Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 302325
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN FULL SUPPRESSION MODE TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW FOR WEST TEXAS. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING CLOSER TO BEING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS
HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
STRETCHED EASTWARD TOMORROW BUT STILL TOO FAR WEST FOR US TO SEE ANY
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BUMP UP
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH THE MAIN
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO OUR EAST AND A TROF TO OUR WEST. THE TROF WILL
TAP INTO TROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE AND PROVIDE NM/AZ WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MOST PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FA...HOWEVER OUR WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A STRAY STORM OR TWO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER AS THE TROF STARTS PUSHING EASTWARD HELPING KICK THE RIDGE
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD MAKE NM SHARE SOME OF THE RAIN IT
WILL BE GETTING. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT. BEYOND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST PERIODS...THE MOVING TROF WILL ALSO PUT IN MOTION A COLD
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE WEST TEXAS REGION BY NEXT
MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BECOME LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT WHILE THE GFS STAYS HIGHLY MOTIVATED IN HAVING A STRONG
FRONT. IF THE FRONT HAPPENS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IT COULD
PRODUCE A GOOD BIT OF NEEDED RAIN AND WITH IT WOULD COME A STRONG
TASTE OF FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  92  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         61  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     60  92  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     59  91  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  93  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  91  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    60  92  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     66  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          65  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     67  98  71  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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