Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

The pattern becomes more active towards the latter half of the short
term as showers return to the mountains from a series of shortwaves
ejecting out ahead of the closed low currently off the coast of CA.
The first wave back across CA/southern NV will lift northeastward
clipping through western CO tonight with brunt of the energy
remaining to the northwest of the CWA.  Still a marginal increase in
moisture should produce at least scattered showers with up to an
inch or two of snowfall across the higher elevations along the
Continental Divide late this afternoon through tonight.
Meanwhile...southeast plains will stay dry.  Will see a cooler day
for all areas as the upper trof axis between northern stream system
across the northern U.S rockies and southern stream closed low over
TX/eastern NM translates eastward across the area bringing cooler
temperatures aloft and a weak front through the southeast plains
this morning. Temperatures will still be above normal this afternoon
though...with readings in the 60s across the plains. Mountains and
snow covered valleys will remain closer to normal today...though
starting to see some recovery in the San Luis valley where snowmelt
is finally starting to decrease the snow pack. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

Saturday-Saturday night...Latest models remain in good agreement
of increasing southerly flow aloft across the region on Saturday,
with a minor short wave ejecting across western Colorado as the main
upper trough digs into the Great Basin through the Desert SW. Minor
wave to bring isolated to scattered showers to mainly the higher
terrain along and west of the ContDvd Saturday afternoon and
evening, with local snow accumulations of a few inches possible over
the highest peaks. Otherwise, generally dry weather with breezy
southerly winds helping to keep temperatures at or above seasonal
levels with highs in the 60s across the lower elevations, 40s and
50s across the higher terrain and 20 and 30s at the peaks.

Sunday-Monday...Models in remarkably good agreement through this
period, as negatively tilted upper trough lifts out across the state
through the day Sunday, with short wave ridging building across the
region through the day Monday, ahead of another Eastern Pacific
system moving onshore across the West Coast. With that said, will
see increasing coverage of snow showers across the ContDvd through
the day Sunday, with showers spreading east across the high mountain
valleys through the eastern mountains and plains Sunday afternoon
and evening. Showers to diminish Sunday night with clearing skies
expected through the day Monday.

The progressive and relatively warm system will keep snow
accumulations generally light, though could see low end advisory
totals of 4 to 8 inches across the higher peaks of the southwest and
central mountains by early Monday morning. With the southerly flow,
models indicating increasing low level moisture across the southeast
plains Sunday afternoon, with the best low level moisture expected
to be south and east of the area. However, with the negatively
tilted nature of the passing system, there could be more moisture
advection than currently suggested, leading to possibility of a few
thunderstorms across the far eastern plains Sunday afternoon.

Again, models do not indicate much in the way of cold air associated
with the passing system, keeping temperatures at and above seasonal
levels, with the warmest reading across the southeast plains.

Tuesday-Friday...Warm and breezy weather expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday as short wave ridging flattens across the state as next
EPAC system digs into the Great Basin. Again, longer range models in
remarkable agreement of this system lifting out across northwestern
Colorado Thursday and closing off across the northern High Plains on
Friday. This will bring another shot of snow to the higher terrain,
especially along the ContDvd, Wednesday night and Thursday, with
generally dry and windy weather expected across the southeast
plains. Thursday could be a high fire danger day across eastern
Colorado, if current models remain true. Time will tell.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 355 AM MST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions expected at the terminals though bouts of high
cloudiness can be expected throughout today.  Weak front will
continue to move through the plains bringing some north winds around
10-15 kts to KCOS and KPUB...though winds will decrease and shift
out of the east to southeast in the afternoon before going light
overnight.  KALS will see light winds with speeds under 10 kts. -KT




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