Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 160955

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Primary near-short range meteorological concerns include
temperatures, cloud coverage and localized elevated fire weather
concerns over primarily the central mountains today.

Forecast district currently graced by dry conditions in combination
with near seasonal mid-October early morning temperatures, generally
low-grade winds and increasing high clouds(especially over portions
of Teller, El Paso, Fremont and Pueblo counties) early this morning.

Recent real-time data, PV/Precipitable water analysis, computer
simulations and forecast model soundings indicate that eastern
Colorado lee-side surface troughing in combination with a dry
northwesterly upper flow pattern will allow dry conditions as well
above seasonal temperatures and variable primarily high-level
cloudiness at times over the forecast district during the next 24

In addition, localized elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible today(primarily over portions of Chaffee and Saguache
counties), although duration and fuels not favorable for issuing
fire weather highlights at this time.

Finally, above seasonal mid-October temperatures in combination with
low-grade gradient winds should be realized over the forecast
district today and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Tuesday-Wednesday...Moderate northwest flow aloft across the region
Tuesday becomes more westerly Tuesday night and Wednesday, as upper
level ridging building across the Great Basin flattens across the
Rockies by a weak upper level system translating across the Northern
Tier. This pattern will keep warm and dry weather in place across
the area with highs back above seasonal levels in the 70s to lower
80s across the lower elevations, with mainly 50s and 60s across the
higher terrain.

Thursday-Sunday...Latest models coming into better agreement with
another quick hitting upper trough translating across the Rockies
for the Friday night through Saturday night timeframe, however they
differ on the timing and affect of a lead short wave ejecting across
the area on Thursday night and early Friday. The GFS is a tad
stronger with this first short wave and prints out some light QPF
across the higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd Thursday
night and Friday, where as the EC is slower and weaker with the said
system and keeps the area dry. GFS is also a tad stronger and faster
with the stronger trough digging across the Great Basin on Friday,
which continues across the Rockies through the day Saturday and into
the High plains Saturday night, where as the EC is a tad slower and
not as deep with said system.

At any rate, increasing southwest flow will lead to breezy and warm
conditions across the area on Thursday and especially across the
eastern Plains on Friday. Blended model solutions has slight pops
across the ContDvd Thursday night, with increasing chances of
precipitation across the higher terrain Friday afternoon and night,
spreading east across adjacent plains through the day Saturday, as
the associated cold front pushes across the plains. Snow levels look
to remain relatively high through Friday afternoon and possibly
lowering to near 8000 ft Friday and Saturday, with best chances of
precipitation remaining over and near the higher terrain. The
coolest day looks to be Saturday areawide, with another warming and
drying trend in the offing for Sunday and into early next week, with
upper level ridging building across the Rockies once again.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions and generally light winds are anticipated over the
KALS, KCOS and KPUB TAF sites during the next 24 hrs as upper
ridging becomes centered over central Arizona by 12Z Tuesday.




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