Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Issued at 914 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Updated forecast to allow WSW to expire across the southern
mountains. Also adjusted POPs as precip is decreasing rather
rapidly across most of the region. /Hodanish

UPDATE Issued at 519 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Given current satellite and radar trends, decided to extend the
ongoing Winter Weather Advisory for the Southern Sangres until 9
pm this evening. An additional 2 to 4 inches of new snow expected.
Incorporated latest obs data. Moore


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

An upper level low will continue tracking slowly east-northeast acrs
CO this evening and is forecast to move into south central NE by 12Z
Sat.  There have been areas of persistent light rain acrs the
southeast plains today, with showers increasing over the eastern and
central CO mtns.  Web cams on La Veta Pass show snow falling and it
looks like it is accumulating a little.

The NAM, GFS and HRRR show good pcpn coverage along the Sangre de
Cristo and Wet mtns and the central mtns and far sern plains thru
the evening hours, with isolated to scattered showers elsewhere.
This could lead to a few additional inches of snow accumulations in
these mtn areas.  Will leave the Winter Wx Advisory for the southern
Sangres in effect.  As temps cool this evening, some of the lower
elevation showers may change over to snow, but little if any
accumulation is expected.  By late night, as the low moves east of
the area, pcpn will end in most if not all locations, and clouds
will decrease from west to east. With the cloud cover decreasing the
temps will quickly cool and areas near the I-25 corridor are
expected to see temps drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s, thus a
Freeze Warning is in effect from the Monument Hill area to the NM

On Saturday, drier northwest flow aloft will be over the area and
most locations will be dry.  However, there is expected to be enough
instability and moisture over the area for a few afternoon showers
over and near the mtns.  Temps will be warmer on Sat but will still
generally be about 10 degrees below average.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Saturday night through Tuesday...Models continue to indicate an
active pattern across the region through the first half of the week,
as northwest flow aloft with multiple shortwaves stretches across
Colorado. This will allow for scattered convection across the higher
terrain, and isolated activity for much of the lower elevations,
each day, though the highest potential for showers and thunderstorms
will occur Sunday through Tuesday morning. A couple of northerly
surges will drop cooler air south into the forecast area, one late
Sunday and another late Monday. Expect max temps in the 60s and 70s
on Sun, 60s to around 70F on Mon, then 50s and 60s for Tue.

Wednesday through upper ridge builds into the desert
southwest for Wed, providing for dry conditions and warming temps.
The ridge edges to the east for Thu, allowing isolated mt convection
during the aftn. On Fri the ridge moves east and westerly flow aloft
pushes into the state, allowing for continued warming and isolated
mt convection during the aftn and eve. Temps are expected to warm
back into the 60s and 70s for Wed, then 70s to lower 80s for Thu and
Fri. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. There is a slight chance that some
brief MVFR (cigs) could develop at KCOS tonight. Winds at KCOS and
KPUB will have a northerly component tonight into tomorrow morning
but should be light. Winds tomorrow afternoon are expected to be
quite light at all 3 taf sites. Diurnal wind flow will develop
once again tomorrow night.


Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Saturday for COZ084>088.



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