Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240907
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
307 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

An upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest and a large trough
over the Great Lakes will produce a northwest flow aloft today.
The airmass temperature doesn`t change much today, but more sun
will result in warmer high temperatures. Cross sections show the
airmass is moist at 5000 to 10000 feet, so expect periods of
clouds, especially this evening when models show it should cloud
up again. Isolated storms will be possible along the Front Range
foothills and mountains and also along the Palmer Divide. West of
the divide will be too dry and stable while the plains remain too
stable for convection. If storms form, they are expected to be
weak and produce gusty winds to 40 mph and light rain.

Cross sections show it should be mostly cloudy this evening with
clearing after midnight. If skies clear some as planned,
overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s across
northeast Colorado. Any convection should quickly die off this
evening as the airmass stabilizes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

On Sunday upper level high pressure will be centered over southern
Arizona...with an upper level trough of low pressure covering much
of the central and eastern United States. Colorado will remain under
the influence of a weak to moderate northwest flow aloft. Weak
upslope flow will continue from the surface up to around 700
mb...which will result in another day with below normal temperatures
on the plains. The cool stable airmass will inhibit the formation of
showers and storms across the northeast plains. However...isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms will be
possible over the higher terrain where greater instability exists.

Temperatures are expected to warm to near normal values on Monday
as upper level high pressure builds over the Rocky Mountain Region.
There will be just enough residual moisture combined with daytime
heating to produce a few late afternoon and early evening showers
and storms over the higher terrain mainly south of Interstate 70.

On Tuesday...a flat upper trough moving into the western United
States is forecasted to push the upper ridge eastward into the
central plains states. This will allow a westerly flow aloft to set
up over Colorado. This pattern will produce a downslope flow along
the Front Range Urban Corridor...resulting in hot and dry
conditions. Further to the east across the plains...more available
moisture combined with an upper level disturbance may produce a few
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms.

On Wednesday...a weak cool front is expected to bring slightly
cooler temperatures to the region...with mostly dry conditions due
to a dry and stable airmass.

Thursday and Friday...an upper level trough of low pressure and a
couple of associated cold fronts should result in cooler
temperatures and a better chance for precipitation...especially
across the far northeastern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain
west of the Denver area and also to the south of the Denver area.
Scattered to broken clouds 4000 to 6000 feet will continue through
Saturday. Clouds should rise towards 00Z Sunday. Clouds are expected
to increase around 00Z with ceilings of 6000 to 10000 feet.

Light and generally south/southwest winds will prevail through
12Z. The winds are expected to turn northeasterly by 15Z. Winds
will then slowly turn to the east by 00Z Sunday, and southerly by
06Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...Meier


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