000
FXUS64 KLUB 140938
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AT 3 AM...AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS FOUND PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KS
AND EASTERN CO. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL IN THE SRN PANHANDLE BY
EARLY AFTN IN RESPONSE TO A COMPACT UPPER LOW INCHING EAST FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND VEER WINDS FROM SWLY TO NORTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING...TO EASTERLY BY PEAK HEATING. IN SPITE OF THESE NORMALLY
COOLER EAST WINDS...EVEN MILDER HIGHS ARE ON TAP AS 800MB TEMPS
UNDERGO 2-4C OF WARMING OVER YESTERDAY.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTENING WILL RATCHET UP
IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYERS
HOWEVER DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY PROMISING FOR PRECIP AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS FAVOR ONION-LIKE PROFILES BEFORE 12Z. SUCH SETUPS RESULT
IN MORE VIRGA AND SPRINKLES THAN MEASURABLE PRECIP...BUT GIVEN THE
RESPECTABLE APPEARANCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND AGREEMENT AMONG MULTIPLE
HIGH RES MODELS...WE WON/T YET SHUT THE DOOR ON SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SPOTTY AND LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL MAKE FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND...WITH QUITE AN ASSORTMENT OF
WEATHER TYPES TO DEAL WITH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.  THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN...WHICH WILL
FEATURE A RAPID SUCCESSION OF UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE
AREA...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LBB SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS TROUGH...AS THE NAM
CONTINUES TO PRESENT A SLOWER SOLUTION THAT WOULD BRING MUCH OF THE
BEST UPPER FORCING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON... AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND ECMWF
WHICH ARE ABOUT 3 HOURS FASTER. IN ANY CASE...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THIS COMPACT WAVE WILL GENERATE A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF
LIFT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL...MODEST AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THINGS REALLY
TAKE OFF FARTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED LOW END MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST AS AN INCREASINGLY
STRONG COLD FRONT RACES SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THIS IMPRESSIVE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND UPPER SHORTWAVE
THAT RAPIDLY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.  AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST LOW
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY PRIOR TO FROPA WHEN COMBINED WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...AND IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL
REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY APPROXIMATELY 00Z AND
WHIP THROUGH THE AREA IN A MATTER OF ONLY A FEW HOURS. DURING THIS
RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW... NEARLY SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE.

ANOTHER CONCERN...AND LIKELY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIAL AND RELATIVELY PROLONGED MODERATELY HIGH
WIND EVENT FOLLOWING THE FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT IN GENERATING SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
16MB/HR...WHICH WOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE 25-35
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...ALONG WITH
THE REQUISITE BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
MID-LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...PERHAPS STRENGTHENED BY YET ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...SURFACE WINDS WOULD LIKELY RAMP UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AFTER A BRIEF LULL...AS DEEP MIXING ALLOWS THESE MID-LEVEL WINDS
TO REACH THE SURFACE.

BEYOND SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND FOR THE BETTER AS A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S AFTER A COOL SUNDAY IN THE 50S.  THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER BREEZY
COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING.  FORTUNATELY THE
EFFECTS OF THIS FRONT ARE LIKELY TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS BROAD...FLAT
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND MAKE FOR A
PLEASANT AND UNEVENTFUL SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  35  67  31  54 /   0  10  20  40  10
TULIA         68  38  70  35  54 /   0  20  20  50  10
PLAINVIEW     70  39  69  37  55 /   0  20  20  50  10
LEVELLAND     72  40  70  37  58 /   0  20  10  40  10
LUBBOCK       73  41  70  39  57 /   0  20  10  40  10
DENVER CITY   73  42  70  38  61 /   0  20  10  30  10
BROWNFIELD    74  42  71  40  60 /   0  20  10  30  10
CHILDRESS     74  43  69  42  57 /   0  20  30  50  10
SPUR          76  43  73  43  58 /   0  20  20  40  10
ASPERMONT     80  46  73  45  60 /   0  10  20  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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