Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 071604
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
904 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Updated for cancellation of winter wx advisory. Made some minor
pop changes for today and tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 611 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Updated grids for expiration of Winter Wx Advisory for the central
mountains, and to incorporate latest obs data. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Currently...The upper low system was pulling away from the region,
though brisk westerly flow was continuing across the higher
elevations. At the surface, gusty northerly winds have persisted.
Intermittent bands of snow have occurred across portions of the I-25
corridor this morning, but for much of the lower elevations this has
amounted to a dusting to up to an inch. As of 4 am temps have
dropped into the teens across the plains, and teens to 20s for the
high valleys.

Today and tonight...Northwest flow aloft will remain in place across
the state through the short term. Models indicate that the
heaviest bands of snow will remain mainly to the north of the
forecast area across the northern Colorado, and that the best
chance for significant additional snowfall for the Palmer DVD and
Teller County will occur this morning through about 18z, so
ongoing advisories and the planned expiration times look good.
With the expected continued northerly flow, another embedded
shortwave will push moisture up against the eastern slopes of the
eastern mountains this aftn. Both the NAm and GFS models indicate
this, so upped pops slightly through the evening and kept isolated
pops along the e mts through about midnight. Otherwise, skies
should start clearing by this time and it promises to be a very
cold night for the region tonight. Look for max temps today in the
teens and 20s, which is not much of a departure from current
temps, and expect overnight min temps to be in the single digits
to as low as 15 below for the higher elevations. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

...Active pattern for Continental Divide snow through the
extended...

Thursday will be a dry day for most of southern CO...though
temperatures will remain cold as surface high remains entrenched
across the central plains and low level southeast flow keeps cold
airmass banked up against the southeast mountains. Moisture
increases again along the Continental Divide Thursday night with
snow moving back into the central mountains. Lee trof develops
along the southeast mountains overnight and we should start to see
the cold airmass recede eastward. Low temperatures Thursday night
will be challenging as coldest readings may occur fairly early for
the lower eastern slopes with west winds increasing and
temperatures warming through the night. Friday will start to see
rebounding temperatures with readings returning into the 40s for
the I-25 corridor as westerly winds increase. Suspect there will
be some cold pockets along the lower Arkansas river across the
plains where light southeast winds may limit mixing.

Next system moves through the pacific northwest Friday night and
across the northern U.S. Rockies on Saturday.  Next wave of moisture
assoc with the upper jet spreads into the Continental Divide
Friday night into Saturday with some light to moderate
accumulations of wind driven snow possible. Saturday will be a
windy day for the plains with mild temperatures expected ahead of
the next cold front which moves through during the late afternoon
and evening. Amplitude of the system is still varying between
models and model run cycles...so occasionally models suggest a
brief round of light snow behind the front for the southeast plains...though
06z GFS has backed off on this idea. Will maintain some isolated
pops for now. Front will knock temperatures back down again for
Sunday.

We remain under northwest flow through the early part of next week
with rounds of snow expected to continue for the Continental
Divide and periodic frontal surges through the southeast plains.
So temperatures will trend cooler into the new day 8 with most of
the precipitation confined to the mountains. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 359 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Overall, expect VFR conditions across much of the area for the next
24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Intermittent bands of snow have occurred across the I-25 corridor
this morning, and will continue to do so through about 15z. These
bands produce transient IFR conditions. After a brief lull, light
snow is expected to redevelop over the Pikes Peak region between 18-
20z and gradually migrate to the south along I-25 and the eastern
slopes of the eastern mts. Will maintain vcsh mention in the KCOS
and KPUB TAFs.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE


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