Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1052 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

...gusty winds on east slopes tonight...


Light snow across Pueblo and El Paso counties continued to decrease
at 3 am. Low clouds were still noted over most of the plains. Temps
across the lower elevations ranged from the upper teens across
northern El Paso county to 30F along the CO/NM border. 20s were
noted in the valleys with teens and single digits in the mtns.


Some snow showers may linger across the plains around sunrise but
expect the precip to end shortly thereafter. Main concern will be
how long will the low clouds hang around. Based on latest hi-res
guidance low cigs may linger until late morning across most of the
lower elevations.

Temps today will be noticeably cooler than yesterdays as highs will
only be in the 40s most of the plains. Valleys will also see 40s
with 20s mainly in the mtns.

A few snow showers will be possible in the c mtns, mainly north of
Cottonwood Pass, by late afternoon.


Besides a few snow showers in the c mtns north of Cottonwood Pass,
it should be dry across the region. Seasonably cold temperatures are
anticipated with lows in the 20s across the plains and teens and
single digits in the mtns and valleys.

Winds will be picking up in the mtns tonight. Gusts to 50 mph to 60
mph will be likely. Soundings are hinting at a mtn wave setting up
across the eastern slopes so will have to keep an eye on this area
in later updates. At this time it doesn`t appear the strongest winds
will reach down to the plains...but slopes will be quite gusty.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

There continues to be a lot of uncertainty for the latter half of
the extended period. Ensembles show plenty of spread out that far
as well, leading to higher uncertainty.

Saturday and Sunday...flow aloft is forecast to turn westerly and
increase through the weekend. Expect dry conditions to prevail
through the weekend. As far as winds, locations along the higher
elevations, down into the lee slopes will likely see winds. Winds
in the 30 to 40 mph range are expected Sunday morning. Winds look
even more favorable for high winds into Monday morning, with gusts
to 50 to 65 mph possible, especially in the lee of the southern
Sangre de Cristo range. These winds will need to be monitored. In
addition, both Saturday and Sunday will need to be watched for
increased fire weather conditions. Temperatures will range from
the 50s to 60s across the Plains on Saturday, and then into the
60s and 70s for Sunday.

Monday into Tuesday...flow aloft will transition to southwesterly
with a several disturbances dropping ejecting northeast across the
region. Persistent moisture will likely lead to near continuous
snowfall across mountains, especially over the San Juan Range.
Further north, less favorable orographic flow will lead to lighter
snow amounts. There may be a few showers across the Plains,
generally over the Palmer Divide. Snow amounts will be minor over
the Plains. Temperatures will be cooler with 50s on Monday,
falling into the 30s on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...there is much less certainty heading
into the latter half of the extended period. The GFS has come in
much drier as we move through the end of the week. The ECMWF has
also come in drier through the extended period, but the overall
pattern is much different. Temperatures look to moderate through
the end of the week, with 50s across the region.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1041 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Clouds will be slow to break due to upslope flow at the KCOS
airport with IFR conditions expected to continue until 21-22z.
MVFR Cigs will continue to dissipate at KPUB through 19z. VFR
conditions expected thereafter with south to southeast winds 10-15
kts expected today. Winds will increase across the mountains late
tonight however any local LLWS will remain well west of both KCOS
and KPUB. -KT




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