Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 280520
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

...FREEZING WEATHER TONIGHT FOR THE PLAINS...

CURRENTLY...50S AND A FEW 60S OUT OVR THE ERN PLAINS...WHILE THE MTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 30S-40S. SO...A NICE BUT BRISK FALL DAY. BANDED
LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ALOFT IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH ELBERT AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO OUR
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
TO JUSTIFY LOW POPS OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE LOWER ARKANSAS
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER 03-05Z THIS EVE.

WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND WINDS RELAXING...A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
APPEARS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND WINDS COULD INTERFERE WITH
THE FREEZE UNTIL EARLY TUE MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONVERT
OUR WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING. SOME SPOTS MAY BE A BIT BORDERLINE
WITH TUE MORNING LOW TEMPS FORECAST AROUND FREEZING...BUT THERE
WILL BE COLDER POCKETS IN LOW LYING AREAS. A HARD FREEZE COULD
ALSO OCCUR IN THOSE COLDER SPOTS...MAINLY IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY.

TOMORROW LOOKS VERY UNEVENTFUL...AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS OVER OUR AREA.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RECOVERING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND A COLD
START TOT HE MORNING...SO WILL PROBABLY ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS NR 60 DEGREES BY AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT FALL DAY. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVR THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED.  EARLY WED MORNING THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.
WED NIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING TO ALONG THE WRN CO BORDER BY THU EVENING.
THIS WL KEEP THE WX DRY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THU
MORNING...AS AN UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE NW INTO THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATE...A COLD FRONT WL DROP INTO THE SERN CO PLAINS.
ON WED...HIGH TEMPS WL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...WITH AROUND AVERAGE READINGS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  THEN
ON THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPS OVR THE PLAINS WL
DROP BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE.   ON FRI THE UPR RIDGE AXIS WL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACRS THE STATE...MOVING EAST OF THE STATE FRI
NIGHT.  DRY WX WL CONTINUE FOR FRI AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO COME THIS WEEKEND...WHEN
AN UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT.  PCPN WL PROBABLY SPREAD
INTO THE CONTDVD BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON...AND S TO SW WINDS WL
INCREASE.  SAT NIGHT...THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO ERN MT...WITH THE TRAILING TROF BACK OVR UT AND WRN CO.  THERE
AREA SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPR LOW/TROF POSITION BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS...BUT IT IS STILL FAIRLY FAR OUT TIME-WISE.  THE
GFS HAS A TRAILING PIECE OF ENERGY THAT DROPS INTO UT AND CLOSES OFF
ANOTHER LOW BY SUN EVENING.  THE ECMWF ALSO HAS THIS SECONDARY
SYSTEM BUT DOES NOT CLOSE OFF ANOTHER LOW.  EITHER WAY...AN UPR TROF
IS FORECAST TO BE OVR THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON RESULTING IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ085>089-093>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH



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