Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151745
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1245 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Thanks to our round of morning convection saturating the ground,
as well as lingering cloud cover across the southeast, brought
high temperatures down for this afternoon by several degrees. Also
made an adjustment to winds, as they have increased across much
of the forecast area out of the south/southeast to 10-20 KT with
higher gusts. Models are not handling this change well, though, an
increase in cloud cover this afternoon should keep winds from
increasing too much.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1210 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

AVIATION...
After morning convection, TAF sites have returned to VFR
conditions, which is where they will stay through the afternoon.
Short term models are indicating a chance of thunderstorms
affecting LBB and PVW around or after 0Z, though coverage and
timing is still too uncertain to include TAF mention attm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Convective activity proved to be more resilient than expected
early this morning with scattered thunderstorms ongoing and
redevelopment westward into eastern New Mexico.

For this afternoon, more widespread activity is anticipated as a
short wave currently seen in water vapor imagery over northern
Mexico will move overhead. This short wave will be associated with
a jet streak coming out of New Mexico as upper level atmospheric
flow begins to back. This backing is in response to a long wave
trough moving into the western CONUS. Storms this afternoon are
expected to initially form in eastern New Mexico and earlier in
the day than seen in the past few days. The initial storms will
form in eastern New Mexico closer to a surface trough. However,
some development could form in West Texas with residual surface
boundaries from early morning convection. Strong low level moisture
still in place will lead to mixed layer instability values on the
order of 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear will be fairly unchanged
with fairly weak flow. Therefore, little organization is expected
but very strong instability will lead to possible severe storms.
Furthermore, extremely high precipitable water values will lead to
heavy rain and possible localized flooding.

Precipitation chances from Wednesday and beyond remain unclear.
Precipitation chances on Wednesday do look better than before with
a cold front sliding somewhere into the region. Although it is
uncertain where this front will end up, convection chances do look
promising along and ahead of the front, which will most likely be
over the Rolling Plains. The upper level ridge over the
southeastern US will be the source of uncertainty in convection
chances for the rest of the week. This ridge will begin to move
west resulting in rising heights which will act to suppress
convective development. But given the strong low level moisture
and instability in place, isolated to widely scattered storms will
be possible just about any afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

74/99


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