Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 030446
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1046 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CURRENTLY...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION. ONLY CLOUDS ARE A FEW CIRRUS
RACING OVERHEAD AND A FEW Q DOWN IN SE LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AS OF 130
PM. WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AS TEMPS WERE APPROACHING 90
ACROSS MANY SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS.

INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...

MAIN WX CONCERN WILL BE SOME ISOLD TSRA THAT ARE LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE Q WERE DEVELOPING ALREADY
OVER FAR SE LAS ANIMAS AS OF 130. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE STATE OF CO BY EARLY EVENING. ONE OR TWO OTHER
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF THE FAR SE PLAINS BETWEEN NOW AND
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...

MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
PALMER DVD BY SUNRISE.

TOMORROW...

OVERALL...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE NM BORDER BY
LATE MORNING AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS UPSLOPE WILL BE SHALLOW. THE DEEP MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE WITH A 2NDRY FRONT THAT...FOR THE MOST
PART...WILL REMAIN N OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.
LIKEWISE...I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TO HAPPEN IN OUR CWA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SE COLO PLAINS
DURING THE DAY...BUT BELIEVE CAP WILL HOLD. SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN
ALL THE INCREDIBLE INSTABILITY OVER THE PALMER DVD AND NORTHWARD...MOST
GUIDANCE DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS N EL
PASO...N OTERO AND N KIOWA COUNTIES FOR LATE IN THE DAY. IF STORMS
DO INITIATE...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...NAM GUIDANCE HAS OVER 3500 J/KG OVER
NE KIOWA COUNTY AT 00Z TOMORROW.

I NEED TO MAKE CLEAR THAT IF THE 2NDRY FRONT DOES SURGE SOUTHWARD
FARTHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES...THEN WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT ROTATING CONVECTION TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE WED EVENING WILL PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NM BORDER BY EARLY THU
MORNING. TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS
60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PUSH WESTWARD INTO CO...WITH NAM CAPES OF
3-4K J/KG NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WED EVENING. HARD TO FIND
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...WITH MOST TERRAIN FORCED TSRA
DEVELOPING FAIRLY FAR NORTH ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN THE
EVENING. NAM DOES HINT AS SOME TSRA FORMING ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE LATE WED NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP TSRA MENTION IN PLACE FOR
EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND MOST PLAINS ZONES OVERNIGHT WED...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR (0-6KM AROUND 40 KTS)

ON THU...FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NM BORDER EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST MODELS WAITING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION UNTIL THU EVENING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.
HUNCH IS BOUNDARY WILL STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WED NIGHT MAY GIVE THE FRONT A BIGGER
SOUTHWARD SHOVE THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE BIG CAPE (2-3K J/KG) ONCE
AGAIN...THOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS A LITTLE MARGINAL IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE. OVERALL...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED POPS FOR ALL THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...AND WAIT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN
36-48 HR RANGE TO BETTER REFINE BOTH SEVERE THREAT AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LOW
PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHEARING
NORTHEAST LATE SUN/MON. STILL SOME THREAT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...THOUGH 12Z MODELS AREN`T
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY MOVING THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA
NORTHWARD. STILL SOME QUESTION REGARDING POSITION OF COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON THE PLAINS AS WELL...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
FRONT DRIFTING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OVERALL...THOUGH 12Z ECMWF WAS A REASONABLE
SOLUTION...SUGGESTING AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION AREA-WIDE
FRI...THEN AGAIN SUN/MON AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND UPSLOPE
STRENGTHENS. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SLOPES IF HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
PLAINS CAN BE PUSHED WESTWARD BY MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. FORECAST IS RATHER BROAD BRUSHED WITH LOW TO MODERATE POPS
THROUGH TUE...WHICH LOOKS OK FOR NOW. TEMPS THU THROUGH TUE WILL
DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON CONVECTION...BUT WILL MOSTLY STAY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREE OF EARLY JUNE AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY TO THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AREA BY 06Z. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM LOOKS VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



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