000
FXUS65 KPUB 080511
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1011 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS THE PIKES
PEAK REGION HAVE COME TO AN END...SO CANCELLED THE HILITES IN
THESE REGIONS. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AREAS SW
AND S OF PUEBLO DOWN TO THE NM STATE LINE. /HODANISH

UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WET MTN VALLEY...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
HUERFANO COUNTY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. THIS
DECISION BASED ON CURRENT REPORTS AND SHORT RANGE SIMULATIONS. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SAT...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE SEE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER SOUTHWEST CO THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH PCPN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS EVENING THE PCPN WL
CONTINUE SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH ACRS THE AREA.  THE MTS AND HYR
ELEVATIONS ALREADY HAVE SNOW...AND AS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COOL THIS
EVENING...ANY RAIN WL CHANGE OVR THE SNOW.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WL GENERALLY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER AND
NR THE EASTERN MTNS AND AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE SERN
PLAINS...WHICH IS WHERE THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT.  SOME OF THE MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE
A BIT TOO HIGH...BUT PROBABLY HAS THE GENERAL IDEA OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WL LIKELY OCCUR.  WL USE A BLEND OF THE 12Z AND 18Z
NAM...THE GFS AND RAP FOR SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT.

BY LATE SAT MORNING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...BUT SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OT LINGER OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND MTNS. IN THE MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVR SRN AREAS.  IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MOST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH DECREASED
CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVR THE SW MTS AND THE SRN SANGRES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CUTOFF WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT THAT ONLY SILENT POPS WILL BE NEEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.  WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES REACHING +4C TO +6C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAV AND MEX MAXIMUMS ARE TOO WARM AND
WERE IGNORED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR
LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR WITH SNOW COVER OR WET
SOILS. GIVEN THE WARMER MARCH SUN AND THE WEAK DOWNSLOPE...BELIEVE
ADJUSTMENTS WOULD BE MINOR. AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY...SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD MOVE INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH AS A COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING FROM SUNDAY. ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS ON MONDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NEXT STRONG TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION . AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES COLORADO...THERE COULD BE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN SPEED...LOCATION AND PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...AND THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.
DECIDED NOT TO ALTER GRIDS FROM CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE MUCH AND
ONLY HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM IN THE AFD. IN CURRENT
PACKAGE...INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED CATEGORY ON THE PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY. CURRENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SYSTEM WOULD BE WEAK.
MOST ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ARE DRY WITH A FEW MEMBERS SUGGESTING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GRIDS FOR FRIDAY HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHICH MATCHES THE MAIN
IDEA IN THE ENSEMBLES. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULD SHOW A DECREASING TREND AS TIME GOES
ON. AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE WITH VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ072>075-
078>080-087-088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ094-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-063-066-068-076-077-083-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...HODANISH