Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 110607

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1107 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

Issued at 1101 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

Updated to end the winter weather advisory for the Sangre de
Cristo mountains. Periods of light snow, especially over the
southern portion of the mountain range, will continue through
Thursday morning. Minor additional accumulations are possible.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

...Quick burst of rain and snow this evening...

Cold front and associated precip band pushing across the Continental
Divide this afternoon, with nrn portion of the front beginning to
cross the Front Range as of 21z. Mountain web cams suggest snow so
far has been rather showery and light, though with main forcing
beginning to reach the Divide, expect a period of moderate to heavy
snow over the higher peaks into the evening, and will keep current
set of highlights in place. Interior valleys will see a mix of rain
and snow showers this evening, with some spotty light accums
possible over the upper Ark Valley from Salida northward. Over the
ern mountains and plains, cold front will sweep southward early this
evening, followed quickly by a 1-3 hr period of precip before best
forcing shifts south and east of the area by midnight. Low level
temp forecasts and upstream observations suggest mainly rain along
and east of I-25, with perhaps a brief mix or change to snow over
the far southeast as snow levels fall by 06z. Palmer Divide/El Paso
county and high terrain along the NM border may see a slightly
quicker changeover, leading to some spotty 1-3 inch accums above
6500 feet. Precip ends fairly quickly all areas after midnight, with
some lingering flurries possible over the mountains and near the KS
border until 10-12z. North winds behind the cold front will become
strong on the plains this evening and overnight, and some gusts of
45-55 mph look likely, especially close to the KS border, though
strongest winds may not arrive until after most rain/snow has ended.

Mainly dry and cooler conditions then expected across the region on
Thu, with a few flurries/snow showers possible over the higher peaks
of the central mountains and Sangres through the day. While max
temps will be some 10-20f cooler than the past few days at many
locations, readings will still end up within a few degf of
of seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

Outside of the central mountains at times, forecast district
should experience generally dry conditions in combination with
generally above seasonal mid-January temperatures during the
longer term with primary meteorological issues being temperatures,
gusty winds at times as well as central mountain snow amounts.

Compilation of latest longer term forecast model soundings,
PV/Precipitable water analysis and computer simulations suggest
that outside of a passing upper disturbance impacting portions of
the central mountains from later Thursday night into early Friday
evening(where accumulating snow in the 1 to 5 inch range is
anticipated), expect that basically dry conditions will be noted
over the majority of the CWA from Thursday night into next
Wednesday as dry northwesterly to zonal upper flow prevails over
southern Colorado.

The highest potential for more widespread stronger winds over the
forecast district during the longer term should be experienced
from Thursday evening into Friday night.

At this time, it appears that coolest temperatures over the
majority of the forecast district during the longer term should
be realized Saturday and Monday, while warmest conditions are
anticipated Friday and next Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 340 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

KALS...Will carry a vcsh mention through the evening as isolated
showers move across the valley, with some brief periods of MVFR
possible under heavier precip. Improving conditions are expected
after 05z with VFR through the day Thursday.

KCOS...A strong cold front will move across the terminal around 23z,
with north winds gusting in excess of 40 kts possible for much of
the night. Rain, mixing with snow may be possible behind the front
in the 00z to 04z time frame with a period of MVFR/brief IFR
cigs/vis. VFR conditions then expected from 05z into the day on Thu,
with NW winds gradually diminishing after 18z.

KPUB...A strong cold front will move south across the terminal
around 00z with north winds gusting in excess of 40 kts possible for
much of the night. A band of rain may also move across the terminal
in the 00z to 04z time frame with reduced CIGS and VIS. Improving
conditions are expected overnight into Thursday with gradually
diminishing winds.

Over the mountains, most higher terrain locations will be obscured
by clouds/showers tonight, with improving conditions early Thu


Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ066.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ058-060.



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