Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPUB 012206
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

CURRENTLY...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WAS KEEPING A PESKY AREA OF STRATUS IN
PLACE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ONLY PRECIP
OF NOTE WAS A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. CLOUDS
AND CONTINUED WEAK COLD ADVECTION HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE 30S OR COLDER AREA-WIDE.

TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE REGION BY EARLY MON
MORNING...AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST CIRRUS SHIELD DROPS SOUTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD
COVER...AND WITH DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL
OFF EARLY...THEN GO STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW TOWARD SUNRISE MON...THOUGH ANY
PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MOSTLY FLURRIES.

MONDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD TOWARD THE
SURFACE DURING THE DAY...LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AREA-
WIDE AS MOST LOCATIONS MIX NICELY BY AFTERNOON. DIDN`T GO QUITE AS
WARM AS SOME BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AS PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD
COVER MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGF OFF POTENTIAL MAXES. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THOUGH AGAIN ACCUMS LOOK
FAIRLY MINOR AND LIMITED TO FAVORED NW FACING SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND FOLLOW THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON WEST FACING
SLOPES. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM NICELY WITH AT LEAST MID 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY. A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR
SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE A COLD FRONT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MID DAY...WHILE THE NAM IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER. PREFERRED THE FASTER SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT BACKING
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 18Z WED. THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH AREAS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS REACHING THE 50S BEFORE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...WHILE AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID 30S. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER COMING IN...TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION...SNOW WILL PICK UP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FURTHER EAST...WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
KANSAS...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF OUR AREA WILL MISS OUT. HAVE LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES...AREAS THAT
SEE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN...AND CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. MODELS QUICKLY MOVE ALL
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 50S ON THURSDAY AND
APPROACHING 70 BY SATURDAY FOR THE PLAINS.

MODELS DROP ANOTHER GLANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BRING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN
SNOWFALL FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

AT KALS...VFR TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. STILL A THREAT OF
IFR/LIFR GROUND FOG ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND NEAR THE TERMINAL MON
MORNING...BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD...EXPECT FOG
TO BE RATHER PATCHY AND WON`T INCLUDE IN THE TAF YET.

AT KCOS...PATCHY MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE 03Z-06Z AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW FLOW BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ONCE STRATUS DISSIPATES...EXPECT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BKN-OVC.

AT KPUB...LOW VFR STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.