Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 091150
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
450 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 450 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

...Moderate to locally heavy snow through this morning Central Mts...

Continuous feed of moisture into the Central mountains along with an
embedded disturbance has generated some moderate to heavy snow over
portions of Chaffee and Lake counties with LXV reporting 1 inch per
hour rates between 2-3 AM.  Fairly healthy radar returns across the
Central and northern Mts of the state early this morning feeding into
the region has prompted the issuance of a winter weather advisory
for the Eastern Sawatch and Western Mosquito range and central Lake
county for the remainder of this morning.  Starting to see some
drying approach NW CO...so majority of the heavier snow should be
this morning...so winter weather advisories are set to expire
at Noon. Gusty west to northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts
up to 45 mph will cause areas of blowing snow over the mountain
passes...particularly Tennessee and Fremont Passes this morning.

Otherwise...should see a good warm up for the lower eastern slopes
and I-25 corridor this afternoon as lee trof brings westerly winds
down into the lower elevations.  Already seeing some 20s and lower
30 degree temperatures over the SE mts spreading down the eastern
slopes...while lower elevations (including KCOS and KPUB) are sitting
in the single digits.  Challenge today will be how much warming
occurs farther east where sfc winds stay southeasterly.  Have Kept
highs on the cooler side of guidance for the lower Arkansas river
valley to the east of KLHX today where temperatures may struggle to
warm out of the 30s.  Along and west of I-25...lower elevations
should warm into the 40s to mid 50s...overall a nice jump from the
frigid temperatures the past couple days.

Westerly winds across the higher elevations will start to increase
again tonight as the upper jet sags southward again ahead of the next
system entering the Pacific NW.  Lows tonight should be milder than
the past few nights...though normally cold valleys (San Luis Valley)
where strong surface based inversions develop will still drop into
the single digits for lows.  Lower eastern slopes where westerly
winds will continue through the night will stay mild with lows in
in the mid 20s to lower 30s.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

.Saturday and Sunday...Next disturbance arrives in the region
Saturday afternoon and leaves the region Sunday afternoon. West
to northwest flow aloft will bring another round of snow the
Continental Divide region, which the heaviest snow over the
mountains of Lake and Chaffee Counties. Grids currently have
amounts exceeding the criteria for a winter weather advisory.
After coordination with GJT and BOU, decided to let the day shift
dicide to issue any highlights. Currently highlights are already
in effect for the mountains and wanted to avoid confusion. With
700mb wind approaching 40 knots, anticipate some blowing snow over
the higher mountains and passes. West to northwest flow is not
orographically favorable for the eastern San Juan Mountains and
grids only have a couple of inches for these regions. Further
east, gusty west winds will also develop over and near the
eastern mountains. Downslope flow will warm temperatures to near
50 and above over much of the interstate 25 corridor on Saturday.
On Sunday a weak cold front may move southward across portions of
the eastern plains bringing a few degrees of cooling.

.Monday through Thursday...Next trough will move across Colorado
around Tuesday. Pattern is similar to the current event with precipitation
mostly be confined to along the Continental Divide region and with
the heaviest snow over the mountains of Lake and Chaffee Counties
Tuesday and into Wednesday. On the eastern plains, a cold front
will move southward sometime Tuesday into Wednesday. Models differ
on how much of the cold air moves into eastern Colorado with the
GFS being colder. Grids show a cooling trend for this period on
the plains. If the GFS verifies, temperatures will be colder with the
cold temperatures continuing into Thursday. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 450 AM MST Fri Dec 9 2016

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today...with winds under 15
kts.  Continental Divide will see IFR to LIFR conditions through the
morning with SHSN and BLSN over the higher passes.  W to NW winds
will gust to around 40 kts across the higher elevations. Conditions
should start to improve after 19z as drier air moves into the
region. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT


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