Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 242347
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AND DRY SHORT TERM. NEXT DISTURBANCE NEAR TUCSON ARIZONA WILL
SPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF KLBB...SOUTH
OF KCDS...MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT LOW
CLOUD RISK PRIMARILY KCDS AS WELL FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS AGAIN TOMORROW
/MORNING AND AFTERNOON/. IF STORMS DO FORM LATE TODAY THEY COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WOUND UP LOW SPINNING OVER
COLORADO AND WYOMING WITH DRY AIR ADVANCING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF TEXAS. IN ADDITION...A SMALL BUT POTENT VORTEX WAS ALSO
MOVING AROUND THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
NORTHERN SONORA...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DEPARTING OFF
TO OUR EAST. THIS LEAVES THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION IN A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...THOUGH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE PARENT LOW COULD GRAZE THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH A LITTLE LIFT.

AT THE SURFACE...20Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM
NEAR DIMMITT TO PLAINVIEW TO POST. CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT IT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HIGH-RESOLUTION AND SHORT RANGE NWP IS MIXED
ON WHETHER CI WILL EVEN OCCUR LOCALLY...BUT IF IT DOES MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
OBVIOUSLY...IF STORMS CAN FULLY REALIZE THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
THEY COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOWERING LCLS...LFCS AND INCREASING HELICITY
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY STORMS AS THEY MOVE OFF THE CAPROCK AND
THIS COULD BRING THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS EVENING. WITH
THE LACK OF ANY OBVIOUS UPPER SUPPORT...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY
WANE LATE THIS EVENING.

THE QUIET PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST EARLY
MONDAY. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY TAKES THE BULK OF THE LIFT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES /AND POINTS SOUTH/ IN THE 15-
21Z TIME-FRAME. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NORTH-
TO-SOUTH SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE DRYLINE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WHILE RAISING POPS SOLIDLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TOMORROW MORNING. A SLIM THUNDER MENTION
WAS ALSO EXPANDED WESTWARD ONTO THE CAPROCK MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
CAPTURE THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF A LATE DAY STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 60
DEGREES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S...THOUGH THEY COULD BE HELD DOWN A BIT...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...DEPENDING HOW LONG THE CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS PERSIST THERE.

LONG TERM...
OVERALL PATTERN SEEMS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH LONGTERM GUIDANCE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. WE SPEND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AS WE AWAIT
YET ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE WEST.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EARLY TUESDAY SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO WEAK
RIDGING WITH SMALL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES BY LATE TUESDAY. ECMWF PLACES
THE DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE
ROLLING PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF WILL
HAVE BEGUN TO RECOVER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND IN THE PROCESS OF
WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. THE GFS KEEPS
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST OF US WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE DRYLINE EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

BY MIDWEEK THE PATTERN BECOMES VERY FAMILIAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
ALL MAY...DEEP SURFACE GULF MOISTURE BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OUT AHEAD OF A UA DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST. DRYLINE CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEARS TAME AT THIS POINT WITH COVERAGE
PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW INCHES CLOSER ON
THURSDAY THE INCREASED ENERGY ALOFT AND ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WITH HINTS OF
AN OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEEMS TO BE LIMITED BY INSUFFICIENT TIME FOR
SURFACE INSTABILITY TO RECOVER IN TIME FOR SYNOPTIC FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...BUT DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN ANY SOLUTION OFFERED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS BEYOND FRIDAY. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY WHICH MAY BE DUE TO BOTH MODELS INDICATING A DEVELOPING
TROPICAL LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
BEGINNING AND ENDING OF THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  79  52  80 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         51  81  53  81 /  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     51  80  54  82 /  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     51  82  55  85 /  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       53  80  56  86 /  10  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   51  83  55  86 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    53  84  56  87 /  10  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     57  79  58  86 /  20  30  10  30
SPUR          55  79  56  87 /  20  30  10  20
ASPERMONT     60  79  59  90 /  20  50  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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