Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161725
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow continues over the mountains with new Winter Weather
  Advisories issued.

- Snow is possible over the San Luis Valley this morning and
  over the southern I-25 corridor later this evening through
  tomorrow morning. Slushy road conditions are possible under
  stronger snow bands.

- Cool and unsettled weather Sunday.

- Warmer and drier into the work week, with chances of showers
  returning by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A steady stream of shortwaves are being emitted from a cut-off
closed low over the desert southwest and will continue to pass
over southern Colorado throughout the short term forecast period
(Saturday 6am - Sunday 6am). The shortwaves will bring persistent
snow showers over the higher elevations. Some of those snow
showers will make it over the southern I-25 corridor late this
evening and into the overnight in response to strong PVA, some
deformation aloft, and a weak cold front associated with a low
pressure system to the over eastern half of North America. Similar
to what the region has been experiencing lately there are snow
level issues. Initially precipitation over Huerfano and Las Animas
Counties will start as rain, but around midnight temperatures
will decrease to around freezing and will hover around freezing
through rest of the overnight. The snow will be heavy and wet and
will have a tough time accumulating on roadways. If there are
period of particularly heavy snowfall, slushy roadways will be
possible. We currently have a Winter Storm Warning in effect for
the eastern San Juans until 12PM today - we will transition that
into a Winter Weather Advisory through 12PM on Sunday after that
Warning expires. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the
upper Rio Grande River Valley and the La Garita Mountains from
6am today through 12pm Sunday. And finally, we also issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains
from 6PM tonight through 12PM on Sunday. Though there will be
snow falling this morning over the eastern mountains, there will
be a lull of precipitation until this evening when the heavier
snowfall begins (due to the previously described reasons).

Outside of the snow chances, light rain is expected over the
majority of the San Luis Valley and north of the rain snow line over
the plains, reaching just south of Pueblo.  High temperatures over
the plains will range from the 40s to upper 50s (warmer temps the
further east) and the mountain valleys will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to low
30s over the plains and the teens to 20s over the mountain
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Sunday-Sunday night...Cool and unsettled weather continues across
the Rockies on Sunday, especially over and near the higher terrain,
as another lobe of energy rotates through the weak east to southeast
upper level flow around the cutoff low across the Desert Southwest.
This energy, combined with east to northeast low to mid level flow
associated another front moving across the plains from passing
northern stream energy across the Upper Midwest, will keep
precipitation ongoing across the southern mtns and immediate
adjacent plains through the day Sunday before precipitation wanes
Sunday afternoon and evening, as drier air works into the region.
The greatest accumulations through this period look to be across the
eastern slopes of the Wet and Sangre de Cristo mtns, as well as the
eastern slopes of the eastern San Juan and La Garita mtns, where
Winter Weather Advisories are in place through 18Z Sunday.
Temperatures over and near the higher terrain on Sunday remain below
seasonal averages, with around seasonal highs in the mid to upper
50s across the far southeast Plains.

Monday-Wednesday...Warmer and drier weather expected areawide for
early next week, ahead of increasing chances of showers and a few
possible thunderstorms, later Tuesday through Wednesday, as models
indicate the Desert Southwest cutoff low finally weakening and
ejecting across the Rockies through mid week. Timing and location of
said ejecting system remains in question, through latest ensemble
data suggests a weak wave moving across the Rockies on Wednesday.
Temperatures look to warm back to at or slightly above seasonal
levels through the middle of the next week.

Thursday-Saturday...Upper level ridging building across the region
on Thursday gives way to increasing westerly flow into next weekend,
as more eastern Pacific energy moves across the West Coast. Latest
models differ on how this energy continues to translate east, with
the potential for a split flow pattern developing across the
Intermountain West complicating the forecast across the Rockies.
Latest NBM and ensemble data keep the best chances of precipitation
along and west of the ContDvd into the weekend, with temperatures
remaining at or above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

KALS: Winds will turn more easterly through the afternoon as snow
showers form over the adjacent mountains and move into the valley.
Showers are expected to drift to the terminal around the 00Z
timeframe, bringing cigs and vis down into MVFR and staying there
through the rest of the period. Precipitation should end at the
terminal within a few hours, though they will linger in the area
through most of the overnight tonight.

KCOS: Gusty north winds will be in place through this afternoon,
weakening slightly this evening. Snow showers will form over the
Pikes Peak Region this evening, by about 04Z. Currently, no
precipitation is expected directly at the terminal with medium
confidence, but conditions will be monitored for needed adjustments.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will dip into MVFR as more clouds roll in
this evening and remain through the end of this forecast period.

KPUB: Breezy northwest winds will last through the period, with
mostly VFR conditions. Some snow showers are possible in the
vicinity of the terminal tonight, but no precip is expected at the
terminal at this time. Clouds will increase and cigs will lower
towards MVFR tonight and last into tomorrow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Sunday for COZ065-066.
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for COZ067-068.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Sunday for COZ067-068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT
Sunday for COZ072>075-079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...WANKOWSKI
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO


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