Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230532
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1032 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 326
PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

High clouds have been spreading eastward acrs the area today.  Web
cams not showing any snow yet over Monarch and Wolf Creek passes.
Tonight as the next weather system moves onshore and begins heading
toward the Great Basin, mid level moisture will increase and snow
will begin falling along the Continental Dvd.  This will be the
beginning of a long period of snowfall for the Continental Dvd. The
NAM has very little pcpn spreading into the Sangre De Cristo mtns by
Mon morning, even though the GFS does show a little more than the
NAM, snow amounts should be light.  The San Luis Valley and the
Upper Arkansas Valley are not really expected to see much either.

On Mon southwest winds increase across all of the area as the upper
trof remains over the western U.S.   Snow accumulations will
continue along the Continental Dvd, but not much is expected over
the eastern mtn, at least until later in the afternoon. The lower
elevations should be dry on Mon and the sern plains wl see highs in
the 50s to near 60.  Mon night the upper trof moves acrs the state.
Snow will be found over all the mountain areas through the first
half of the night, along with fairly good chances for pcpn over the
high valleys.  Some pcpn may also spread over the I-25 corridor but
the rest of the southeast plains probably won`t see more than some
isold showers, if that.  In the late night hours the upper low moves
into wrn NE with west to NW flow aloft ovr the forecast area and
breezy westerly sfc winds in many locations.  The forecast models
also show pcpn chances decreasing acrs all of the area, with mainly
just some lingering snow by 12Z over portions of the Continental Dvd.

Later Tue morning as the upper low continues moving eastward acrs
NE, the sfc wind become windy from the N or NW acrs eastern CO, and
this continues through the day.  Any pcpn during the day Tue will
mainly be isold to scattered, and mainly over the mtn areas.  Temps
will be cooler on Tue, probably in the upper 30s to mid 40s over the
sern plains and mostly in the 20s in the high valleys.  North to
northwest winds continue Tue night with some light lingering snow
showers over some of the mtn areas, and possibly along the I-25
corridor.  A couple of the previous runs of the NAM showed the
possibility of several inches of snow Tue night along and adjacent
to the eastern mtns as a result of upslope flow, but the 18Z run has
eliminated this.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 326 PM MST Sun
Jan 22 2017

There is pretty good agreement through the extended period with
generally low ensemble spreads and higher forecast confidence.

Wednesday through Friday...a slow moving broad upper trough is
forecast to drop south across Colorado. This will bring near
continuous light snowfall for the mountains, and especially the
Continental Divide. Snow accumulations do not look overly
impressive with 1 to 3 inches expected each day. Dry conditions
are expected to prevail across the Plains. Temperatures will be
cool through this period with 30s expected across the Plains.

Saturday and Sunday...the upper trough is forecast to continue
south into Mexico by Saturday with high pressure building over the
Great Basin. Broad northerly flow aloft will bring dry conditions
to the area for the weekend. Temperatures will also begin to warm
with 40s for highs on Saturday and lower 50s by Sunday for the
lower elevations.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1021 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

KCOS and KPUB...

VFR next 24 hours. Winds will be an issue by late tomorrow morning
as gusty southwest surface winds will develop as very strong jet
stream moves over the region. Gusts to over 30 knots will be
possible during the afternoon time period.

KALS

VFR expected for the most of the taf duration. We may see some
brief snow squalls tomorrow as an upper disturbance moves across
the valley. It will be quite windy tomorrow afternoon with gusts
above 35 knts possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ073-075.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ059-061-
064-067.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ058-060-066-
068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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