Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 051722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 18-20 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AT KLBB AND KPVW...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A BREEZY COLD
FRONT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KCDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS THAT IS WHEN THE COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY ARRIVE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECLINE
AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WITH WINDS STAYING UP UNTIL
AROUND 06/07Z AT KCDS /WINDS WILL DECLINE AROUND 06/03Z AT KLBB
AND KPVW/. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN VFR DECKS WILL GIVE WAY TO SKC BY
TONIGHT.

&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE NEAR OUR LATITUDE WAS ALREADY PROVIDING A BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AT 08Z. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY CURRENT DIVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ACTS TO SHARPEN A
MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. PROLONGED AND RELATIVELY DEEP LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...BUT IT WILL BE WORKING
ON A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE /REFLECTED BY EARLY MORNING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS/. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
EFFECTIVELY KEEP POPS NIL IN SPITE OF THE FAVORABLE FORCING.
INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY 15Z...ADVANCING ACROSS
MOST OF THE CAPROCK BY 21Z...THEN THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS BY 00Z.
GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFFECT THE ROLLING PLAINS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AS DEEP
SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE SOUTH PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE.

THE DAYTIME FROPA WILL RESULT IN A DECENT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WHILE
BACKING TO THE WEST. THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT COOLING THOUGH THE DOWNSLOPE BREEZES COULD MITIGATE THIS
SOMEWHAT. STILL IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS
NORTHWEST TO 20S OFF THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DISPARITY DOES ABOUND WITH
REGARD TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM BEING MUCH MUCH
COOLER...LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE GFS IS IN LOW 60S AND ECMWF EVEN
WARMER INTO MID 60S. TIMING SIMILARITIES OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES THROUGH WEST TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY EXPLAINS WHY ECMWF IS
WARMER AS IT PUSHES THE BULK OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
APPROX 6 HRS SLOWER THAN GFS/NAM WHILE ALSO BEING WEAKER IN
MAGNITUDE...SUPERBLEND VALUES WERE CLOSEST TO THE GFS SOLUTION BUT
LIKELY STILL TOO WARM...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD GFS WITH
SLIGHT DEFERENCE TO THE NAM AND CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING TROUGH TO THE
EAST WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR HIGHS FOR MONDAY BEFORE THE WARM UP
BEGINS IN EARNEST ON TUESDAY...LEVELING OFF INTO THE LOW 70S BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BY MIDWEEK THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEGINS TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP AND
SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE WESTERLIES THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. NO REAL SIGNAL FOR
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WX
CONCERNS LATE IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WOULD APPEAR
TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION TODAY
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS /SUSTAINED
AT 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS DO RAISE SOME CONCERN
GIVEN THE RECENT UPTICK IN FIRE ACTIVITY...BUT RH VALUES ABOVE 15
PERCENT COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES DIPPING TO 20
PERCENT OR LOWER COULD ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE WARMEST AND DRIEST CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR WHEN THE WINDS ARE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM
WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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