000
FXUS65 KPUB 141728
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 440 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Main concerns for today include expected Red Flag conditions and
strong winds, and for tonight the potential for freezing temps over
portions of the southeast plains.

An upper level trof will move across CO today and this evening, then
exiting the state overnight.  The forecast models keep the weather
dry across southeast and south central CO, however they do show some
showers getting close to the higher elevations of Lake county.  For
now, will leave the central mtns dry.  Strong winds are currently
being reported over the high mtn areas and passes, but later this
morning gusty winds will work their way down into the lower
elevations, especially over the I-25 corridor and the high valleys.
Then as the upper trof moves acrs the area, the winds will become
northwest and north, and will be quite strong this afternoon and
evening.  In the mid to late afternoon hours and into the evening,
most of the southeast plains will likely see winds of 30-40 mph with
higher gusts.  The San Luis Valley should see winds at 20-30 mph
with higher gusts.  Some of the mtns areas should see gusts of 50-65
mph thru the day.  It looks like RH values and winds will meet Red
Flag criteria for a long enough period this afternoon over portions
of the southeast plains, so will issue a Warning.  The warning will
include the I-25 corridor from Colo Spgs to the southern CO border,
Crowley, Otero and all of Las Animas counties.  There will likely be
some spotty Red Flag conditions over western Kiowa and Bent counties
but not widespread enough for long enough to warrant a warning at
this time.  It`s difficult to exactly pin down the locations and
timing today given that it depends on the timing of the front moving
thru the plains.   Conditions still look favorable for Red Flag
conditions in the San Luis Valley as well, so will leave that
warning as is.

There are some model differences with respect to how cold temps will
get tonight, however there is still the potential for the first
widespread freeze across the far southeast plains, and will leave
the Freeze Watch in place. Also, since forecast zone 83 (eastern
Fremont county) hasn`t had a hard freeze yet, and they have the
potential for it to occur tonight, will add them to the Freeze
Watch.  Other areas of the southeast plains have already had a hard
freeze and we are no longer issuing freeze products for those
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Outside of freezing lower elevation temperatures Sunday morning
and increasing precipitation chances(over western sections and
winds(all locations) by later Friday, expect basically dry and
mild to warm(above mid-October seasonal averages) conditions over
the forecast district from later Sunday into Friday as recent
forecast model soundings, computer simulations and PV/Water Vapor
analysis continue to suggest that the forecast district should
experience generally dry northwesterly to zonal to southwesterly
upper flow in combination with varying degrees of eastern Colorado
lee-side surface troughing from later Sunday into Friday.

Then, from later Friday into at least next weekend(which is just
outside of WFO Pueblo`s current official longer term forecast
window), recent versions of GFS and especially the ECMWF solutions
indicate that a storm system has the potential of impacting the
CWA with unsettled meteorological conditions. As always, WFO
Pueblo will monitor the track and development/strength of this
potential system closely.

Overall, relatively low-grade winds are projected over the
forecast district from Sunday into Friday with increasing winds
then anticipated by later Friday. In regards to temperatures,
project that the warmest maximum temperatures during the longer
term should be realized from Monday into Friday, with coolest
maximum temperatures expected Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A cold front will move across KCOS and KPUB very early in this
forecast period. Winds will become northwest to north and become
quite gusty through the rest of the afternoon. Gusty southwest
winds will occur at KALS early this afternoon gradually veering to
northwest and remaining gusty as the afternoon progresses. It will
remain dry and no significant clouds are expected. Winds will
decrease dramatically this evening and will remain light through
the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for COZ083-
089-093-095>099.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ227>233.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HODANISH