Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 142340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
540 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Gusty southwest winds expected to taper close to or just after
sunset this evening. Minor visibility restriction from blowing
dust at KLBB accounted for another hour or so, before improving.
Low level jet still looks like it will develop later tonight from
near KPVW to just north of KCDS - continuing LLWS remark later
tonight. Another windy day is expected Thursday, beginning late
morning or so. RMcQueen


Earlier update for patchy blowing dust and stronger winds
lingering on the Caprock into early evening. Winds should weaken
quickly a little after sunset. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018/

Despite the long dry stretch, precipitation chances are the
concern for a good portion of the forecast period. In general, the
models continue to be in pretty good agreement with the overall
evolution of the upper pattern. A closed low just off the southern
California coast this afternoon will open up and move eastward
over the desert Southwest. Additional short wave energy will dive
into the trough and keep it nearly stationary through the weekend
with a series of short wave troughs ejecting from the trough
across the southern High Plains. The first wave will eject
Thursday night, but with dry air moving into the area behind a
cold front early Friday there will need to be a period of
prolonged lift to moisten the sub-cloud layer. Thursday night is
looking more likely to remain dry but will hold onto some slight
chance wording for now given the GFS and EC trying to squeeze out
some precip. The next wave impinges on the forecast area late
Friday with a better period of lift Friday afternoon through
Friday night likely to produce some light precipitation, still
favoring the southern tier of the forecast area. Additional
periods of lift could produce some precipitation Sunday/Sunday
night and again Monday/Monday night. There is not much agreement
with how far west initiation of precipitation would occur with the
GFS by far the most bullish at this time. Given the difficulty
with precipitation production across the region this winter will
remain cautious and keep mention limited to a slight chance
mention across the Rolling Plains.

Regarding precipitation phase for Friday night`s precipitation we
have removed freezing rain mention, at least for now. Models
continue to trend warmer Friday night with overcast skies expected
as well as the initiation of low level warm advection on the back
of south to southwest flow. MOS ranges from 34-39 for Lubbock`s
low temperature and above freezing at Clovis and Amarillo as well.

Finally, tomorrow presents another warm, dry, and breezy day with
the requisite concerns for a period of elevated fire weather
conditions across much of the area during the afternoon hours.




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