000
FXUS64 KLUB 242328
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
628 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Model solutions continue to struggle in all aspects of the
forecast. Warm air aloft has thus far inhibited thunderstorm
development thought storm risks will increase overnight. Ceilings
should largely remain MVFR or better much of the evening with
increasing chances for IFR toward sunrise.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Convective chances for the next several days remain unclear with
the latest model runs.

Models look to be overzealous in their QPF depictions for tonight
given the post frontal air mass in place across a wide region.
However, some activity is possible tonight and some models are
developing convection on a very weak short wave moving through the
northwest flow aloft along with a little increase in jet level
winds. Moist upglide will continue to bring elevated instability
into the region on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. Surface instability
will be low in far eastern New Mexico limiting our traditional
northwest flow storms. Daytime on Sunday looks to be another
relatively quiet day with potential convective activity overnight.
There are perhaps a few subtle short waves moving through the
northwest flow again which may bring better chances on Sunday
evening into early Monday morning. There will be better surface
based instability with less low stratus expected especially in
eastern New Mexico.

Convection on Monday and Tuesday evening remain even more
questionable as the upper level ridge axis moves closer to the
area. However, the ridge will overall be weakening and de-
amplifying as an upper level low dives into British Columbia.
This ridge to the south will eventually begin to try to build back
into the area by mid to late week raising temperatures back to
values above seasonal averages.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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