Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 260514
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR AND HIGH-RES MODEL
TRENDS. SHOULD SEE PRECIP CONTINUE TO WRAP UP FROM N TO S AND BE
LARGELY DONE BU ABOUT 03Z. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENTLY...THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS SWEEPING ACROSS
THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS OF 3 PM...AND VIGOROUS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT WERE EDGING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW LEVEL DIPS TO RIGHT AROUND 4600 FEET
UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 3
INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
MORNING RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH THE SFC
FRONT...BUT AS OF 3 PM WERE CLIMBING BACK UP TO AROUND
40F...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE 4 CORNERS
AREA TONIGHT...AND LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH DRY AND GRADUALLY
WARMING CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW RIGHT
AROUND 60 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS
AND TERRAIN. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A WEAK WAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. HAVE
VERY MINIMAL POPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
THEN DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE STATE. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE
PLAINS.

LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY MOVING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH COLORADO SUNDAY. GFS KEEPS MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS PRINTING OUT SOME QPF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON THE PLAINS.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN. GFS SHOWS A TREND TOWARD DIURNAL QPF DUE TO CONVECTION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER THROUGH THIS SAME
PERIOD. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25...AND MILD TEMPERATURES. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES.
CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH WIND FORECAST ON THURSDAY. NAM12/MET
GUIDANCE IS THE LONE HOLD OUT FORECASTING SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR KCOS
AND KPUB DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH RES MODELS AND GFS/MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS STILL PRETTY STRONG ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE SIDED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR KCOS AND KPUB THURS MORNING. AS GRADIENT ALOFT
RELAXES...THINK A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL WINDS KICK IN AGAIN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AT KALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
ON THURSDAY. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT


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