Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191733
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Issued a Freeze Warning for tonight along the I-25 corridor and
made some minor adjustments to the overnight low temp forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 907 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Updated to end all the winter weather highlights except for the
Winter Weather Advisory for the southern Sangre de Cristo
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Primary near-short range meteorological concerns include but are not
limited to pops, temperatures, qpf and winds.  Portions of the
forecast district currently graced by lower terrain rain showers and
high terrain snow showers in combination with below seasonal later
May temperatures.

Recent real-time data, PV analysis, computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that closed upper low located over
west-central Colorado early this morning will slowly progress to
east-central Colorado by sunset before shifting into north-central
Kansas by sunrise Saturday.

This system will allow unsettled conditions(in the form of lower
elevation rain showers and high terrain snow) to continue over the
majority of the forecast district into this evening, before
conditions begin improving by later tonight, therefore will continue
with existing winter highlights as additional accumulating snow is
anticipated.

In addition, current freeze and frost highlights appear to be on
track as early morning temperatures of 28F at Monument Hill and 31F
at the Air Force Academy as well as mid 30s readings over portions
of Huerfano county noted. In addition, expect another round of near
freezing/freezing temperatures over Interstate 25 corridor locations
from later tonight into early Saturday morning, however will refrain
from issuing additional Freeze/Frost highlights until after current
Freeze/Frost highlights expire later this morning.

Finally, temperatures today and tonight are projected to run well
below climatological averages in combination with locally gusty
winds times.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

Upper low slowly drifts newd through the central plains Sat,
leaving nw flow in place across CO through the day. Might be just
enough energy and moisture left behind for a few -shra/weak -tsra
over the mountains in the afternoon, though precip
coverage/intensity will be sparse/light. Max temps will begin to
slowly recover, though readings will still be 10-15f below
seasonal averages. Stronger piece of upper energy then rotates
southward through the Rockies Sun/Sun night, which should bring
greater coverage of -shra/-tsra over most of the region from late
Sun afternoon into early Mon morning. Convective intensity again
appears rather weak as surface CAPE is forecast to only range from
200-400 J/KG. Max temps Sun will continue to warm, as mid level
temps climb and mixing increases. With upper trough slow to exit
the area Mon, and another piece of energy rotating around the
central plains low and across CO on Tue, suspect we`ll keep
afternoon/evening -shra/-tsra chances in place across most of the
region both days, though again strong storms look unlikely. Max
temps Mon will stay within a few degf of Sunday`s numbers, then
some cooling on Tues as cold front surges south across the plains.
Upper ridge then builds eastward across the Rockies Wed/Thu which
should put an end to most convection and allow temps to warm to
back to near late May averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

There will be the potential for showers in the vicinity of KCOS,
KPUB and KALS into the evening hours, with KCOS and KPUB having a
better chance at seeing showers than KALS. The showers could at
times bring a lower cloud deck that could be in the MVFR category.
After about 05Z the clouds are expected to decrease.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for
COZ084>088.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ074-
075.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...28



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