Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 141736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

VFR should persist outside of convection next 24 hours. A few
thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon though spatial and
temporal uncertainty precludes mention at this time. Indications
are that a storm complex may move out of eastern NM this evening.
Current trends suggest KPVW will be the first site to be impacted
around midnight local. Subsequent impacts to KLBB and KCDS are
possible after 05Z.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

Several more days of active convection can be expected for West
Texas although becomes more uncertain for the second half of the

Zonal flow aloft will continue for today. However, a ribbon of
higher jet level winds that was to the north of the region
yesterday evening will be directly overhead this afternoon and
evening. Convection is expected to be more isolated with less
organization for today than what was observed on Sunday evening.
Surface troughing in eastern New Mexico will deepen this afternoon
with a developing surface low pressure in southeastern Colorado.
An area of higher low level theta-e air will reside across the
area oriented from southwest to northeast ahead of this surface
trough. We would expect the initial convection to develop within
this surface trough and just to the east within the richer low
level theta-e air. Strong instability within this theta-e axis
will develop again and be on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg. This
will lead to strong updrafts but little organization of

Upper level winds will begin to back on Tuesday in advance of a
longwave trough entering the western CONUS. Models are showing an
additional short wave trough moving out of far West Texas on
Tuesday afternoon/evening which will boost convection chances and
may lead to better chances of severe convection. We will continue
to see strong instabilities. Strong instability coupled with the
short wave will increase chances of organized convection and will
likely be the best chances of convection for the week. This
initial long wave trough will move out into the midwest on
Wednesday with another weaker one in its wake dropping into the
Great Basin. An upper level ridge over the southeastern US will
migrate back west for the second half of this week. Convection
chances will be decreased as this occurs but enough moisture may
allow isolated convection to develop just about any afternoon or
evening for the second half of the week.




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