Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 152125
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
325 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Compact upper low early this afternoon continued to churn slowly
east to near the Davis Mountains. Leading edge of strong height
falls and colder temps aloft was bisecting our CWA from N-S at 3 PM
complete with a respectable line of elevated thunderstorms for
January standards. Unfortunately, rain rates with this convection
have been very lackluster and with no uptick foreseen, heavy rain
mention was removed from the forecast today. A decent stratiform
wake region of rainfall has actually yielded better precip rates
than the leading edge of storms, with forcing for this aided by
strong upper diffluence centered squarely over the western South
Plains. However, progressive mid-level dry slotting will erode
this deeper saturation with relative ease, but this has yet to
occur in Friona where light sleet was recently observed.

As convection exits the Rolling Plains this evening, attention will
shift to the upper low tracking northeast from near Lubbock to
Childress after midnight. Models show varying degrees of precip
redeveloping in this low`s deformation zone, but following mid-level
dry slotting there is a common model theme involving next to no
saturation in the dendritic growth zone aloft. Although low clouds
should remain largely undisturbed through the night, the critical
snow growth layer is progged to remain dry on model soundings in our
N-NW zones. This would yield mostly rain and/or drizzle, but we will
allow some latitude for very light snow accumulations in our far
southwest Panhandle counties should dry slotting be less effective
than models indicate.

Low clouds and perhaps some stubborn fog overnight will finally
scour out by mid-late morning on MLK Day with high temps returning
to climo territory. In the wake of tonight`s upper low, additional
PVA will be directed across the Desert SW and establish an
elongated trough axis. Deep moisture voids should preclude much in
the way of any sensible weather with this saggy trough, but Gulf
moisture could return far enough north for some light rain in our
SE zones by Tue night. Otherwise, milder highs through mid-week
with breezier SW winds will be the overwhelming story.

By late week, models favor a pair of moist Pacific troughs to
translate through the Desert SW with some implications for precip
and cooler weather. The first of these waves still looks to pass
to our north o/a Friday with robust SW winds at the surface,
before better moistening of the column ensues for the second
trough sometime during the weekend.

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

93



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