000
FXUS64 KLUB 210444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ANY -TSRA THAT DEVELOP IN VICNITY OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE LATE
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST-NW OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE PROPAGATION
TO THE EAST. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BRIEFLY
ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THEY HAVE HAD
LITTLE SUCCESS IN SUSTAINING THEMSELVES. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...COUPLED WITH A LACK OF LARGER
SCALE FORCING...FAVOR LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE REMOVED THE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THE REMAINED OF TONIGHT. THE DEWPOINT AND
WIND GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SEEM TO AGREE WITH BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO 595 DM TONIGHT
WITH AXIS FROM SRN NM INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE.
WARM AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SQUASH ALL BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THINK
EVEN THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED BUT MAY DEVELOP ALONG DECENT
INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN NM INTO THE WRN PANHANDLE...WHERE SPC
MESOANALYSIS IS INDICATING 3000+ J/KG CAPE AT 3 PM. VERY WEAK WIND
SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZATION AND MOVEMENT OF ANY UPDRAFTS THAT
CAN BREAK THROUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON BOTH KAMA AND KMAF
SOUNDINGS AROUND 10K FEET. SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY AGAIN FEED A FEW
CELLS WITH 30 KNOTS INFLOW...BUT THE GENERAL TREND THIS EVENING IS
FOR FEWER STORMS AND QUICKER DEMISE IN INCREASINGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. LOW CLOUDS EVEN LESS LIKELY TONIGHT. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...POPS ALTHOUGH NON ZERO...WILL DROP BELOW MENTION EVEN
OUT WEST. LOWS SEASONABLY MILD IN THE 66-74 RANGE. HIGHS CREEP UP
EVER SO SLIGHTLY MONDAY...FROM 95 SRN PANHANDLE TO 102 ACROSS THE
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR THE LONG TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A /COLD/
FRONT WILL PUSH TO AT LEAST THE EDGE OF THE FA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL HELP SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
NM. SOME CONVECTION MAY SPILL OVER INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES...HOWEVER THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE UNCERTAINTY DO NOT
WARRANT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE TRACK RECORD OF THE
FORECASTED FRONT. OF INTEREST LATER IN THE WEEK IS A LOW OVER WA
STATE THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE CA/US BORDER AND
WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS RESIDED OVER US TO THE WEST
PLACING US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BRING DOWN A
FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP COOL US OFF AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS NEAR...AT...OR ABOVE 100 AS WELL AS GIVE US A SHOT AT
CONVECTION. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND BETWEEN RUNS HAS BEEN
FAIRLY DECENT GIVEN THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME
THIS IS JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL BE KEPT IN MIND FOR
THE FUTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  96  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  69  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     70  97  70  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  98  72  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   71  97  70  96  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    71  98  71  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  99  73 102  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
SPUR          72  98  71  99  71 /   0  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     74 102  74 101  74 /   0  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/99/99