Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220116
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
716 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Have updated the forecasts and the grids to remove the tornado
watch for Baca, Prowers, and Kiowa counties. The threat of
thunderstorms has ended with thunderstorms staying east of the
CWA. Stark

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Main challenges for the forecast district during the near/short
term include isolated pops(some strong to potentially severe over
far eastern sections), temperatures and gusty winds at times.

Forecast district currently experiencing above seasonal afternoon
temperatures, variable cloudiness including a developing cu field
over the far southeastern Colorado plains and gusty winds.

Recent PV analysis, real-time data, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations suggest that relatively dry southwesterly
upper flow will prevail over the majority of the forecast
district into Sunday, with the far eastern plains having the
highest potential of experiencing storm activity(some potentially
severe) into this evening and then again from later Sunday into
Sunday evening. In addition, a Tornado watch is currently in
effect for Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties until 9 PM MDT.

Above seasonal temperatures are expected to continue over the
forecast district into Sunday in combination with gusty winds at
times, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

A mainly dry weather pattern is expected for the first 2/3rds of
this time period...and then it may get a bit more active as a
stronger pacific weather system affects the region during the THU-
FRI time frame.

Sunday night...mainly dry wx expected. There is a very low chance of
some tsra across the plains early in the evening along the dryline
which will likely be on the KS side of the CO/KS border. Other isold
tsra could occur on the far e Plains when a cool front move across
the region during the nighttime hours. Probability of this
happening is very low...but non-zero.

Monday...

Upslope flow is expected to develop during the afternoon behind the
cool front which crossed the evening before. However...conditions
rather dry in the llvls. Guidance is still printing  out some low
end pops over the Palmer Dvd Monday late afternoon/evening...and
kept some low end pops over this region during this time period. Any
activity that does develop should end after sunset.

Tuesday...

Modest sw flow aloft will be over the region. this will likely keep
the dryline to our east...and we will see breezy sw sfc winds this
day with very warm temps in the 80s to L90s on the plains.

Wednesday...

Another warm and mainly dry day expected although temps may be a
degree or two cooler and sfc winds will be less as a weak short wave
ridge moves across the area in the sw flow aloft. Any precip that
does occur will be in the mtns.

Thursday...

Showers and tsra may begin to ramp on this day as a modest short
wave approaches the region...and should be located along the 4
corners by 00z FRI. A boundary will likely be stretched out over the
plains and showers and storms will likely fire up along it during
the afternoon. In addition...shower and storms will be increasing
over the mtns as heights fall in advance of the disturbance.

Given that CAPE and shear will be increasing...svr storms may be
possible over the plains THU afternoon and evening.

Friday...

both EC and GFS close the trough off over ec CO Friday afternoon.
GFS is more aggressive with precip while EC is a bit dryer.
Nonetheless we will likely see scattered showers and storms over the
area...especially over the  Palmer Divide and over the higher
terrain. Svr threat looks low attm given the orientation and
location of the low. IF the storm should track a bit farther south
and spin up quicker...then the plains would see a better shot of
more widespread and heavier precip.

Temps this day will likely be much cooler than the previous
days...with highs only in the 60s and 70s over the plains...and 60s
valleys.

Saturday...

Cool day expected in wake of upper low which will be racing east
across the Midwest. Not much forcing over the region by remnant
moisture should allow for a few isold showers and storms across the
region. temps will warm up into the 70s most areas with 60s valleys.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Other than gusty south to southwest surface winds exceeding 30 mph
at times, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, a
generally dry southwesterly upper flow pattern will allow VFR
conditions to be noted over the KALS, KCOS and KPUB taf sites into
Sunday.


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK



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