Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 192046
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
246 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

GOES WV shows PV center at base of upper trough moving NE over
the four corners region. This will bring a deformation zone over
the state gradually increasing cloud cover through the day. At the
surface light and variable winds through the afternoon with a
boundary setting up from the SW to the NE just south of DIA
bringing increased southerly winds on the plains east of I-25 with
gusts to 25 mph through late evening. Main branch of the trough
will move into the region by Friday morning bringing increased SW
winds. 700mb temperatures are similar to today and with
downsloping off the Palmer you can expect upper 70s for highs over
the urban corridor. Winds will pick up ahead of the trough over
portions of southern Denver and the plains with sustained winds
from 12 to 17 mph and gusts to 30 at times. This will increase
fire weather concerns for drier grass areas on the plains for
tomorrow afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Upper level trof and and associated cold front will move across
northern Colorado Friday night and early Saturday. The main
threats will be a window of snow in the mountains and gusty winds
in the mountains and over the plains. Cross sections show wind of
snow around 06z hour window with increasing northwest orographic
flow and modest amounts of QG upward ascent. Could see amounts of
1-4 inches by early Saturday. Cross sections showing cross barrier
flow increasing to 40-50kt so could see some gusts in up around 60
mph. Strong cold front will also sweep southward over the plains
with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Main changes will be to increase
winds over the mountains and plains from Friday night through
Monday and increase chances of snow Friday night in the mountains.


Cooler on Saturday behind the cold front with highs on the plains
only in the mid to upper 50s. Colorado will remain under a
moderate northwest flow pattern through early next week. There
will be another puff of stronger winds Monday night and Tuesday as
trof sweeps across the northern high plains with associated upper
jet. High pressure aloft will rebuild over the region through
Wednesday with dry and warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period with scattered to
broken upper level clouds. Light and variable winds will prevail
through 21z. A surface boundary to the south of DIA will bring
increased southerly winds to APA but NNE lighter winds of 5 to 8
kts to DEN and BJC. Drainage is expected by 06z. Winds are
expected to increase Friday around 21z behind an upper trough with
speeds of 15 to 17 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Fire weather concerns will be heightened for Friday afternoon
between noon and 5 pm. Strong SW winds will move over the Palmer
Divide gusting to 30 in some areas with sustained winds from 15 to
18 mph. RH values will gradually decrease into the upper teens on
the plains. No fire weather highlights at this time.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Entrekin
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Bowen



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