Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPUB 191733
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1033 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

THIS MORNING LOW STRATUS IS BEING REPORTED AND CAN BE SEEN IN SOME
AREAS ON SATELLITE ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
WL MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
IN THESE AREAS.

AN UPR SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING...LEAVING NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE AREA.  SOME MSTR IN THIS NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE CENTRAL MTNS TODAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
MORNING.  THE REST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY.  MET GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY IN LAKE AND
CHAFFEE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND FOR MAXIMUMS HAS MET AND MAV LATELY HAVE BEEN
TOO WARM. SOME CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WINDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
WARMING ON THE PLAINS.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STRONGER AND WETTER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
COLORADO. MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
COTTONWOOD PASS. INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT ON THE WR SAT TABLE
EXCEEDS 2 STANDARD ANOMALIES...INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO OVER 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER THE PASSES AND HIGHER
MOUNTAINS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SNOWFALL TOTALS APPROACHING WARNING
CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS STILL THE FIFTH TO
SIXTH PERIODS...AND TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WATCH. SUSPECT THAT
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
EAST...DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ON MONDAY...TRAILING DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND
EC TRY TO TURN THE 700MB NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE GAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS TO MUCH OF
THESE LOCATIONS...WHICH IS OK FOR THIS FAR OUT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS...STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE ARE TIMING...STRENGTH
AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. LATEST EC
AND GFS SUGGEST A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS DAY. LATEST SIMULATIONS HAVE SNOW WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHWARD. MUCH TOO EARLY
TO GET SPECIFIC ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WITH
GUSTY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY OR FRIDAY OVER OR NEAR OUR CWA.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED AT KPUB AND KCOS THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AT KALS...STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS 12Z-16Z THEN CLEARING 16Z-18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.