Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 030818

318 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Although the actual precipitation amounts will be minimal,
generally less than 0.05 of an inch at most locations,
precipitation coverage will be problematic through the remainder
of the weekend. The WFO PAH forecast area is targeted in broad
deformation zone, along with channeled vorticity on the west and
east ends of the WFO PAH forecast area. This may lead to isolated
sprinkles of rain where no measurable PoPs or mention of sprinkles
are planned with this forecast package. Any QPF and measurable
PoPs are limited to the more favorable deformation zone, deeper
moisture, and differential vorticity advection along the eastern
1/3 of the WFO PAH forecast area, namely the Pennyrile region of
West Kentucky and Southwest Indiana. Although most of the short
and medium range guidance had a general handle on the clouds and
measurable precipitation chances, the SREF appeared to be the most
representative in coverage through Sunday.

The NAM-WRF and ECMWF had a decent handle on temperatures and
dewpoints, along with the SREF and were used to complement the
blended guidance suite. As the mean upper low moves further to the
southeast, any sustained wind today through early sunday will be
tied closely to the ageostrophic circulation around the
deformation zone aloft. This will aid in maintaining decent cold
air advection across the area, limiting the rise in temperatures
especially today (Saturday).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Above average confidence in the long term due to decent model

High pressure at the surface and aloft should keep the region dry
through Thursday. Precipitation chances make their way into the long
term forecast starting Thursday night as the high pressure breaks
down and allows the approach of a cold front.

Due to the slow passage of said cold front, precipitation chances
remain in the forecast through Friday and may continue through at
least the first half of the upcoming weekend, however at this time
that is beyond the range of the current long term period.

Temperatures should be above normal through the period.


Issued at 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

Most of the precipitation has dried up and/or pushed north of the
TAF sites late this evening. Certainly could see more shower
development Saturday, but it may remain just east of the area, so
will not mention at this time. Did insert a TEMPO for MVFR drizzle
and a lower ceiling for the first 4 hours of the forecast at KEVV
and KOWB. Ceilings should drop to/through MVFR at all sites
overnight. IFR will be possible at KOWB and KPAH. Ceilings should
improve through the day Saturday, but KEVV and KOWB may not reach
VFR levels.

Northeast winds have been quite gusty through the evening, especially
at KPAH, where a recent observation had 19G29KT. Am expecting a
weakening trend through daybreak, but all sites should have gusts
well into the teens again through much of Saturday.




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