Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251751
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1051 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

...INCREASING SNOWFALL ALONG THE CONTDVD TODAY WHICH SPREADS EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE THE REGION WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION AT THIS
TIME. REGIONAL RADARS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SCATTERED ECHOES
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CONTDVD. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES THROUGH
THE FAR SE PLAINS VERY MILD THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND HIGH MT
VALLEYS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN A TAD SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
GREAT BASIN TROUGH...WHICH NOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. AT ANY RATE...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TONIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR AREAS ALONG THE CONTDVD THROUGH TONIGHT.
OROGRAPHIC FLOW FAVORS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTS WHERE 8 TO 12 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LA GARITA MTS AS WELL AS THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES.
SNOW FALL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE HIGH MTS VALLEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH 1 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH PLACE OF SYSTEM SLOWS TIMING OF ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED TO
HIT THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 23Z-02Z AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS NOT AS
STRONG WITH H7 EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS THOUGH STILL SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PIKES REGION TONIGHT WITH CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR TELLER AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES STILL ON TRACK
WITH 4 TO 9 INCHES OVERNIGHT...GREATEST OVER PIKES PEAK. SHOULD SEE
LIGHT SNOWFALL SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN MTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA FRI...THOUGH OVERALL FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK. MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FORECAST TO BE
NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE 4 CORNERS AT 12Z FRI...WITH SYSTEM THEN
TRACKING EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
WESTERN KS BY 00Z SAT. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
TO PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH
HEAVIEST SNOWS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY IN THE DAY
SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. WITH SLIGHTLY
SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...DID EXTEND WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL 00Z SAT FOR CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ZONES...AS AT
LEAST SOME LIGHTER SNOWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRI.
CONSIDERED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WETS/SANGRES/SRN I-25
CORRIDOR FOR FRI/FRI EVENING...BUT GIVEN QUICKLY WEAKENING UPSLOPE
FLOW BY 00Z AS 700MB/500MB CIRCULATION FADES...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
MAY COME UP JUST SHORT AND WILL PUNT DECISION TO THE DAY SHIFT.
REMAINING MOUNTAINS/PLAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING PUB AND COS)
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOST
AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. CLOUDS/SNOW/COLD ADVECTION WILL
HOLD FRI MAX TEMPS DOWN...THOUGH DIDN`T GO AS COLD AS FRIGID MAV
GUIDANCE AND STUCK CLOSER TO BLENDED CONSENSUS NUMBERS.

SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY...EXPECT SNOW TO END QUICKLY OVER ALL BUT
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
BUT CHILLY TEMPS ON FRI WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW
FREEZING. LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN SAT NIGHT AS NEXT UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LEADING TO A RATHER
TRICKY MIN TEMP FORECAST. AT THIS POINT...SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL
DECOUPLE LONG ENOUGH TO DROP LOWS DOWN TOWARD GUIDANCE
NUMBERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLOWLY RISING TEMPS BY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. MAX TEMPS SUN
SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY MOST AREAS AS 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE BRIEFLY
DEVELOPS...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE LURKING NEARBY OVER NORTHEAST
CO AS NEXT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH. DEEPEST MOISTURE
STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUN...THOUGH WITH
STRENGTHENING JET OVERHEAD...SUSPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK
OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.

COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN NIGHT...WITH
FAIRLY DEEP COLD AIR AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW LEADING TO
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
DURING THE DAY MON. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT
ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE...DRIVEN MAINLY BY UPSLOPE FLOW
INTERACTING WITH JET OVERHEAD...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY ACCUMULATE SEVERAL INCHES OF VERY FLUFFY/LOW
DENSITY SNOW AS BITTERLY COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. MAX
TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS MON...THEN STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUE AS 1055MB SURFACE HIGH
DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TUE NIGHT COULD BE ESPECIALLY COLD
WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS AREA-WIDE...AND IF SKIES CLEAR...A FEW
FRESHLY SNOW COVERED SPOTS COULD REACH MINUS 15F-20F AS HEART OF
THE COLD AIR MASS MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MST THU DEC 25 2014

PACIFIC STORM MOVING INTO CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY WILL CHANGE
WEATHER IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW INCREASING AND
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT THIS TIME.
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF
THE FLIGHT AREA AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY.
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH
00Z...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. KCOS LIKELY TO GO
DOWN FIRST AND HARDEST...WITH VCSH BY 03Z AND SNOW BECOMING
WIDESPREAD 03Z-06Z. KPUB WILL SEE VCSH BY 04Z WITH SNOW BECOMING
WIDESPREAD 04Z-08Z. KALS WILL SEE VCSH BY 03Z FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH SNOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD 12Z-15Z FRIDAY. SNOW WILL
THEN BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FLIGHT AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ081-082-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ060-066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ058.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



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