000
FXUS65 KPUB 281107
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
407 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...DRY AND MILD DOWN BELOW...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.  THE PEAK WINDOW
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.  FOR EVERYBODY ELSE...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD
DAY. NOT THE RECORD WARMTH OF YESTERDAY...BUT STILL 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL INCLUDE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VERY MILD BY LATE JANUARY STANDARDS.

TONIGHT...THE FIRST SIGNS OF A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
START TO APPEAR.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER AND RIGHT NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LW

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTERESTING HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN
THE PAST 24 HRS.  GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A BIT...AND SWING THE UPPER
TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN FIRST THOUGHT. SO...A SLOWER START
FOR PCPN ON THU SINCE THE TROUGH WILL BE JUST MOVING ONSHORE...WITH
JUST ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN THE EVE. MODELS MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CA AND AZ ON FRI...AND THIS IS WHEN PCPN
STARTS TO BLOOM OVER THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY THE SW MTS/CONTDVD. THE
LOW STARTS TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON SAT...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH MERGES
WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS MT AND WY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PCPN FOR THE CWA ALONG WITH
A REINFORCING BLAST OF COLDER AIR. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
COLD THESE THREE DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE 40S FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THE
MTS MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF TOTAL NEW
SNOW FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PCPN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUN AS NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTS...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MON AND
TUE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS WITH ONLY SPOTTY ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE PASS.

TONIGHT...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FLIGHT AREA WILL START A
TRANSITION INTO A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COLORADO PLAINS.  THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS...COOLER AIR AND AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS.  THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY BUT THEN THINGS WILL START TO TRANSITION 06Z-12Z.  KCOS AND
KPUB COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CLOSE TO 12Z.  FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR KALS.  GUIDANCE IS
CONFLICTING WITH ONE SET KEEPING IT VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE
OTHER INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY.  NOT REALLY SURE WHAT TO EXPECT.  MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH BUT WITHOUT ANY RECENT PRECIPITATION NOT
SURE IF IT WILL SATURATE.  WILL INTRODUCE SOME MVFR FOG FOR NOW AND
AWAIT LATER MODEL DATA BEFORE TAKING IT DOWN TO THE FLOOR. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW