Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180851

251 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 251 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Main trough over the region this morning will continue to move east
today. Despite seeing some sun today in places, it will remain
chilly with highs in the 20s/30s. However, models indicate some low
level moisture moving across the EVV tri state region which could
result in some strato cu development (and maybe a few flurries?)
which will help keep temperatures down a bit.

By tonight, high pressure across the lower Mississippi Valley will
shift east along the Gulf Coast states. Meanwhile a quick moving
cold front will move southeast toward the area. As it does, the
pressure gradient really tightens up. Winds become southerly across
the region and increased markedly tonight. Warm air advection will
be ongoing during the night and we should see h85 temps actually
above zero in many places by 12Z Wed. So we will likely see temps
bottom out early in the evening and then start rising through the
late night hrs.

On Wednesday, clouds will quickly overspread the area as the front
makes its way through the region. Right now, no precipitation is
forecast with its passage, with the better chances to our north. If
anything did indeed fall, it would be most likely up in the EVV tri
state area. But we should see temperatures soar ahead of the front,
so 40s seem attainable for highs.

Some colder air tries to move back into the area behind the front
but the degree of cold air is not like previous FROPAs. Temperatures
on Thursday will at least be above freezing and even into the 40s in
parts of SEMO with a good deal of sunshine. Late in the day and into
the evening/overnight on Thursday, clouds will be increasing ahead
of a developing warm front to our south. Both the GFS and ECMWF
agree in holding off precipitation for the most part. The exception
will be in parts of SEMO after 06Z Fri. 2m meter temps off the GFS
and ECMWF, along with soundings indicate that if anything actually
fell, it could be either light rain or light freezing rain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Split flow regime should be in place early in the long term. Focus
will be on a weak lead s/wv over the southern Plains Friday,
followed by a stronger system that is forecast to move from the SW
U.S. into TX by Saturday, turning negative tilt and lifting NE
across the area Sunday. The 00z GFS is slightly faster than the
00z ECMWF with the stronger/second system. Slower was the consensus
of the prior ensemble mean solutions and cluster of the
deterministic models. Therefore will lean more toward the 00z
ECMWF, though the differences are minor for that far out.

As far as the details...the lead s/wv will spread moisture and
precip across the area Friday. Looks like by the time it arrives
it will be warm enough for mostly liquid. At 12z Friday, the NAM
and SREF are rather cold (25-28F 2m temps), and the GFS close
(30-32F), while the ECMWF is completely above 32F by then. For a
few hours early Friday morning, will continue with the R-/FZRA-
possibility. The precip should be light (even light sleet cannot
be ruled out entirely). However, if it`s cold enough to start,
could be worth watching. Kind of a low confidence call at this
point. After the passage of this lead wave, chances of precip may
decrease Friday night. The models generate random minor QPF,
though little focus. May lower PoPs a bit more. Removed the wintry
precip wording for Friday night too. Simply forecast to be too
warm at all levels.

Another weak impulse is forecast to lift across the area Saturday.
Models depict minor instability. Therefore chance of showers, and
isolated thunder. Main show, highest PoPs in for Saturday night
for showers and a few storms as forcing and deep moisture work
northeast across the area with the negative tilt system coming
out of the southern Plains.

It will remain unsettled Sunday into Sunday night as the models
phase systems and redevelop a Upper Midwest, Great Lakes mid trop
low, with a broad trof over the mid CONUS. Confidence lower in
this regime in timing moisture and lift rotating through. However
with time, will decrease PoPs Monday into Monday night.

Temperatures will essentially be a blend of MOS and Raw Model


Issued at 251 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Only a few clouds around 3-4k/ft across the region, mainly north of
a KSTL-KMVN-KHNB line. Model progs suggest moisture may be a bit
more shallow today. Having said that, still very cold low trop
air, and residual moisture should cause another flare up of clouds
like yesterday, maybe just a bit less coverage. And flurries still
cannot be ruled out, though less likely. WSW winds 5-15 kts today
will veer around to the south tonight. Light in the evening, then
picking up slightly 06-12z 5-10 kts.



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