Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 091057
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
557 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. SOME REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS
FROM DECAYED STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE FA THIS AM AND WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO OUR WEST WHICH
MAY HELP DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST NM AND
THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG A SURFACE THERMAL TROF/STATIONARY FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FA AS WE WILL
STAY FAIRLY CAPPED. A SLIM CHANCE EXISTS THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO OUR NORTHERN ROW OF ZONES LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BUT
NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO WARRANT POP MENTION ATM. TEMPS WILL STAY
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE TODAY AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY IN SOME PLACES WITH THE HELP OF SOME SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER AND WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHT THICKNESSES ON THE ORDER OF A
DECAMETER OR TWO. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING...IS
STILL PROGGED TO EXPAND EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MORE LESS BE CENTERED NEAR THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS SUCH...PROSPECTS FOR STORMS APPEAR FLEETING...THOUGH
STORMS ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO COULD NEAR THE NWRN ZONES EACH EVENING
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LIKELY MITIGATE STORMS FROM
IMPINGING ON THE REGION. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS DO NOT APPEAR
TO ARISE UNTIL NEXT WEEK /TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY/...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UA RIDGE WILL
BE QUITE IMPORTANT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIFTS THE UA RIDGE A
BIT SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND THUS THE UA RIDGE /SUBSIDENCE/ MAY
NOT PLAY AS MUCH OF A ROLE GIVEN PRECIP IS EXHIBITED ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS IS DAYS 6 AND 7 WE ARE REFERRING TO AND FOR ALL THAT
WE KNOW...THE UA RIDGE MAY REMAIN MORE OR LESS CENTERED NEAR THE
FA THEREBY CAUSING STORMS TO STRUGGLE DEVELOPING DESPITE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO INHERITED BELOW
MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY SRLY WINDS TOMORROW-SATURDAY /15-20 MPH/...WITH
A RELAXING GRADIENT ANTICIPATED BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMALS
/UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO UPPER 90S/ UNTIL LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UA RIDGE WILL CAUSE A DECLINE IN
MOISTURE AND HENCE WARMER TEMPS /MIDDLE 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS/. THEREAFTER...A SLIGHT COOL DOWN COULD OCCUR /80S AND
90/ IF LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE INDEED CORRECT WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  64  91  63  90 /  10  10   0  10   0
TULIA         91  67  91  65  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     91  67  91  65  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     92  66  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       93  68  92  67  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   91  65  91  64  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    92  66  91  66  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     97  74  97  71  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          94  69  95  68  94 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  72  97 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51





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