000
FXUS65 KPUB 170540
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

...FIRE WX CONCERNS INCREASING...

CURRENTLY

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION IS ALLOWING FOR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM OVER NE CO. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED OVER THE C MTNS AND THE N SXNS OF THE PIKES
PEAK REGION. A WEAK DRY LINE WAS LOCATED GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM
EADS TO LA JUNTA TO SPRINGFIELD. A LINE OF Q WERE NOTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND A FEW WEAK ECHOES WERE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
AROUND 2 PM.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT IS THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE OUT
EAST. SOME GUIDANCE WAS HINTING AT THIS WHILE OTHERS WERE REMAINING
DRY. MARGINAL CAPE AND SHEAR WERE NOTED OVER THIS REGION AND TD/S
WERE IN THE MID 40S. IF ANYTHING DOES POP BELIEVE SVR THREAT WOULD
BE ON THE LOW END OF THE SCALE WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AS FOR THE WALDO...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR BELIEVE ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE BELOW 0.10 INCHES.

LATER THIS EVENING DOWNWARD VV ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. THE DRYLINE IS
FCST TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST AND EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD IS FIRE WX. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GO
WELL BELOW THE 15% CRITERIA BUT WINDS WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE
(G30 MPH). BEST AREAS THAT WILL SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
SAN JUANS AND THE S MTNS. SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FREMONT COUNTY WILL
ALSO SEE A THREAT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. OVER THE C MTNS...TELLER
COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT THE FUELS IN THESE AREAS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CARRYING FIRE...SO NO RED FLAG WARNING IS
BEING ISSUED FOR THESE REGIONS.

TOMORROW MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR E
COUNTIES...BUT THEY WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE PRONOUNCED OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED SO I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THREAT OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS.

IT WILL BE HOT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS.
THE ONLY CLOUDS THAT WE WILL SEE TOMORROW WILL BE PASSING CIRRUS
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THE
EXTENDED SOLUTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON SWINGING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH GENERAL TRFINESS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRST OFF...FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY SHOULD BE
WARM OVERNIGHT AND HOT THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING 90 F
FOR THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SE CORNER OF
THE STATE SAT AFTN AND EVE. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE ONSET OF PCPN FOR THE CONTDVD WILL BE SAT
MORN...THOUGH SLOW AT FIRST. FEEL THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE CO/KS BORDER...SO INITIALLY CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION SUN...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...LINGERING
CONVECTION CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN AND
MON. MAX TEMPS ON MON SHOULD BE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS COMPARED TO CURRENT READINGS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON TUES AND WED AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE HI PRES RIDGE THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS
COLORADO ON THU. THIS WILL USHER IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR
TUE...THEN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WED AND THU. BOTH THE GFS AND EC
INDICATE A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ON
THU...SO INTRODUCED ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGHEST PEAKS
THU AFTN AND EVE. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ISOLD THUNDER NORTH OF
KCOS MAY BRING SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO KCOS.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTY SW SYNOPTIC WINDS...25
KNOTS...OCCUR AT KCOS AND KALS. LIGHTER SSW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KPUB.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ222>225.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ233-237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH