Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 042034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LATE THIS AFTN THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAD SHIFTED INTO
NW NM WHERE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR/TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED
SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN A DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE AXIS.
ISOLD STORMS WERE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS W CENTRAL OK WHICH REMAINED
UNDER INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF MODERATE JET
STREAKS EMBEDDED WITHIN. IN BETWEEN HEIGHTS WERE ON A SLOW RISE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS A BROAD CU FIELD CONTINUED TO EXPAND NORTH
WITHIN A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
DEAMPLIFY THROUGH SUN AS A STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES. LOCALLY THICKNESS VALUES WILL GAIN A DECAMETER
OR SO WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD GIVE A SLIGHT BUMP TO TEMPS ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WARMING WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MEANWHILE SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING BENEATH THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL KEEP DATIME PRECIP CHCS VERY LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN ON SUNDAY ACROSS ERN CO AND NE NM WHICH WILL ALSO ADD A FEW
KNOTS OF SPEED TO THE WIND.

.LONG TERM...
SOME INTERESTING CHANGES IN THE LONGER TERM WEATHER. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHERLY BL FLOW WILL PERSIST AS SURFACE
TROFFING DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ON MONDAY...MAIN FORCING
WITH UPPER WAVE WILL HEAD EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH APPROACHING FRONT.
DEVELOPING UPPER SUPPORT AND FRONT WILL ACT IN CONCERT TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
MORNING. NAM AND GFS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF FRONT WITH 12Z RUN. WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH...SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS FORCING
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GFS IS NOW EVEN AHEAD OF NAM WITH TIMING. A
LITTLE EARLY TO GET CUTE WITH TIMING THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS
JUNCTURE...BEST GUESS IS FOR FRONT TO CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS NOT TOO WEAK FOR EARLY
JULY...ALTHOUGH ONLY MINOR COOLING/BAROCLINICITY BEHIND IT...AND
THAT MAY BE DUE MOSTLY TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE 1/2 INCH OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN POST FRONTAL
ATMOSPHERE WELL INTO TUESDAY...AND GREATER AMOUNTS PROBABLE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER BACK TUE NIGHT. BLEND HIGHS FOR TUE
AFTERNOON ARE IN THE 70S FROM LUBBOCK N/NW AND THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER S/W MAY MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT LESS FORCING/INSTABILITY LIKELY TO RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLD/WDLY SCT COVERAGE AS SLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES. BACK INTO THE
90S BY FRIDAY MOST AREAS WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS. A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS FLOW...BUT 594 DM 500 MB
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS.
JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  67  89 /  10  10  10  40
TULIA         67  91  70  89 /  10   0  10  50
PLAINVIEW     67  89  70  89 /  10   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     67  91  71  91 /   0   0  10  40
LUBBOCK       68  91  71  91 /   0   0  10  30
DENVER CITY   66  91  70  92 /   0  10  10  30
BROWNFIELD    68  91  70  91 /   0   0  10  40
CHILDRESS     72  94  74  94 /  10   0  10  30
SPUR          70  90  71  92 /  10   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     73  94  74  95 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/06



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