000
FXUS64 KLUB 232339
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
639 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings are likely to envelop LBB and PVW overnight as large
scale lift spreads numerous SHRA and TS towards the terminals.
Some TS could reach LBB and PVW before midnight, but better bet
remains after 05Z or so. Low ceilings show few signs of budging
on Sunday with on/off rounds of SHRA throughout the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Very little change in forecast as run to run NWP has remained
consistent with overall coverage of significant rainfall beginning
overnight tonight as showers and thunderstorms move out of eastern
New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Extended
periods of showers and storms with occasional breaks in activity
will extend through Tuesday. Showers ill be heavy at times, with a
Flash Flood Watch out for our western counties near Texas/New
Mexico beginning this evening through tomorrow morning.

Slight differences in timing of cold front remain on Monday with
NAM and ECMWF continuing to be slightly ahead of the GFS, but
otherwise we expect one to three inches of wide spread rainfall
across the region with some areas locally receiving five inches or
more between late tonight and Tuesday. Furthermore, as we begin
looking toward the middle and end of next week, GFS and ECMWF both
indicate the cold front stalling somewhere in the vicinity of the
southern South Plains to the I10 corridor. With ample moisture
remaining in place across the region and a secondary trough on the
heels of the current upper level low remaining to our west for the
end of next week into next weekend. WPC seven day QPF continues to
color up to 4-6 inches across our northwest counties and up to 9
inches as you move southeast into the southern Rolling Plains. Obviously
with all the rainfall in the forecast temperatures will be
dropping from now through the end of the week. Still looking at
highs in the 70s to near 80 for most locations tomorrow but we
will quickly see highs drop to the upper 60s and low 70s by
midweek and extend into the weekend as well.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ021-022-027-028-
033-034-039-040.

&&

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