Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 182224
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

...Near Critical Fire Weather Conditions over Parts of the Area
Friday...

Upper ridge over Colorado will gradually weaken tonight and Friday,
allowing increasing southwesterly flow over the region.  This will
bring increasing fire danger on Friday.  West to southwest winds
will begin to increase in the high country late tonight with gusts
to 40 mph possible in the mountains by Friday afternoon.  Gusts to
around 30 mph will become possible along and near the east slopes of
the mountains Friday afternoon.  These winds, in combination with
low relative humidities dropping below 15 percent, will elevate the
fire danger for areas along and near the mountains Friday afternoon.
After running the fire weather hazard checker, the areal coverage
and the duration of the event looks too low to warrant fire weather
highlights.  Regardless, there will be some local concerns for brief
periods tomorrow.  It is advisable to postpone outdoor burning or
any other activities that could accidentally start a wildfire.

Friday will be a really mild day across southern Colorado for mid
January.  Temperatures will be 20-25 degrees above average and
challenging records in many areas.  The normal, record and forecast
for Springs tomorrow is 43, 70(1986) and 67, respectively.  For
Pueblo, those numbers are 47, 75(1986) and 71.  For Alamosa, those
numbers are 34, 56(2000) and 53.  So, all 3 sites will be close.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Friday night through Sunday...Latest model runs continue to show
southwest flow aloft increasing Fri night ahead of the next incoming
system. This will help keep temps from bottoming out too much Fri
night, with lows in the 20s to mid 30s for the plains, and teens and
20s for the high valleys. As the upper low pressure system continues
moving east, pcpn is forecast to break out along the Continental
Divide Sat morning, then gradually sweep east across Colorado, with
showers then developing over the eastern plains Sat night as a sfc
cold front pushes south. Sat will be a very warm day with highs
expected to climb into the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to near
70F for the plains, and spotty near-critical fire weather conditions
for the plains will once again be a concern.

The upper low pressure trough axis crosses the state Sun, and all
areas across the eastern plains should see some pcpn though actual
amounts are still a question. The system will cross the eastern
border and move into KS Sun night, and pcpn is forecast to come to
an end for most areas overnight into early Mon morning. As for
temps, Sun will be a very cold day with highs dropping 20 to 30
degrees from the previous day depending on the location. Expect max
temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s for most locations, with the
southeast corner of the state possibly warming to near 40F.

Monday through Thursday...Moderating west to northwest flow aloft
across the region, with another upper low pressure system digging
across the West Coast by Thu. Expect isolated snow showers over the
central mts through Thu, with a dry day on Wed when the upper flow
becomes more westerly. Temps each day will stay on the cool side
with highs in the 40s for the high valleys, and 40s to around 50F
for the eastern plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 324 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Upper ridge over Colorado will weaken tonight and Friday, allowing
southwest flow to increase over the region.  The flow will be mild
and dry so no low clouds or precipitation are expected.  Increasing
southwest winds will begin in the high country late tonight,
spreading to the adjacent plains by Friday afternoon.  Gusts to 40
mph will be possible in the higher terrain Friday with gusts to
around 30 mph possible across the adjacent lower elevations.  VFR
all areas next 24 hours, including the KCOS, KPUB and KALS
terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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