Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 220539
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1239 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.AVIATION...
TS approaching KPVW from the west diminishing, but there is a
chance it will get close before dissipating completely. Have
inserted a VCTS there to handle in first hour of the forecast.

Second issue is potential for low clouds, likely near the IFR/MVFR
category interface, at both KLBB and KPVW. Timing of onset near
09Z still looks reasonable. Uncertainty then ensues with the
potential for ceilings to increase safely into MVFR critiera by
mid-morning.

Third issue is potential for TS through the entire 24 hour TAF
period. Think the next best chance for precip will come after 12Z
as activity over the Texas Panhandle and northeastern New Mexico
advects toward the three terminals. Redevelopment for late
afternoon to early evening looks likely to affect the terminals as
well. Have opted to hold off inserting any mention in the TAFs at
this time since main impact is after 12Z rather than a blanket
PROB30 mention. Will refine with the 12Z issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 805 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated the overnight forecast to delay the eastward progression
of convection across the FA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

AVIATION...
CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR and possible into the high end
IFR category at PVW and LBB after midnight. CIGs should begin to
lift at both terminals close to 15Z. CDS is expected to remain VFR
at this time. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
tomorrow afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front, however the
timing of these affecting terminals is unknown at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Large troughing in the eastern half of the CONUS with embedded short
waves will dominate the weather for the next few days.

For today, a north-south oriented low level theta-e axis was
establishing itself from southwest Texas through eastern New Mexico.
Continued southeasterly low level flow will encourage isolated storm
development to continue across this higher terrain region. Better
chances will exist later on this afternoon and evening closer to the
Raton mesa where stronger surface convergence exists. A subtropical
jet will strengthen as it moves out of northern Mexico tonight but
will provide little in the way of large scale lift locally. A moist
low level jet will develop this evening spurring eastward
development through the night mostly across the Texas Panhandle but
also drifting to the southeast. This low level jet will advect in
stronger low level moisture along with elevated instability thus
increasing prospects for continue thunder chances through the night.
We will also see low stratus advect in from the south on this moist
low level flow.

A short wave moving through the northwest flow out of the Rockies
will bring better chances of storms and severe storms on Monday
afternoon and evening. This shortwave will be coupled with the
subtropical jet just to the south of the region. Good moisture is
still doubtful for Monday. Current upstream dew points are only in
the 40s with some lower 50s in central Texas. Convection and a
stalled out front from the Big Bend to southeast Texas will hinder a
return to deep moisture. Nonetheless, there will still likely be
sufficient moisture for scattered thunderstorm development off the
New Mexico higher terrain when coupled with the available lift. The
low stratus will also cast a doubt on available instability during
the afternoon over the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Models are
showing low clouds persisting through most of the morning into at
least the early afternoon. Shear will be increasing with the
shortwave trough approaching and if enough instability is present,
storms will have the potential to become severe.

Following Monday`s thunderstorm potential, a cold front will plow
through the region on Tuesday morning bringing gusty northerly
winds, drier conditions, and cooler temperatures. Rain showers and
even some isolated thunder will be possible on Tuesday in the post
frontal airmass as a secondary short wave takes a similar track to
the initial one. Subsidence will then spread in on Tuesday night
ending these precipitation chances. The cool down will be short
lived with an upper level ridge to the west moving eastward over the
area bringing temperatures back up well above seasonal averages.
Surface lee troughing on Thursday will bring in very dry air and
temperatures in the upper 90s. Some model guidance even breaks 100
degrees in some locations.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07


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