179
FXUS64 KLUB 100518
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

 - Dry weather is expected through most of today before showers
   and storms move onto the Caprock this evening.

 - Daily chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
   Friday through early next week, heavy rainfall may lead to
   flooding.

 - Hot to end the week with cooler conditions expected this
   weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A generally drier airmass is in place over the region compared to
this time yesterday as a result of a slight eastward expansion of
the upper ridge axis centered over the desert southwest. This
evolution comes as a mid/upper level shortwave trough moved over
NorCal this morning, with this shortwave set to continue moving
fairly quickly eastward over NV/UT/CO over the next 24 hours. The
relatively dry airmass currently overhead will consequently remain
in place as upper ridging remains fairly flat, and diurnal
thunderstorms look quite unlikely today as a result. Temperatures
will again be on the warm side with highs in the mid to upper 90s,
and southwest winds are also set to become a bit breezy this
afternoon in response to the deepening of a broad surface trough
over eastern CO/NM ahead of the aforementioned upper shortwave.

By early evening as the upper shortwave continues to advance
eastward, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to
develop over SE CO and NE NM within the above mentioned surface
trough, and then track southeastward through the evening hours. Most
models are in good agreement that this activity should reach the SW
TX Panhandle by about 6-8 PM, with less agreement on how much
farther south and east it progresses after that. Currently it
appears that the environment will quickly become unfavorable for
continued convective maintenance after the loss of daytime heating,
so we expect this shower and storm activity to fade in coverage
after sunset with mentionable PoPs focused mainly to the west of I-
27. Widespread severe weather looks unlikely, but a few gusts to 60
mph will be possible during the evening given the high-based nature
of the storms. There is also a nonzero chance of some nocturnal
storm development later tonight as the outflow from the evening
activity drifts eastward, but this currently looks like it will
remain quite isolated if it does indeed develop. Otherwise, another
mild overnight is expected with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The extended forecast remains on track this evening, with ensemble
guidance continuing to hint at our next best chance for beneficial
rainfall this weekend, as the upper level high over the Desert
Southwest flattens while departing to the west and an upper level
shortwave trough digs through the Central Plains. As a result
northerly flow aloft will make a subtle shift out of the northwest
through the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, drier southwest winds
are expected to back out of the southeast as a surface low develops
across eastern New Mexico and the surface high remains parked off to
the east of the FA. As we see the return of moisture transport with
these winds, hot and muggy conditions will likely return on Friday
with dewpoints in the 60s, while thickness values, mostly clear
skies, and the southerly component to the wind, aiding in
temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s. There remains a
chance for diurnally driven convection, with the best shot looking
to be for the far southwestern and central Texas Panhandle, along
with portions of the northern South Plains, as thunderstorms likely
develop across the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico and tracks
into the area. However, models are not too in support of
thunderstorms making it into our area given weak steering flow
aloft. If thunderstorms make it into our area, there is a chance
that some become sub-severe to severe, with forecast soundings
depicting a well mixed boundary layer profile, low-level lapse rates
around 8C/km, and DCAPE values up to 1700 J/kg, all suggesting
strong wind gusts to 60 mph cannot be ruled out. Heading into the
weekend, chances for precipitation increase while we see cooler
temperatures across much of the region as a series of shortwave
troughs dive through portions of the Central and Southern Plains. As
a result of the upper level pattern, a plume of monsoonal moisture
looks to clip portions of the region, with a notable axis of
subtropical moisture from 300mb to 700mb. Given this increased
amount of moisture from the surface to mid-levels, along with
perturbations associated with the shortwave troughs moving into
the region, we can expect daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms for much of the forecast area Saturday through early
next week. Saturday evening looks to be the best chance for
precipitation, with likely (>50%) PoPs in place for areas across
the Caprock, as we see the best forcing with the base of the
trough just north of the area. Forecast soundings across the
region during this time frame depict long-skinny CAPE profiles
with a well saturated column of moisture through the surface to
mid-levels. Additionally, PWATs are progged to be well above the
90th percentile seasonal normals (1.30") with soundings suggesting
PWATs ranging from 1.25" up to 1.75" across much of the area.
This leads to a cause of concern for heavy rainfall and localized
flooding, especially with any stronger storm core that develops
given the potential for slow storm motions.

Heights will decrease as the upper level ridge departs west which in
combination with the increased amounts of moisture, cloud cover
anticipation, and southeasterly winds will result in slightly cooler
temperatures this weekend into early next week with highs ranging in
the 80s and 90s. Daily chances for precipitation will continue each
afternoon from Monday through mid-week week as perturbations continue
to track through the region, despite the upper level ridge expanding
slightly westward. Since this remains Day 6 and beyond, will opt to
maintain NBM mentionable PoPs due to the forecast uncertainty with
it being so far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Continued VFR with light winds. A window may open after sunset for
TS near PVW, but low confidence precludes mention at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93