Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 212334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Although VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours, there
is a chance of TSRA in the vicinity of the terminals from about 03
to 09 UTC. In addition, there is a possibility of strong gust
fronts producing strong and erratic winds well ahead of the
thunderstorm activity, and possibly some blowing dust as well.
KPVW has the highest potential of this occurring tonight and we`ve
added a mention to the TAF to that terminal, with chances lower
at KLBB and KCDS.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

High pressure remains our dominant feature across the SWRN USA.
Today, the center of the high is located across SERN AZ with
largely zonal flow across the northern half of the country. Across
SE TX, T.C. Cindy is expected to make landfall near the TX/LA
state line before being swept eastward. The mid level flow should
become more northerly through Friday before transitioning back to
a more northwesterly flow regime. A few minor ripples in the
embedded flow to our north should still drive a cold front into
the region on Friday. The upper high to our West will strengthen
early next week before the ridge to its north flattens on Tuesday
and squeezes the high into the eastern Pacific.

Thunderstorms have begun to fire across the higher terrain of
northeastern New Mexico. Given the pattern, these storms are
expected to work their way across the state line later this
evening and provide perhaps the NWRN 1/3 to 1/2 part of our area
with rainfall. Some of these storms could become strong to
possibly severe with the primary threats being winds to 60 mph and
hail to the size of golf balls. The activity should largely start
to weaken after midnight. Some risk of northwest flow storms is
possible again on Friday though the coverage appears to be less
expansive. The cold front should make it into our CWFA by sunrise
Friday morning providing for lower temps, particularly in the
northwestern zones. Storms will likely fire INVOF the frontal zone
though the positioning of the front remains nebulous.
Unfortunately, this results in a broadbrush of mild POPs though
confidence in somewhere getting storms is moderate to high.
Scattered storms are expected to continue into Saturday and Sunday
as the frontal boundary remains draped across the area. Naturally,
if the front pushes much further south, or remains to our north,
this will have a profound impact on the rain chances. However,
given the forecast disturbances to our north, there does not
appear to make things really drive much further to the south.
Still, as evidenced by several previous events earlier this
spring, this is a tricky forecast regime compounded by the
after-effects of Cindy. Models continue to suggest scattered
storms into Monday and Tuesday though these may be the results of
feedback mechanisms which may not pan out.




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