Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 302326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
EVENING HOURS MOST LIKELY AFFECTING KPVW IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM.
NONE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT
EITHER KLBB OR KCDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CU FIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE HAS BEGUN YIELDING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS...SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FARTHER EAST INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. WITH ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE INDICATED BY
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 60F/70F ALONG WITH DEEP MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME APPARENT ON WV HAVE ONLY NECESSITATED MEAGER LIFT
FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH MORNING
CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
INTERACTING WITH ONE ANOTHER.

CENTER OF RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO MIGRATE WEST AND SLIGHTLY NORTH
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALBEIT ANEMIC AT BEST.
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG OUR NORTHERN TIER TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. BEST
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AS
IT SLOWLY GETS PULLED SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND THE ROLLING PLAINS. CONTINUED UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWESTWARD WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS NEAR
60F OR HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS. OVERALL BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL
BE NORTH OF OUR AREA UP INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
ITERATION. THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED TO
OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW THE BETTER
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER SOME OR MOST
OF THE CWA. THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH A RESIDUAL CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION...WILL SUPPORT DECENT
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IS
ALWAYS THE CASE...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. THE LATEST NWP TEND
TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
FOR THE BEST RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND FOCUS SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO CARRY SOLID
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FA THIS WEEKEND. ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS GIVEN
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS...AND WE HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

RAIN CHANCES BECOME A BIT LESS CLEAR INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY OR MAY NOT BUILD BACK EASTWARD. EVEN IF IT DOES...IT
APPEARS MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE AND COULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM CHANCES. ATTM...WE HAVE ACCEPTED
THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE AN OCCASIONAL MINIMAL THUNDER
MENTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE INCREASED CLOUDS /AND POSSIBLE RAIN/ WILL TEND TO TEMPER
TEMPERATURES...WITH ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES LIKELY STAYING AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  86  65  87 /  40  30  40  30
TULIA         68  87  66  86 /  30  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     68  88  67  87 /  30  30  30  40
LEVELLAND     69  91  68  91 /  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       70  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   70  92  67  93 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    70  92  69  93 /  10  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     74  93  73  89 /  30  30  40  40
SPUR          73  94  71  94 /  20  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     76  98  74  96 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/


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