821
FXUS64 KLUB 072324
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
624 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

 - Thunderstorm chances continue tonight into early Tuesday.

 - Storm chances return for Tuesday evening, with drier and warmer
   weather expected Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Isolated storms may return Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

This morning`s MCS has all but dissipated completely as of late
morning. Outflow from it has brought slightly drier air into the
forecast area, but with post-outflow north winds already veering
around to east to southeast low level moist advection will
recommence this afternoon. The favored area of afternoon convective
initiation remains northeastern New Mexico. Northwest flow aloft and
very moist southeasterly low level flow point to a good chance of
thunderstorms making at least into the northwestern third of the
forecast area this evening. A secondary area of potential convective
initiation is well to the north across swrn Kansas/nwrn Oklahoma
with the potential of another early morning MCS across the northern
zones. Confidence is lower in the latter scenario, and NBM is
basically dry 06Z-18Z. Will leave that for now, but that is
something that will have to be watched this evening to early morning
with precip chances possibly needing to be extended southward
overnight and early Tuesday. Finally, Tuesday afternoon could bring
a better chance for convective initiation inside the forecast area,
mainly across the northwestern third. This is partly pending
convective evolution tonight and resultant boundaries and quality of
air mass, but potential for both upslope flow and reaching
convective temperatures point to NBM slight chance being justified.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday evening. Had to
increase POPS above NBM. Later this week, upper atmospheric
temperatures continue to warm and guidance suggests thunderstorm
chances will decrease especially Wednesday through Friday.
Afternoon highs should push to the mid and upper 90s with By this
weekend, the subtropical upper high over the southwest US will
drift further west possibly bringing northwesterly flow aloft and
an increased chance of thunderstorms in the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR and light winds are expected to prevail through this TAF
period. Some very isolated TS will persist through the rest of the
evening but are expected to remain clear of the terminals. A
separate complex of TS may then approach the region after 05z, but
probability of terminal impacts is too low for TAF mention at this
time. Still, potential is there for strong and erratic winds
should convection indeed impact the terminals late tonight.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30