Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 071726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1126 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR through the TAF period with mid and high deck ceilings
through the day and clearing later this evening. Winds will
become gusty out of the north-northwest mid morning on Friday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/

One final piece of shortwave energy was diving southward over the
Four Corners region early this morning. It was enhancing the lift
over the region which was resulting in the development/expansion of
mid-level clouds across a good chunk of the South Plains area. This
added lift was also boosting the coverage of the light precipitation
detected by radar from southeast New Mexico into the Permian Basin
and far southern and southwestern South Plains. The Denver City WTM
has recently recorded 0.04" of liquid (between 1 and 2 am), which
with surface temperatures of 33 degrees and no warm nose aloft, is
likely falling as snow. This is supported by Carlsbad`s and Wink`s
observations showing similar temperatures and light snow. The
snowfall over our far southwestern South Plains isn`t expected to
last long though as much drier air, with dewpoints in the teens, has
invaded all but our southern most CWA, and this air will advect into
this region in the next couple of hours. This should effectively
shut off the precipitation in our FA, though the mid-level clouds
may hang around well into the day. These clouds along with Canada
generously sharing another batch of their home-brewed air will
keep temperatures on the cool side. Highs will only recover into
the upper 30s and lower 40s which will go nicely with breezy
northerly winds today.

The upper level trough axis will pass tonight and with mostly clear
skies and the dry air in place it will be chilly, though a return to
weak downslope winds may mitigate the cooling somewhat. Regardless,
lows well down into the 20s will be common, with some teens on the
Caprock possible. Gusty northwesterly to northerly winds will follow
on Friday, but it will actually be a "warming" wind and this will
allow temperatures to recover to near average. Even warmer
weather is expected this weekend as the meridional flow across the
center of the CONUS backs to northwesterly and heights/thicknesses
build locally. Highs on Saturday will rebound into the lower to
middle 60s, with middle to upper 60s common Sunday. A quick moving
Clipper system is then progged to dive out of Canada and through
the Midwest, with the lift and bulk of the cooling associated with
it directed well to our northeast. Still, northwest Texas may get
a glancing blow from the cold front with minor cooling early next
week. After that it appears we will generally remain on the warm
side of the positive PNA pattern into the middle of next week with
no signs of precipitation.




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