Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 232157
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
JUST TO OUR EAST THENCE INTO MEXICO.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP
KNOCK THINGS BACK UNDER 20 KTS.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND HELP ESTABLISH A
WARMING TREND ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR THE 50
DEGREE MARK.  TURNING BACK TO PRECIPITATION...WE MAY SEE SOME VIRGA
OR PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES AND THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE WINDY SIDE...THOUGH NOT AS
BAD AS TODAY. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SE CO/SW KS DURING THE
DAY AS 40-50 KT H7 SW FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH SCENARIOS
SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
ON THE MILD SIDE WITH H8 THERMAL TROUGH APPROACHING 12-14C AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE ROCKIES.

HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN IN ERNEST DURING THE DAY ALSO AS A STORM SYSTEM
DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEEPENS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA HELPING TO
KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME ENERGY ON THE
TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN SATURATE DEEP ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
AT THE SURFACE. MED RANGE MODELS AND THE LATEST NAM AGREE ON SOME
PRECIP EMERGING AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS A CDFNT
BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM A
GOOD CHANCE OF BEING FROZEN BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. THE MAJORITY
OF THE LIFT APPEARS TO PLAY OUT FROM NW-SE DURING THE DAY SAT SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO MEET THIS TREND. SURFACE RIDGING
QUICKLY PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL HELP SALVAGE AT LEAST ONE
DAY OF THE WEEKEND FOR A BIT OF A WARMING TREND BEFORE THE BOTTOM
FALLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO ERN ALASKA BY MON. PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATES A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS
BEEN STORED FOR MUCH OF THIS MONTH WILL BE UNLEASHED FOR ITS RIDE
DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. TIMING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY AT THE MOMENT LOOKS TO BE ON
MON WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO
TUE. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        18  46  24  63  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         22  48  27  63  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  48  28  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     24  47  27  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  47  29  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   24  48  28  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    25  48  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     31  50  31  67  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  50  30  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     30  51  31  66  41 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>038.

&&

$$

26/24




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