Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 222150
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Some light showers have continued along the eastern mtns and over El
Paso county, with some isolated showers also over portions of the
southeast plains.  These could continue into the early evening
hours, especially over the mtns.  However, with an upper ridge
moving over the state this evening these showers will end and dry
conditions can then be expected over the area overnight.  The main
concern for tonight is the potential for temps in some areas to get
near freezing across portions of the southeast plains.  At this
time, it looks like locations near the KS border, El Paso county, a
good share of Pueblo county, Huerfano county and maybe Crowley
county will see the coolest temps with lows between about 32 and 34.
Northern El Paso county will probably see the coolest readings, with
lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Will issue a Frost Advisory for
the previously mentioned areas.

On Sun the upper ridge will shift east of the area as a new upper
trof moves over the western states.  Dry weather will continue over
southeast and south central CO and temps will be warmer.  Highs will
be in the 70s across southeast CO and in the mid 60s to around 70 in
the San Luis and Upper Arkansas River Valleys.  South to southwest
winds will increase Sun afternoon.  25 to 35 mph winds, with some
stronger gusts, are expected over the far southeast plains with 15
to 25 mph across the I-25 corridor areas, and 20 to 30 mph winds are
expected in the San Luis and Upper Arkansas River Valleys.  It looks
like RH values will generally be too high to worry about critical
fire weather conditions on Sun, and with the recent rainfall and
continued green-up, the fuels are probably not critical.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Not many meteorological adjustments required from earlier
meteorological reasoning with several longer term concerns
including but not limited to increased precipitation potential
from Tuesday into at least Friday, higher terrain snow amounts,
temperatures, the potential for stronger thunderstorms at times in
addition to gusty winds as well as elevated fire weather concerns
at times.

Latest longer term computer simulations...forecast model soundings
and PV analysis indicate zonal to northwesterly upper flow should
be noted over the forecast district from Sunday night into Thursday
night in advance of a developing closed upper low impacting the
region by late week/early weekend.

At this time, it still appears that the above seasonal temperatures
and relatively dry conditions of Sunday night into Monday will be
followed by unsettled and cooler conditions from Tuesday into at
least Friday(and possibly into Saturday if the latest version of
the ECMWF is correct) as upper disturbances in combination with
northerly/northeasterly surface surges impact many sections of the
forecast district during this time-frame.

At this time, it appears that the highest potential for more
widespread beneficial precipitation(including higher terrain
accumulating snow) over southern Colorado during the longer term
should be experienced from later Tuesday into at least Friday. In
addition, some computer simulations suggest that stronger
thunderstorms may also be noted at times from later Tuesday into
later next week.

In addition, will need to monitor at least the San Luis Valley for
elevated fire weather conditions from Monday into Monday evening,
although confidence not high enough to issue fire weather
highlights at this juncture.

The warmest temperatures over the majority of the forecast
district during the longer term should be experienced from later
Sunday into Monday night with coolest conditions still anticipated
from Wednesday into next Saturday.

Finally, the highest potential for gusty winds during the longer
term should be noted from Sunday evening into Monday night and
then again by next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites tonight
through Sunday.  Generally light winds can be expected tonight and
into Sunday morning, but then winds will increase. KALS will see
southwest winds at 20-30 kts Sun afternoon, KCOS should see south
winds at 15 to 25 kts, maybe as high as 30 kts, and KPUB is expected
to have south winds about 15-20 kts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM MDT Sunday for
COZ084>087-089-095-096-098-099.

&&

$$



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