


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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079 FXUS65 KPUB 110450 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1050 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Damaging winds expected with thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening over the plains. - Cooler with thunderstorms tomorrow, especially late afternoon into evening hours; some strong. - Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected for the long term period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 911 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Update to allow the Red Flag Warning to expire as scheduled. Temperatures have begun to decrease since sunset, which will help to bring relative humidity values up slightly in the next few hours. Winds have also decreased significantly, which is the main reason that the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to expire as scheduled. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Main concern today is potential for damaging winds with thunderstorm activity over the plains, Point soundings showing mixing all the way up to 500 mb and a rather impressive short wave will cross the region this afternoon. This lift combined with a very well mixed BL up ot 500 mb will allow for plenty of DCAPE which will likely produce very strong surface winds over the plains this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts to 60 to 75 mph with gusts potential to 90 mph cant be ruled out. Most of CO Plains outlooked with SPC hatched wind area (>75 mph) over most of plains. Activity should push relatively quickly out of the region by early to mid evening with clearing skies tonight. Red Flag conditions will continue over the mtns/valleys the rest of today into this evening. A cool front will cross the plains late this evening into the early morning hours, brining increasing LLVL moisture to the region. Tomorrow...Thunderstorms will be slow to start tomorrow, with the brunt of the activity expected staring very late tomorrow afternoon and then pushing out onto the plains during the evening hours. Storms tomorrow will have the potential to be on the stronger side once again, but more importantly, will have the potential to bring more beneficial rain to the region given the more favorable moist low level environment. It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow across the region with highs in the 80s and 90s plains. Tomorrow evening a line of storms will move across the plains brining the potential of strong gusty winds, locally heavy rain, marginally severe hail and lightning to the lower elevations. Storms will likely linger into the overnight hours tomorrow. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Friday Night - Wednesday: For the long term period, active is still expected each day, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. Messy westerly to northerly flow will be in place over the region as a ridge of high pressure sits across the southwest US. While no major forcing is expected, orographic forcing will be in place each day, along with a brief period of heightened forcing from a frontal passage late Friday. These forcing mechanisms, along with moisture in place each day, will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to blossom each afternoon and persist into the evening hours. The greatest coverage of showers and storms is expected to remain along the mountains, where forcing will greatest. Like most summer days, a strong thunderstorms or two can`t be ruled out, with frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain the most likely hazards from any stronger storms. Beyond all of that, breezy winds and increased afternoon and evening cloud cover are anticipated through this timeframe. As for temperatures, Saturday is expected to be the coolest day, with below seasonal temperatures anticipated thanks to the aforementioned cold frontal passage late Friday. Then for the rest of the period, near seasonal temperatures return for south central and southeastern Colorado, though there are hints at another possible cold front passage during the end of this period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the rest of overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday afternoon, mainly between 21Z and 00Z at KCOS, and between 23Z and 03Z at KPUB. Brief MVFR visibilities will be possible during heavier thunderstorm activity, along with gusty and erratic wind behavior. At KALS..VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable through the overnight hours, becoming southerly and eventually westerly tomorrow. Brief showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible, mainly between 22Z and 00Z, though the chances are too low (less than 30%) to include in the TAF at this time. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...EHR SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...EHR