Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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571
FXUS65 KPUB 230200
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
800 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Updated forecast to remove pops along the KS/CO border for the
rest of the night. Thunderstorm activity remaining east of the
area. Also updated winds and temperatures to reflect current
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

...Severe weather along and near the southeast Colorado border late
this afternoon into the evening...

Supercell thunderstorms will likely develop along and near a dryline
adjacent to the southeast Colorado border late this afternoon. A few
isolated supercells will be possible right along the border areas.
Among the threats from any supercells that develop will be hail over
an inch in diameter, wind gusts over 60 mph, tornadoes, lightning
and locally heavy rain.

The most likely area for development in southeast Colorado will be
over eastern Baca County and then possibly north across eastern
Prowers and eastern Kiowa Counties.  High resolution model runs
throughout the day have been repeatedly hitting these areas as
initiation points.  Although, they have been gradually nudging the
very first cells slightly farther east with each passing run.  The
high resolution models have the first cells going up close to 4 pm
MDT.

Otherwise, not a whole lot to talk about through tonight.  Rest of
forecast area should remain dry and mild.  There is a shortwave
approaching from the northwest that could threaten a shower or storm
over the central mountains this evening.  However, it probably won`t
be very successful producing any precipitation given dewpoints that
are in the teens up that way.

For Monday, a weak boundary will move south into the plains.  For
the plains, this should cool things a bit and possibly act as a
trigger for some isolated afternoon convection.  In addition, the
central mountain areas, along the Continental Divide, will see a
chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as shortwave energy
moves through that region.  Elsewhere, another dry and warm day
pretty similar to today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

A relatively tame meteorological pattern is anticipated during
the longer term with highest potential of widespread precipitation
expected from Thursday into Friday night as next system impacts
the forecast district. At this time, primary longer term
meteorological issues appear to be pops, temperatures and gusty
winds at times.

Initially, a basically dry southwesterly upper flow pattern in
combination with varying degrees of eastern Colorado lee-side
troughing/surface lows should be noted over the CWA from Monday
night into Wednesday night with isolated primarily afternoon and
evening higher terrain showers and thunderstorms anticipated
during this time-frame.

Meteorological conditions then become more active in the form of
increased shower and thunderstorm activity and cooler temperatures
from Thursday into Friday night as combination of relatively
moist north-northeasterly surface surges interacts with a closed
upper low initially located over northern Arizona at 06Z Thursday
which shifts into the 4-Corners region by Thursday morning and
then moves across southern Colorado by Friday morning before
shifting east of the forecast district by later Friday.

Then, a return to drier and warmer meteorological conditions(although
generally isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible) are projected over the majority of the forecast district
by next weekend as zonal to southwesterly upper flow returns to
southern Colorado.

Finally, the highest potential for gusty gradient winds are
expected from Monday night into Tuesday night and then again by
later Thursday while warmest conditions during the longer term
should be experienced from Tuesday into Wednesday and then again
by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry southwest flow will result in VFR over most of the flight area
for most of the forecast period. The far eastern plains, along the
eastern border, may see exception to this for a brief period late
this afternoon into the evening as storms fire along a dryline in
this vicinity. Pilots may have to navigate dryline storms in this
area...generally 22z-02z. KCOS...KPUB and KALS TAF sites should
remain VFR next 24 hours.


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Stark



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