000
FXUS65 KPUB 281133
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
433 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENTLY...RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS(WOLF CREEK PASS) AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND EVEN ISOLATED REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY EARLY MORNING CLIMATOLOGICAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS COMMONPLACE.

RECENT PV ANALYSIS...REAL-TIME DATA AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT PRIMARY FOCUS OF HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS(EASTERN SAN JUANS)...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING(HEAVY AT TIMES) OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

PROJECTED ADDITIONAL 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z TODAY TO 12Z SUNDAY OF 12 TO 24 INCHES
ANTICIPATED...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND 12 INCHES
ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP EXISTING WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW(PER HRRR...WRF...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES OVER MANY
LOCATIONS INTO TONIGHT.

FINALLY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW LATE FEBRUARY
AND EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS)WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 20S OVER EASTERN
LOCATIONS TODAY...WHILE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN PROJECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ON SUN AND UPR TROF WL LIE FROM NV...SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE SRN CA
COAST.  THIS WL RESULT IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MSTR CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE CONTDVD...ALLOWING HEAVY
SNOW TO CONTINUE OVR THE SW CO MTNS.  SUN MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN ACRS THE SERN PLAINS...I-25 CORRIDOR AND OVR
TELLER COUNTY...AND JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS
AND CENTRAL MTNS.  SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SPREAD ACRS TELLER COUNTY AND PIKES
PEAK.  LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE ERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WL HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN
MTNS.  THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD JUST SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MTNS
SEEING SEVERAL INCHES.  THE EASTERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS WL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SNOW WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION.

BY MON MORNING THE PCPN OVR THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY
WITH ISOLD TO SCT COVERAGE. SNOW OVR THE ERN MTNS SHOULD BE LETTING
UP AS WELL...BUT SNOW OVR THE CONTDVD WL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE.  BY
MON AFTERNOON PCPN WL MOSTLY HAVE ENDED OVR THE SERN PLAINS AND ERN
MTNS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND
SAN LUIS VALLEY MON AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER WL LIMIT THE
WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.

MON NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVING S FROM CANADA MOVES INTO WRN CO AND
THEN AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVR THE STATE THRU
WED...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.  MON NIGHT...W TO SW FLOW ACRS
THE SERN PLAINS KEEPS THE AREA DRY...WHILE SNOW CONTINUES OVR THE
MTNS.  TUE MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND
OVR NRN TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THOSE
AREAS BEFORE NOON TUE.  THEN IN THE AFTERNOON PCPN ALSO SPREADS
SOUTH OVR ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SOME OF
THE PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...BUT COLD AIR WL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND PCPN SHOULD THEN SWITCH OVR TO
SNOW.  THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS WL ALSO SEE SNOW ON TUE...BUT
AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT. ON WED IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL JUST BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
TEMPS WL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MOSTLY IN THE
20S.   THERE ARE ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE UPR TROF...AND IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
WL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING...WITH PCPN THEN ENDING.  DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE 40S ON THU AND MAYBE INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOME

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS OF FOG AND SNOW AT TIMES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO BE NOTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ060-066>068-
073-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ064-065-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ059.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ058-061.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77