000
FXUS65 KPUB 210943
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

...NICE START TO THE WORK WEEK...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CHANCES OF CONVECTION. FORCING
OF THIS WEEKEND HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST...SO UPPER FORCING WILL BE
WEAK TODAY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE 40S OVER THE PLAINS...BUT 30S AND 20S OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TREND IS FOR DRYING TO CONTINUE. MODELS
HAVE OVERDONE QPF OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND EXPECT THAT
BIAS TO CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MESOSCALE AND HI-RES MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE A ROUND OF ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY EVE.
THE MAIN TRIGGER WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT CAN BE
SEEN IN WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING INTO WRN CO THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
THIS WAVE WILL LARGELY BE THROUGH OUR AREA FROM 18-21Z...SO COULD
SEE THE PEAK IN CONVECTION OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER
OFF GRADUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVE. THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE ERN MTS...AND THE
SRN PART OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE SPANISH PEAKS AREA...RATON MESA
AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...AND POSSIBLY SRN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. CAPE LOOKS MEAGER...AND LTG WILL PROBABLY BE SCARCE
TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR
FORECAST CONTINUITY AND FOR ISOLD CHANCES.

IN COMPARISON...TEMPS WILL BE EASY TODAY...WITH HIGHS JUST OFF OR NR
WHAT THE HIGHS WERE YESTERDAY. SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL BE
PARTIALLY COMPENSATED FOR BY FEWER CLOUDS OVERALL. SHOULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S PLAINS AND 50S-60S FOR THE HIGHER TRRN.
OVERALL...A REALLY NICE SPRING DAY. WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 09Z...
COULD START TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW MTS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. INTRODUCED LOW POPS OVER THE SAN JUANS FOR THIS
SCENARIO. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST OUT OF COLORADO ON
TUE...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LOOK FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS TUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...AS WELL AS INCREASING W-SW SURFACE WINDS. HELD OFF ON ANY FIRE
WX HIGHLIGHT SINCE HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN...THEN POSSIBLY
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WED...WITH STRONG WINDS A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE. ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY ON TAP AHEAD OF AN EVENING COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AND WITH
LOWERING DEWPOINTS...THIS LOOKS TO BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF
THE SE PLAINS FOR THE AFTN AND EVE. GFS SHOWS THE SFC COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW PRES TROUGH EXITS TO THE
EAST...THU SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT BREEZY BORDERING ON WINDY
DAY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH
LEVELS ON THU SHOULD PREVENT ANY SORT OF FIRE WX HIGHLIGHT. DRY ON
THU...AS WELL AS FOR MUCH OF FRI AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
ACROSS. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MTS FOR FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS PAINT A VERY UNSETTLED
PICTURE NOW FOR THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN HOW
IT LOOKED YESTERDAY. THE GFS BRINGS A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SW EARLY SAT...THEN EJECTS IT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ON SUN. THE
EC...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS A 6-12 HR SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH. FOR THE TIME BEING...BLANKETED THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS BOTH DAYS WITH COOLER TEMPS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE WEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS. ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE MTS AND
SURROUNDING TRRN THROUGH EARLY EVE TODAY. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE