Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210327
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDENSDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS AND FOG TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE HARD TO TELL IF IT WILL BE FOG...LOW CLOUDS OR BOTH.
BUT...IN ANY EVENT...COULD PROVE TO LIMIT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR OR EVEN LIFR JUST DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE IT COMES IN.
DON`T EXPECT IT WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE KPUB OR KCOS TAF
SITES...BUT IT MIGHT HAVE A SHOT.  WON`T PUT IN TAFS FOR NOW BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR LATER.

ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA.  THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF MVFR/IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPOTTY SUCH CONDITIONS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH
VALLEYS TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES BY 00Z.  THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH 00Z.  IN GENERAL...KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES
OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG IMPACTING THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES 06Z-15Z.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING THE KALS TAF SITE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.  ALL PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW TO BE ACKNOWLEDGED IN CURRENT TAF FORECASTS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW


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