000
FXUS65 KPUB 061726
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IN STORE. UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST TODAY WITH DRIER AIR CIRCULATING DOWN ITS EASTERN
SIDE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO.
PRECIPITATION WATERS DON`T CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SO
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SPARSE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.  GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE EDGE OF THE LOW GRADE MONSOON
PLUME.  LOW END SCATTERED POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THIS AREA.

DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...SO PLAN TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE A
BOUNDARY STALLS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  VARIOUS HIGH RES
SHORT RANGE MODELS BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
CONVERGENCE AXIS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THESE WILL
MAINLY BE HIGH BASED...AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY
FOR NOW.  MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WITH INVERTED V STRUCTURE TO
SOUNDINGS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
MAKERS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS.
SOUTHEAST PLAINS SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME HITTING AROUND THE
CENTURY MARK TODAY THOUGH IT DOESN`T APPEAR THAT ANY RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN TODAY.  (RECORD HIGHS:  COS 98 IN 1964...PUB 105 IN
1991...ALS 94 IN 1989)

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. NSSL 4KM WRF KEEPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH 06Z ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AS A LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP THIS EVENING.  OTHER
MODELS ARE EITHER FARTHER NORTH OR NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS IDEA.
THUS HAVE KEPT POPS NIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM EARLIER FORECASTS WITH PRIMARY
LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS REMAINING POPS...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TEMPERATURES.

UPPER RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND UTAH FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS
PANHANDLE/OKLAHOMA REGION BY LATER THIS WEEK.

INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
OVER MANY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT(PRIMARILY THE WESTERN
2/3RDS) FROM TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE DEVELOPS OVER CWFA IN WAKE OF INITIAL NORTHERLY SURGE
WHICH IS PROJECTED TO BE MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY SURGES PROJECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE(PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS) OVER MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
RECENT AREA BURN SCARS(SUCH AS THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST
BURN SCARS) WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM(ALTHOUGH TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
-TSRA SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE VCTS
INTO THE TAF SITES AS PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT.
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS AND PALMER DIVIDE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCAL
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS AND LIGHTNING...WITH STORMS DYING QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN