Area Forecast Discussion
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565
FXUS64 KLUB 051008
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
408 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE NEAR OUR LATITUDE WAS ALREADY PROVIDING A BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AT 08Z. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY CURRENT DIVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ACTS TO SHARPEN A
MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. PROLONGED AND RELATIVELY DEEP LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...BUT IT WILL BE WORKING
ON A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE /REFLECTED BY EARLY MORNING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
EFFECTIVELY KEEP POPS NIL IN SPITE OF THE FAVORABLE FORCING.
INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY 15Z...ADVANCING ACROSS
MOST OF THE CAPROCK BY 21Z...THEN THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS BY 00Z.
GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFFECT THE ROLLING PLAINS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AS DEEP
SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE SOUTH PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE.

THE DAYTIME FROPA WILL RESULT IN A DECENT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WHILE
BACKING TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT COOLING THOUGH THE DOWNSLOPE BREEZES COULD MITIGATE THIS
SOMEWHAT. STILL IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS
NORTHWEST TO 20S OFF THE CAPROCK.

.LONG TERM...

OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DISPARITY DOES ABOUND WITH REGARD TO
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM BEING MUCH MUCH COOLER...LOW TO MID
50S...WHILE GFS IS IN LOW 60S AND ECMWF EVEN WARMER INTO MID 60S.
TIMING SIMILARITIES OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH WEST TEXAS
EARLY SUNDAY EXPLAINS WHY ECMWF IS WARMER AS IT PUSHES THE BULK OF
THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPROX 6 HRS SLOWER THAN GFS/NAM
WHILE ALSO BEING WEAKER IN MAGNITUDE...SUPERBLEND VALUES WERE
CLOSEST TO THE GFS SOLUTION BUT LIKELY STILL TOO WARM...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAN MORE TOWARD GFS WITH SLIGHT DEFERENCE TO THE NAM AND
CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR HIGHS FOR
MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM UP BEGINS IN EARNEST ON TUESDAY...LEVELING
OFF INTO THE LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BY MIDWEEK THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEGINS TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP AND
SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE WESTERLIES THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. NO REAL SIGNAL FOR
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WX
CONCERNS LATE IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WOULD APPEAR
TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS /SUSTAINED AT
20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS DO RAISE SOME CONCERN GIVEN THE
RECENT UPTICK IN FIRE ACTIVITY...BUT RH VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT
COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WILL TEND TO
MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES DIPPING TO 20 PERCENT OR LOWER
COULD ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE WARMEST AND DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR
WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT
THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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