Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 280543
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENTLY...GENERAL W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LURKING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
COLORADO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING GREATLY HINDERED TEMPS FOR
MUCH OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD...WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-25
WARMED QUICKLY. ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVED ON...TEMPS JUMPED UP INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS FAVORABLE WIND
GAPS...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REFLECT A WARM BELT
IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. FOR FRIDAY...INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SLOW TEMPS AT FIRST FOR SOME AREAS...BUT WESTERLY
WINDS AND CLOUD BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE E PLAINS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

...VERY WARM AND WINDY SAT THEN FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATER
SUN...

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THIS WEEKEND...THE WX WILL BE
ACTIVE BOTH SAT AND SUN. A STRONG JET WILL BE OVER THE REGION DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW IT TO BE WINDY TO VERY WINDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 48H PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20-40G50 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND 15 TO 30 MPH IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL LIKELY GET WINDY OVER THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH G30 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY.

IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLAINS
WITH 60S IN EL PASO COUNTY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUITE WARM IN
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS FRI NITE AND SAT NITE.

ON SUNDAY...A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. AS TYPICAL...WITH
STRONG DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSING...TRYING TO FIGURE WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IS DIFFICULT. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM START TO THE
DAY ALL AREAS SO EXPECT WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM PUEBLO
DOWN TO THE NM BORDER AND 60S EXTENDING OUT TO BACA COUNTY. OVER EL
PASO COUNTY AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE COOL FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH EARLIER AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH HIGHS MAXING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT SO NO PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS SUN
NITE...AND WE MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED...MAINLY OVER
THE MTNS. A TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION BY
MID WEEK. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER CANADIAN COOL
FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. WHAT THIS ALL
MEANS IS WE WILL SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE CONTDVD
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE MTNS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED. WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE WINDY PERIODS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

I SHOULD MENTION THAT THERE REALLY IS NOT TOO MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT A
BIT UNSETTLED...ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT UNSETTLED. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE THREE TAF
SITES. THE MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE STRENGTHENING W WINDS
ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MDT TB ALONG AND E OF THE CREST OF THE
WETS...SANGRES AND RAMPART RANGE TODAY. WINDS AT RIDGE TOP WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND TB COULD BE SVR AS MTN WAVE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AN EVEN STRONGER MT WAVE
EVENT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



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