000
FXUS65 KPUB 161728
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1128 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

A LINE OF RADAR ECHOES WAS MOVING THRU THE FAR ERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 6 AM.  A
SHORTWAVE TROF WL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS CO TODAY WITH THE
AXIS EXPECTED TO BE NR THE ERN BORDER BY EVENING.  BEHIND THE UPR
DISTURBANCE DRIER AIR WL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH MSTR AROUND FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR
AND NR THE HYR TRRN.  SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BETTER LOW LEVEL
MSTR AND CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 600 J/KG...ALONG WITH THE UPR SHRTWV
TROF ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR
THE FAR ERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY ACRS THE AREA
WL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WL EXIT THE STATE THIS EVENING AND PCPN IS EXPECTED TO END BY
MIDNIGHT.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR THE
FAR EASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS INDICATING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL FLOW AND EXPECTED DEEP MIXING. MAY NEED SOME FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...THOUGH
WILL NEED TO SEE HOW FUELS ARE AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT (10-14C
AT H7) ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MT VALLEYS.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SECONDARY
ENERGY PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UVV ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY SUPPORTS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTS. ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS WELL INTO WESTERN KANSAS. COOLING ALOFT SUPPORTS
HIGHS ON SATURDAY SOME 4-9F COOLER THAN FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHIFTING OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS. TEMPS ALOFT COOL MORE ON SUNDAY WITH COOL AND BRISK
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS SECONDARY ENERGY
DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH PASSING SECONDARY ENERGY WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A DRIER AND
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE LATEST
ECMWF...HOWEVER...IS A TAD SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SECONDARY ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE ON
MONDAY. WITH THE COOLING ALOFT...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE
COOLEST DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY. WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MID
WEEK. ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. SFC WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A PASSING SHOWER/TSRA AT KCOS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO
MENTION EXPLICITLY IN TAF AS BOTH HRRR MODEL AND LOCAL WRF ARE
COMING IN DRY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH