000
FXUS64 KLUB 190712
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
212 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridging continues to exert its influence over the region
with drier air advecting in from the east aloft and early morning
convection now shunted to the western half of New Mexico. This will
be the theme through the remainder of the week as the ridge remains
the dominate player over West Texas. Temperatures may edge up a few
degrees more over the coming days while any convection remains
confined to the higher terrain well to our west and the deeper
moisture and sea breeze circulation much closer to the Gulf Coast.
The ridge is still forecast to gradually weaken as it translates
eastward late week. The shifting/weakening ridge coupled with a
closed low traversing southern Canada toward the Great Lakes (by
late weekend) will allow the monsoonal plume to shift back
eastward toward or over the CWA this weekend into early next week.
We could see storm chances return to spots near the TX/NM line as
early as Saturday afternoon, though the better chances will
likely hold off until Sunday and Monday. By late Sunday or Monday
we may see a frontal zone associated with the Great Lakes system
edge into the region, though whether or not it can make it into
the FA or stall too our north remains unclear and will likely
depend on how much aid it receives from convective outflows. If
the front can make it into the area it will serve as another
focus for thunderstorm development in addition to providing modest
cooling. We have maintained slight chance to chance PoPs for most
of the South Plains area Sunday and Monday, favoring the northern
zones with the highest chances. The upper ridge may then attempt
to rebuild closer to home toward the middle of next week. If this
comes to fruition it would mean a return to dry and hotter
conditions.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

23/14