000
FXUS65 KPUB 281122
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

RAIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BRUNT OF STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH THE MCS ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  SHORT RANGE HIGH
RES MODELS HANG ON TO SOME POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK OVERDONE
WITH QPF (ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z RUNS)...THE OVERALL IDEA IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH A LITTLE WAA STILL OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS OUT THAT WAY.  WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MTS UNDER THE
ACTIVE MONSOON FLOW.

THE PUMP HAS BEEN PRIMED AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
TODAY.  DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE DETAILS OF
TIMING/COVERAGE AS THE MODELS APPEAR CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED THIS
MORNING AND SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF QPF
THIS MORNING.  RAP13 SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS SO
FOLLOWED IT...AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING HOURS.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS DON`T LOOK QUITE AS HIGH WITH TODAY`S ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA...AND A
SATURATED GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO CAUSE REGENERATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
BEFORE STORMS DRIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DRIVEN BY WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT.  WPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.  THERE
ARE STILL SOME POTENTIAL FLAWS HOWEVER AS RAP AND 06Z NAM12 ARE
QUITE A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND PLAINS...AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME...LIKELY A RESULT FROM
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WX PATTERN FITS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
WHICH WILL RUN FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE WATCH AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST IN
INCREASE IN RAIN OUT THAT WAY TODAY AS WELL.  WEST FORK BURN SCAR
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP.  06Z NAM12 HAS THE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM/TX PANHANDLE TONIGHT...WHILE GFS
SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CO.
HUNCH IS THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL FALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

...RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN RISK WILL CONTINUE...AS MONSOON
MOISTURE WITH BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. HPC HAS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS. A SHORT WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE ISSUES ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM (POSITIONS OF MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN)...BUT WE CAN EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
OVER ONE INCH. GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT DURING PAST DAYS...AND THE BURN
SCARS AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE.

FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AREAS...AND BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...60S AND 70S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 40S AND 50S MOUNTAINS. -TLM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

PATCHY MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  LA VETA PASS IS ALREADY
REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS...AND KPUB  AND KCOS SHOW A SCATTERED MVFR
LAYER.  GIVEN ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXITING EASTERN COLORADO...DON`T THINK THESE CIGS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER KPUB OR KCOS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
CERTAINLY SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR EACH OF THE TAF SITES...THOUGH IT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT KCOS AND KPUB AGAIN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
COZ064>068-072>089-093-094-097-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT