317
FXUS65 KPUB 180534
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1134 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Watch allowed to expire over Baca, Prowers and Bent Counties.
Still some strong storms over Baca County until around midnight
but chance of severe is low now.

UPDATE Issued at 638 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Watch cancelled for all but Baca, Bent and Prowers Counties.
Severe potential has shifted east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Will keep discussion brief due to ongoing active meteorological
conditions with near-short range meteorological issues continuing to
be temperatures, pops and thunderstorm intensity potential.

CWFA currently experiencing areas of showers and thunderstorms, with
some stronger storms over southern sections in combination with
afternoon temperatures running below mid-September climatological
averages.

Latest PV analysis, real-time data, computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that relatively active
meteorological conditions will continue into this evening(with some
stronger to possibly marginally severe storms possible over
primarily southern and southeastern sections of the forecast
district as evidenced by Severe Thunderstorm Watch #486 which is in
effect until 10 PM MDT).  In addition, minimum temperatures tonight
are projected to run near to slightly above mid-September seasonal
averages.

For Monday, expect generally tranquil, dry and warmer conditions
over the forecast district as dry zonal to southwesterly upper flow
develops over the forecast district, which will allow maximum
temperatures to climb above seasonal averages by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Monday night-Tuesday...Westerly flow increases across the region
Monday night and Tuesday, as another embedded wave translates across
the Northern Rockies. Increasing westerly flow will lead to a breezy
to windy conditions across the higher terrain, with the downslope
flow developing lee troughing across the I-25 corridor, leading to
breezy conditions developing overnight along and west of I-25. Lee
trough kicks out across the eastern plains through the day Tuesday,
with breezy south to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph expected across
the lower elevations Tuesday afternoon. This, along with dry and
above seasonal temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s, will lead to
elevated fire danger on Tuesday, and depending on fuel status, may
need fire weather highlights for portions of the area.

Tuesday night-Thursday...Westerly flow aloft moderates through
Wednesday with southwest flow aloft expected to slowly increase once
again on Thursday, ahead of a deep upper trough digging into the
Great Basin. Passing Northern Rockies system sends a dry cold front
across the eastern Plains Tuesday night, with slightly cooler
temperatures expected on Wedensday. Dry weather and warming
temperatures expected on Thursday, with high back to above seasonal
levels.

Friday-Sunday...A cooler and more unsettled weather pattern takes
shape across the area, with longer range models continuing to differ
on timing and strength of the upper trough/low digging into the
Great Basin on Friday, and its ejection across the Rockies
through the weekend. Although this remains well into the future,
the pattern supports the potential for severe weather across the
eastern Plains early in the period, along with the potential for
higher elevation snowfall and cooler temperatures area wide later
in weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Upper disturbance will continue to set off isolated showers and
storms through the night. Threats will include lightning, gusty
winds to around 40 mph, small hail and snow above 11,000 feet.
Precipitation will end Monday as very dry, westerly flow moves
across the flight area. The showers associated with tonight`s
upper disturbance will bring local MVFR to LIFR flight conditions
until about 12z. Otherwise, VFR expected through Monday. This
includes the KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW