000
FXUS65 KPUB 091052
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
452 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION
WITH SOME VARIABLE MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE EARLY MARCH/EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY LOW-GRADE WINDS.

CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGING AND EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.

WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10F TO 25F WARMER
THAN VALUES NOTED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEARING OR EXCEEDING 70F
SHOULD BE NOTED.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO
RUN SOME 5F TO 15F DEGREES WARMER MONDAY MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO
THIS MORNINGS MINIMUM VALUES.  FINALLY...OVERALL LOW-GRADE GRADIENT
WINDS ARE PROJECTED DURING THE SHORT-TERM...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES. LEE
TROF DEEPENS IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALLOWING FOR
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM MONDAY. WITH H7 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +3
TO +7C...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS AS WARM AS THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...WITH POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INTO THE ADJACENT
I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...ALTHOUGH METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE HITTING MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS...FUELS MAY STILL BE TOO MOIST IN MOST AREAS FROM THE
RECENT RAIN/SNOWFALL EVENT.

UPPER TROF WILL DROP THROUGH CO FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ACROSS NW
AZ/SRN NV ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS AN INITIAL RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY
MORNING...STARTING AS EARLY AS 8-9 AM ACROSS TELLER/NRN EL PASO
COUNTY...THEN SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON. THIS FRONT
LOOKS COLDER THAN THE LAST ONE...SO BELIEVE THE RAIN/SNOW SWITCH
OVER WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY...WITH COS AND KPUB SEEING RAIN
CHANCE TO SNOW AROUND/BEFORE NOON...WITH THE SWITCH OVER ONLY AN
HOUR OR TWO LATER FOR THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND MAJORITY OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ACCOMPANYING AND FOLLOWING FROPA...WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH
POSSIBLE. STILL UP IN THE AIR AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK AS HEAVY AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD BRING HIGHER LIQUID/SNOW RATIOS. THE
IMPACT COULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW
TOTALS LOOK LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS STORM...DUE TO A COMBO OF
MODERATE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS THIS MAY HIT
UP THAT WAY AT THE TAIL END OR JUST AFTER THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR...HOWEVER THIS TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS FRONTS
OFTEN ARRIVE SOONER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST. AS FOR SNOWFALL
TOTALS...TOO SOON TO SAY...BUT CURRENT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE
IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW END ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE...AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...SUGGESTING THE
NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRES AND PIKES
PEAK/RAMPARTS WILL SEE THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...GFS KEEPS
AMOUNTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHILE NAM12...WHICH IS
PLAYING CATCH UP AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY NOW HAS SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS FOR THESE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL SEE LIGHTER AMOUNTS...WHILE THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS FROM ROUGHLY PUEBLO EASTWARD WILL SEE AMOUNTS
UNDER 2 INCHES WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE FAR EASTERN BORDER LIKELY
TO ONLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE
COLD SIDE WITH THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH READINGS FALLING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY...TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY IN
SPRING-LIKE FASHION FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE CUT OFF LOW ACROSS NRN AZ WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT ACROSS NM LATE
IN THE WEEK BUT LOOKS PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED BY THAT POINT. 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THOUGH 06Z GFS
RUN NOW SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SAT
NIGHT. 00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR NRN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH 06Z GFS RUN HAS
BUMPED THIS SYSTEM FARTHER EAST AND NOW KEEPS FORECAST AREA DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH THIS FAR OUT. -KT


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAFS SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND EASTERN
COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...77