Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 260453
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
953 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

MAIN COLD FRONT VISIBLE IN RADAR LOOPS PUSHING THROUGH THE DENVER
URBAN CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH DENVER AT THIS TIME. SNOW BURST ALONG
FRONT. WILL SEE WHAT THIS DOES WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH EL PASO
COUNTY IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. HI RESOLUTION MODELS NOT DOING MUCH
WITH IT BUT NOT SO SURE IF THEY ARE AWARE OF THE DEFINITIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SEEMS APPARENT IN RADAR LOOPS/SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. WOULD SUSPECT ANOTHER BURST OF SNOW ACROSS EL PASO
COUNTY NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL MOVING THROUGH PUEBLO AND FREMONT
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. 1/2 INCH HERE AT THE AIRPORT...WITH 2
INCHES REPORTED FROM ONE OF OUR METS IN PUEBLO WEST ABOUT 630.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AFTER THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE
BURST...WE SHOULD SETTLE INTO A LIGHTER...STEADIER...FLUFFIER SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HEAVIER SNOW RIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAIN
UPPER WAVE HAS YET TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS STILL
BACK ALONG A LINE FROM GRAND JUNCTION TO LEADVILLE TO DENVER...DROPPING
SOUTHEAST. WHEN IT DROPS THROUGH...THIS SHOULD BRING THE MAIN PUSH
OF COLD AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST SLOPES AND PLAINS. IT SHOULD
ALSO TURN WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
TO EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY. AS THIS OCCURS...WOULD EXPECT
A STEADIER...LIGHTER...FLUFFIER SNOW TO DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG AND
NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...LASTING PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW WILL LIKELY
DECREASE...BUT ACCUMULATION MAY STILL OCCUR DUE TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES/BETTER WATER TO SNOW RATIOS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

...NEXT ROUND OF SNOW COMING THROUGH...

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO HIGHWAY 50...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  RADAR IS STARTING TO
LIGHT UP.  OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW SNOW OVER THE RAMPART
RANGE...MONUMENT HILL AND DEVELOPING ALONG THE WET MOUNTAINS...WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY ARE SEEING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE BACKING WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.  COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE.  MODELS RAPIDLY DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SECONDARY SURGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INCLUDING THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN BELOW 5 THOUSAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW BY SUN DOWN. MODELS
HAVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING FROM SUN DOWN THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WHEN LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE MAXIMIZED. SNOW RATES COULD BE
QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WET MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK.

THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENING BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TO COME TO AN END WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS BY MORNING.  AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS...UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK AREA...4 TO 8
INCHES FOR THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...AND 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

THURSDAY...EXPECT A COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.  AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING...AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES
SOUTH AND THE NEXT WAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA.  AS THIS SECONDARY WAVE STRENGTHENS...LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT SNOW WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAIN RANGES ALONG WITH PIKES PEAK.  THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

...WINTER CONTINUES...

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A MULTITUDE OF SHORT WAVES CRESTING THE RIDGE
THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN US. RIDGE POSITION WILL
ALSO ENSURE A CONTINUED SUPPLY OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IS DELIVERED TO
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEGINNING WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OVER
NM/AZ. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE OR
STRENGTHEN ONGOING SNOWFALL OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE MAIN AREA OF UPWARD MOTION SHIFTS TOWARD KS 09Z-
12Z. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...WHILE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 12Z FARTHER SOUTH OVER
THE WETS/SANGRES/SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR. REMAINDER OF THE
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TOO LIGHT FOR HIGHLIGHTS THESE
AREAS FOR NOW.

ON FRIDAY...PERHAPS A BRIEF LULL IN SNOWFALL AS AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN UPPER WAVES...THOUGH CONTINUED SHALLOW UPSLOPE OVER THE
EAST AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALLOW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING AREA-
WIDE WITH LIMITED SUN AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER. FRIDAY
NIGHT...NEXT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. PATTERN IS STRONGLY
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE EASTERN SAN JUANS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET LIKELY BY SAT EVENING AS
700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 30 KTS. WILL LIKELY NEED A MULTIPLE DAY
WINTER HIGHLIGHT FOR MOST SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN ZONES BEGINNING FRI
NIGHT...THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW IN ORDER TO LET
CURRENT SYSTEM GET OUT OF THE PICTURE. FARTHER EAST...LIGHTER
SNOWS LIKELY MOST MOUNTAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...HEAVIEST
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW...EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND PLAINS MAY ONLY SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
SAT...WITH EVEN SOME HINTS AT COLD AIR ERODING ALONG THE RATON
MESA FOR A TIME SAT AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO LOOKS LIKELY OVER
THE SAN JUANS AS SNOW NEVER REALLY LETS UP. RENEWED SURGE OF
COLDER AIR SAT NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WILL AGAIN TURN WINDS TO A
MORE UPSLOPE DIRECTION...LIKELY INCREASING SNOW CHANCE FROM LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.

MON-WED...ONLY A BRIEF LET-UP IN THE SNOW ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MON BEFORE NEW UPPER ENERGY DROPS INTO THE DEEPENING
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH TUE/WED. SUSPECT SAN JUANS WILL SEE STORM
TOTALS 4-6 FEET BY THE TIME LAST WAVE KICKS EAST WED...WITH AREAS
FARTHER NORTH (LA GARITA/SAWATCH RANGES) SEEING AT LEAST 1-2
FEET. SANGRES...ESPECIALLY WEST FACING SLOPES...WILL LIKELY SEE
HEAVY SNOW IN THE MON-WED PERIOD AS WELL...THOUGH AMOUNTS HERE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FARTHER WEST. OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND PLAINS...INITIAL WAVE EJECTING MON MAY NOT
PRODUCE MUCH SNOW AS FLOW KEEPS A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY
COMPONENT...BUT FINAL WAVE TUE/WED LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO TURN
WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL ONCE AGAIN.
MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLDEST ARCTIC
AIR SHIFTS EAST...THOUGH MAXES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

KALS...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINAL WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS. AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
LIKELY LINGER IN AND AROUND THE TERMINAL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KCOS...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TERMINAL WITH BREEZY NORTH
WINDS.  SNOW HAS BEGUN TO QUICKLY FILL IN WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VIS.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN THE 01-03Z TIME
PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS.

KPUB...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TERMINAL WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO ALL NOW BY 02Z. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM 02Z-04Z. LIGHT SNOW WILL PREVAIL
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON AREA RUNWAYS. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-087-088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ081>086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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