Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291735
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1135 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

...Severe thunderstorms possible on the plains this afternoon...

Currently...a few light rain showers are passing across the San Luis
Valley and portions of the eastern plains along the New Mexico
border.  These areas probably will not see more than a few sprinkles
out of the showers through sunrise.  Elsewhere dry conditions
prevail with light winds and temperatures in the 50s.

Today...the main forecast concern for today will be the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern
plains this afternoon.  Models are still having a bit of
disagreement on how far west the dryline develops.  Have trended
with the NAM, NAM 4 km and NSSL WRF solutions with the dryline a bit
west based on the expected flow pattern and surface low development.

Aloft, an upper level low is forecast to drift across southern
California while flat high pressure shifts east out of Colorado and
into the central plains.  Southwesterly flow is forecast to
strengthen across Colorado by this afternoon.  An embedded
disturbance over southern New Mexico is forecast to lift northeast
into southern Colorado by late this afternoon.  This will for a
surface low to develop near Trinidad and should help pull the
dryline and moisture westward into eastern Colorado.  Both NAM
solutions and the NSSL WRF, along with a couple of other high-res
model solutions follow this scenario.  Expect thunderstorms
development by 21Z along the dryline which is forecast to track east
into western Kansas by this evening.  Models are pointing to Baca
County as being the most likely area to see a severe thunderstorms
this afternoon given the modest CAPE and shear profiles there.
Further north, shear will be limited, which will likely keep
thunderstorms below severe limits.  The main threats from storms
will be lightning, outflow winds approaching 60 mph and hail near
one inch in diameter, especially over Baca County.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late
morning over the mountains and spread east into the I-25 corridor
this afternoon, before dissipating this evening.  There is some
disagreement as the the extent of shower and thunderstorm coverage,
with a few high-res solutions bringing more widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the I-25 corridor, while a few solutions keep the
greatest coverage confined to the Palmer Divide.

Tonight...expect showers and thunderstorms to continue east across
the plains and dissipate during the overnight hours.  Any severe
threat should come to an end during the evening as thunderstorms
move into Kansas.   Once showers and thunderstorms dissipate, expect
dry conditions to prevail into Monday morning.  Overnight lows will
fall into the 50s across the region.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

...Another System Tuesday and Tuesday Night...

Pattern to remain active for a few more days.  Monday afternoon and
evening, a shortwave will move through the ridge over Colorado,
delivering another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
This system looks to primarily impact areas along and north of
Highway 50.  It could also help to trigger storms along the dryline
over the far eastern plains near Kansas.  A few severe storms will
be possible across El Paso County and also along the dryline.

Tuesday and Tuesday night looks like the most active period of the
week as a strong low pressure area tracking through the northern
U.S. plains sends a strong cold front south through eastern
Colorado. The front will send a strong surge of upslope flow south
through the plains and back up against the eastern mountain ranges.
First convective and then more stratiform precipitation are poised
to develop behind the front as it moves through, favoring the
eastern slopes of the mountains and the adjacent plains along the
I25 corridor.  Additionally, snow levels may lower to near 9000 feet
Tuesday night bringing another round of wet snow to the region above
the snow level.

Wednesday, the system will be mainly south of the area but clouds
and cool temperatures will linger over southern Colorado.  The
plains may be too stable for much in the way of additional
precipitation but areas over and near the mountains will likely see
another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Thursday through Saturday, the pattern switches back to a more
summer-like one.  A big ridge of high pressure will build over the
western US and northern Rockies.  This will bring warmer and
generally drier air to the region.  There will still be slight
chances for thunderstorms each day but these will mainly be over the
mountains during the afternoon and evening hours.  Temperatures will
soar to summertime levels during the period, rising from near
average on Thursday to well above average and just plain hot across
the plains Friday and Saturday.  High temperatures will be nearing
the 90 degree mark across much of the lower Arkansas River Valley
both Friday and Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS for the next 24
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstoms will continue to
develop over the mountains and spread east across the adjacent
plains through the early evening withg storms diminish overnight.
Best chances for storms affecting terminals will be at COS from
20z through 01z. Storms that move across the terminals will produce
gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and brief rainfall. A few storms
across the far southeast plains could be strong to severe this
afternoon, producing large hail.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW



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