Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201004
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
404 AM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Westerly upper flow will remain in place across CO today and
tonight as flat upper ridge persists across the Rockies. Weak cold
front over the eastern plains has already washed out early this
morning, with wly winds returning to areas along and west of I-25 as
of 10z. For today, lee trough slowly deepens over the plains, with
weak wly winds gradually strengthening through the day. While
humidity will certainly be low once again, doesn`t appear winds will
be strong enough to warrant any fire weather highlights, as most
gusts should be fairly sporadic and stay below 25 mph. 700 mb
thermal ridge remains in place across the plains this afternoon, and
with deep mixing, max temps will again approach records at many
locations, with readings at or just slightly below yesterday`s very
warm values. By late afternoon weak upper energy moves across nrn
CO, which may produce a few rain/snow showers along the Continental
Divide, though precip will be spotty and light.

Tonight, cooler air backs into the eastern plains, with boundary
near the I-25 corridor by early Tue morning. Could see some low
clouds form behind the front over the plains late, especially near
the KS border, though precip chances look to stay mainly northeast
of the area. Central mountains could see some snow showers linger
through the night with some weak trailing upper energy, though again
precip amounts will be very light. Mins will remain mild across the
entire region, with below freezing temps limited to mainly the
higher peaks of the central and southwest mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.Tuesday and Wednesday...Cooler airmass remains over the plains
Tuesday and begins moving eastward on Wednesday. Model soundings
suggest the potential for some lower clouds Tuesday morning over
the eastern plains with the potential for the lower clouds as far
west as the I25 corridor Wednesday morning. Weak upper trough
will move over Colorado Tuesday afternoon and evening. There is
the potential for some light precipitation over the mountains.
Some light precipitation is also possible Tuesday evening as the
trough moves over eastern Colorado. Precipitation amounts over the
plains will be very light. Airmass on the plains is not
particularly cold and most precipitation on the plains should be
rain.

.Thursday and Friday. Longer range models and more of the
ensemble members are coming into better agreement on the general
path of the storm system. Models have slowed the system by about
12 hours from yesterdays runs. On Thursday, southwest flow aloft
will develop over the state with moisture moving into western
Colorado. Will have to watch for the potential for advisory amounts
of snow for the eastern San Juan Mountains. Current grids have
sub advisory amounts, but suspect there could be more moisture in
the system. Snow levels will begin high but will lower as the
trough approaches. By Thursday night trough moves east of the
mountains and models show rapid cyclogenesis somewhere over
eastern Colorado. GFS has the low over east central Colorado
keeping most of the heavier precipitation along the Palmer Divide
and northward. The EC is slightly further south with heavier precipitation
extending southward along the southern I25 corridor. There will
not be a lot of cold air with this system and snow levels could be
above the eastern plains. The devil is in the details but we will
have to monitor for the potential of significant precipitation
Thursday night and Friday on the plains, I25 corridor and eastern
mountains accompanied by gusty to strong north winds. System
should move east of the state by later Friday with precipitation
ending.

.Saturday and Sunday... Upper ridge builds over the state
Saturday for dry and mild weather. Next trough moves into the
state on Sunday bringing snow to the Continental Divide region.
Latest runs have been trending stronger with this system which
would increase the chances for precipitation over the eastern
mountains and plains. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

VFR conditions at all taf sites today and tonight. Over the
mountains, higher peaks along the Continental Divide may become
briefly obscured by snow showers late this afternoon and overnight,
though precip coverage/intensity will be isolated/light.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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