Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLUB 271750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT LARGELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTN AT LBB AND CDS WITH SPOTTY SHRA
OR A BRIEF TSRA UNDER A DECAYING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...ODDS PRECIP
OR THUNDER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL ARE SLIM.

SETUP FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND SOME FOG LOOK BETTER NOW AT
LBB IN MOIST AND LIGHT SLY FLOW. PAST FEW MORNINGS HAVE HAD FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS FARTHER SW...BUT THESE NOW LOOK TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE BEFORE DAYBREAK SUN. SOME IFR CIGS/VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE...
BUT MVFR LEVELS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND OUT OF
INFLUENCE OF OUR AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES ARE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LARGELY BE VOID OF ANY LIFT ALONG WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY. NOTHING SPECTACULAR STANDS OUT IN THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AS WELL. WE WILL UNDERGO STRONG DRYING
AT MID LEVELS CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INVADING THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CLOSER TO BECOMING UNCAPPED
THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
TOPPING OUT AT VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. ALL OF THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SEE SOME DIURNAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST
CHANCES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH KICKING
AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
FACTOR INTO SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THUNDER CHANCES LATE MONDAY
DEPENDING ON IF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED OR NOT.
WE WILL PLAY MIDDLE-ROAD TIMING AND COVERAGE-WISE FOR NOW WITH
SOLID CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE MONDAY SPREADING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS PLAUSIBLE
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO WESTERN PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING
DRIVEN BY HEALTHY BULK SHEAR VALUES AND MODEST INSTABILITY.

UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SPIN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SO A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH EDGING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MAY TEND TO STALL OUT LATER
TUESDAY OVER OUR EAST OR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND PERHAPS REMAIN
THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A TAP
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM RACHEL SHOULD
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH MID-WEEK. INHERITED LOW
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WAS EXTENDED
ANOTHER 12 HOURS THURSDAY FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FLATTER UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING BY THURSDAY WITH MAIN IMPACT TO THE
NORTH AND SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER PACIFIC FRONT WITH
MODEST COOLING AND DRYING TO FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  56  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10  20
TULIA         78  57  79  57  81 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     75  58  78  59  81 /  20  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  59  79  61  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   75  58  79  59  82 /  20  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  58  79  59  82 /  20  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     84  62  85  64  86 /  20  10  10   0  10
SPUR          80  60  82  63  84 /  20  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     84  63  84  64  86 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.