Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

Shortwave embedded in NW flow aloft is currently spreading snow into
the central mountains with latest obs, webcams and surrounding
radars suggesting heaviest is falling to the north of Cottonwood
Pass. This will continue through the morning before gradually
diminishing through the afternoon with another 2 to 4 inches of
accumulation possible.  High res models suggest a band of showers
will also spread southward across the Palmer Divide and portions of
the southeast plains early this morning, along/behind another cold
front which will move through early this morning. Dew point
depressions are still rather high, so it will take time for low
levels to moisten...however the Palmer Divide could see a brief
period of mixed rain/snow showers for a time this morning, though
not looking for much in the way of accumulation. Some brief spotty
rain showers will be possible across the remainder of the plains
where these too should come to an end by this afternoon.
Temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than yesterday by
around 15 degrees or a little more across the plains, with readings
around 3-5 degrees cooler out west.

Building upper ridge will approach from the west overnight with
surface lee trof redeveloping and westerly drainage winds setting in
overnight.  This should help keep lower eastern slopes on the warm
side while all other areas will likely see a quick drop off in
temperatures this evening.  Should see another round of wave
cloudiness spread in overnight which may help keep temperatures
slightly warmer as well, particularly near the mountains. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

Minimal adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning with main longer term issues being above seasonal
temperatures in combination with gusty winds/localized fire
weather threat at times.

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected over the
forecast district during the balance of the longer term with
recent computer simulations, forecast model soundings and
PV/precipitable water analysis indicating that strong upper
ridging located along a southern California to western Montana
axis at 00Z Thursday slowly shifts to a northern Old Mexico to
Wyoming axis by Thanksgiving weekend. In addition, varying degrees
of eastern Colorado lee-side surface troughing will help enhance
warming(primarily over eastern sections) during the longer term.

At this time, the highest potential of more widespread gusty winds
are anticipated from Sunday evening into next Monday, which will
be capable of producing localized elevated fire weather concerns
at times.

Regarding temperatures, well above seasonal temperatures are
anticipated during the longer term with maximum and minimum
temperatures running some 15F to 25+F degrees above later
November climatological averages(especially over eastern sections
of the forecast district). The warmest temperatures during the
longer term should be realized from Wednesday into Monday with
maximum temperatures challenging or exceeding 70F at times over
many eastern locations.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 358 AM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

IFR to LIFR conditions will continue across the central mountains
(mainly north of Highway 50) through mid afternoon with -SHSN and
high elevation BLSN possible before snow diminishes through late
afternoon. Otherwise...TAF sites will remain VFR...though KCOS could
see a VCSH with VFR Cigs for at time this morning.  Winds will
increase at all three terminals with gusts to around 20-25 kts at
both KCOS and KPUB by late morning.  Winds are expected to be a bit
lighter at KALS though could still see sustained winds around 10-15
kts by afternoon. Precipitation will decrease from northwest to
southeast during the afternoon with clearing skies into the evening
and light winds. -KT





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