Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 291735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS THAT COULD IMPACT KLBB. WE HAVE HINTED AT
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS...CEILING REDUCTIONS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH WILL
PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NW...BUT WIND GUSTS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 12 TO 18 KT RANGE WITH THE FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR AND DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY AND MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW ON TAP TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. A MOISTURE-STARVED WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN
IN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC CURVED ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN AS WELL ALONG WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE
WARMING COULD LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS AS WELL ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE WEAK PASSING TROUGH. OTHERWISE A WARMER DAY CLOSE TO
NORMAL IS ON THE WAY. SHOULD ELEVATE TO VERY NICE BY MOST STANDARDS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW TRENDING
MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS UPPER RIDGE BULGES JUST TO OUR WEST. MINIMAL
SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR A SEASONAL COOL NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS
BEGINNING POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS
TO ADDRESS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
FIRST...DURING THE DAY TOMORROW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND WILL INTERACT WITH SOME MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT DOES. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WOULDNT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOL BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING ON THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS NEXT EVENT IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE TENUOUS HANDLE THAT MODELS HAVE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN.  HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE LATCHING ONTO THE IDEA
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPLIT AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT DIVIDE
LATE THIS WEEKEND...SENDING A PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND DIGGING A CLOSED LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTH WEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY EJECTING THIS LOW
EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE ALL
SEEMS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OF SOME
VARIETY WILL BECOME DRAWN INTO THE WIND FIELD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...BRINGING VERY UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE INTO TEXAS BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.  TO TOP IT ALL OFF...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHERE IT
INTERACTS WITH THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
QPF TOTALS.  AT THIS POINT...WHILE MODELS HAVE VERY MUCH STRUGGLED
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS...RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOLIDLY INTO CHC PROBABILITIES FOR THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  FARTHER WEST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT OPTED TO BRING SCHC POPS WESTWARD
DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE SLOWER AND MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW IN LATEST GUIDANCE.  BY LATE TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FORCED SOUTHWARDS BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...BUT AT 7 DAYS OUT WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT LITTLE CAN BE
SAID OTHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  69  38  61  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  70  41  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  70  43  62  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  71  44  64  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  72  45  64  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   47  77  49  65  42 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    47  76  48  64  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  76  46  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          47  75  47  65  41 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  81  48  67  41 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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