Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 130525
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will increase across the higher terrain tonight into
   Wednesday.

 - Spring storm to impact the area through the later part of
   this week, with widespread precipitations for the region.

 - Heavy and impactful snow for the mountains and Palmer Divide
   area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Currently...widespread mid and high cloud cover will continue to
spread across Colorado through this afternoon.  Temperatures have
warmed nicely with 50s to 60s across the region, with a couple
degrees of further warming expected this afternoon.  Winds have
generally been in the 10 to 15 mph range, with the strongest winds
in the gap wind prone areas along I-25.

Tonight...an upper trough over the Northern Rockies will dig south
across Idaho, while an upper trough develops across the
Intermountain West.  This will spread increasingly southwest flow
across Colorado overnight.  Expect snow to develop along the
Continental Divide by this evening, and continue through Wednesday
morning.  Snowfall amounts overnight look heaviest across the San
Juan Mountains, where 2 to 4 inches are forecast.  From the La
Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains, an inch or two of
snowfall is expected through morning.  Dry conditions are forecast
across the Plains.   Overnight lows will fall into the 20s across
the San Luis Valley, while 30s to lower 40s impact the Plains.

Wednesday...the trough from Idaho will phase with the Intermountain
West trough on Wednesday, with continued southwesterly flow along
the Continental Divide.  This will keep snow going throughout the
day, with heavier snow expected by late afternoon.  Additional
snowfall amounts will range in the 3 to 6 inch range by Wednesday
evening.

Across the Plains, a cold front will sag south by mid day, reaching
the Highway 50 corridor by early afternoon.  Temperatures will warm
nicely before the front brings cooler air in the region.  Highs will
top out in the 50s to lower 60s for most of the Plains.  The
exception will be across the Palmer Divide, where highs will remain
in the 40s.  Energy moving through the southwesterly flow aloft will
spread rain and higher elevation snow showers to the Eastern
Mountains and Palmer Divide by mid day, then activity will spread
east into the I-25 corridor by mid to late afternoon with the cold
front.  Models are develop weak instability along the I-25 corridor,
and a few rumbles of thunder may be possible into early evening.
Snow levels look to start out high, with snow confined to elevations
above 7 kft.  Not a lot of cold air behind this initial cold front,
with temperatures falling into the upper 40s by evening.  Lower
elevations will see all rain at the onset. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Wednesday Night - Saturday: A wet and cool end of the week is
expected, as a Spring storm system impacts the area. The synoptic
pattern will be a unique, if not messy, one. A broad, positively
tilted trough over the region will begin to elongate and become
stretched out, as a wave on the western periphery of this feature
digs southward around the four corners region and evolves into a
cutoff-low. This will be a rather dynamic pattern over south central
and southeastern Colorado, with multiple forcing factors influencing
the area, and abundant moisture streaming over the area to play
with. Not only that, but this will be a "warmer" storm system, with
the core of the cooler temperatures remaining to the southwest of
the area - this will heavily influence precipitation across the
region. With that all said, with forcing increasing over the region
at the surface and synoptically, precipitation will surge in
coverage area wide, with the heaviest precipitation expected along
the mountains and Palmer Divide region. For the mountains and Palmer
Divide, precipitation is anticipated to remain all snow given the
elevation and associated colder temperatures, even despite the
"warmer" system. For the valleys, snow is expected throughout this
period as well, though the San Luis Valley is anticipated to
experience some rain/snow mix during the daytime hours. With that
said though, parts of the western San Luis Valley are anticipated to
experience moderate to heavy snow as eastern flow slams into the San
Juan and La Garita Mountains. As for the lower elevations, parts of
the I-25 corridor and eastern plains, its a much messier outlook.
While this forecaster wishes they had more confidence in
precipitation and snow accumulation for these areas, the details are
as clear as mud. With that said, here`s the current thoughts;
these lower elevations will see a range of rain, rain/snow mix,
and snow, as the snow level fluctuates with the diurnal cycle.
Areas closer to the terrain will experience the greatest change
in precipitation type from rain to snow, while areas across the
far eastern plains will predominantly remain rain. Not only will
precipitation type and the transitions zones be tricky to nail
down, but snow accumulations for these areas will be highly
variable as accumulation and melting cycles take place given
several above average temperature days preceding this event, the
"warmer" nature of the system, and some heavy precipitation
falling during the daytime hours. Regardless though, this system
is expected to bring plentiful moisture to south central and
southeastern Colorado, and any snow that falls with it, will be
heavy and wet. As for temperatures, a cool set of days is in
store for the region. With the pattern and precipitation in
place, much of the area will remain below seasonal temperatures
for mid March.

Sunday - Monday: For the end of the weekend and into the start of
next week, a downtick in active weather is anticipated for south
central and southeastern Colorado, though some unsettled weather
will continue. Flow will continue to be relatively messy with
northerly flow developing over the area, but with some influence
still from the now weakening cutoff-low. With most major forcing
lessening, precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage for
much of the region. The exception to to this will along and around
the higher terrain as some forcing remains in place over the area.
As for temperatures, a mild couple of days is expected, as the
unsettled pattern limits major warming. This will keep the area
below seasonal values, though with minor warming for the start of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR will likely continue through about 00 UTC on the 14 (late
tomorrow afternoon). Winds will take on a generally north to
northeast component starting tomorrow morning and continue
through the period. rain/snow and lowe cigs will push into the
region late tomorrow afternoon/early evening with cigs lowering
and precipitation increasing. Snow is expected KCOS and KALS at
the end of this fcst period with a possible mix at KPUB towards
midnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ058-060-
061.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for COZ059-
062>064-066-068.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM MDT Friday for
COZ064>068.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning for COZ069>071.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM MDT Friday
for COZ072>075-079-080-087-088.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Friday
for COZ076-081-082.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Friday
for COZ077-078-084.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to noon
MDT Friday for COZ083-085-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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