  60  76 /   0  20  70  70
BROWNFIELD    56  84  59  75 /   0  20  60  70
CHILDRESS     57  86  62  71 /   0  10  50  70
SPUR          60  84  62  74 /   0  10  60  70
ASPERMONT     62  88  64  79 /   0  20  60  70

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.