Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290018
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
618 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TREND HUMIDITY
VALUES BASED ON LATEST MODEL AND OBS DATA. LOWERED HUMIDITY VALUES
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND DATA FOR THIS EVENING WITH POORER
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE...

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE INTO COLORADO.  A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING COULD BRING A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THE WARMTH OF TODAY
AND THE MIXING EFFECT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 5 TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
BUT...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10000 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RELATIVELY WARM AND MAINLY DRY...

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. LIFTED INDICES WILL BE ZERO TO
MINUS TWO...AND THERE ARE POCKETS OF CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO THE GOING FORECAST OF
ISOLATED THUNDER LOOKS GOOD....ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. SPC ALSO HAS THAT AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER.

MONDAY...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLORADO WILL BE IN-BETWEEN TROUGHS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REACH LEVELS SOME
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE COMING A BIT
CLOSER TOGETHER ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER...AND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MAY WELL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY...AND WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT...FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS
SHOULD BE ON WATCH. THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND BEHIND IT...WINDS COULD BE QUITE GUSTY
ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY MAY BE LESS WINDY...WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH COLORADO. A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING MAY TRIGGER A SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IN OR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS...KICKING UP THE NORTH WINDS AS IT PUSHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH 09Z-15Z SUNDAY. FRONT IS DRY SO NO LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 5O...AND MOST LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10,000 FEET.  FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW



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