Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

...BIG STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A HEAVY DOSE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SPEWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA...UTAH AND NOW INTO WESTERN COLORADO.  ALL OF THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT IS HEADED OUR WAY...AND WILL MOVE FULL FORCE INTO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  RADAR IMAGERY HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
LIGHT UP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.  TONIGHT...THE
ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PLAINS...AND HIT HARD IN SOME
CASES.

PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.  OVER A FOOT OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE
10000 FEET...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8000
AND 10000 FEET...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT.

OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE STORY WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING BURN SCAR...URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD CONCERNS.  ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE...BUT THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO
AND TELLER COUNTIES WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THIS AREA WILL BE A PRIME TARGET FOR RUNOFF
ISSUES TONIGHT GIVEN THE BURN SCAR AND URBAN RUNOFF CONCERNS ALONG
WITH DRAINAGE INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CURRENTLY MODEL QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SUGGEST ANYWHERE
FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF WATER COULD FALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 1.50 INCHES
ELSEWHERE...AND LOCALLY UP TO 2.00 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF EL PASO
AND TELLER COUNTIES.  SO...A GOOD SOAKING PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS.

ANOTHER BIG CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ESCALATING OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  TONIGHT...ANY STORM CELL ROTATION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY STAY ELEVATED.  HOWEVER...TOMORROW...
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET THINGS
GOING AT GROUND LEVEL.  MODEL COMPUTED CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE
OVER 2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF LAS ANIMAS...OTERO AND BACA COUNTIES
TOMORROW FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH COMPUTED LIS
DOWN TO -6 TO -8 IN THE SAME AREA.  THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA OF
THE POSSIBLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/TRIPLE POINT EVOLUTION. TO
TOP IT ALL OFF...0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 65-70
KNOTS.  IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN REALIZE THE
INSTABILITY.  IF WE DO...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS INCLUDING TORNADOES.  STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER EXITING
THE STATE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOIST
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THE
MENTION OF FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WESTERLY FLOW MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE HEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE
SFC...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS STATES...KEEPING
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT-THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH THE LATEST ECMWF
FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHERE AS THE GFS IS A TAD FURTHER
NORTH LIFTING THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LATER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT
WINDIER AND DRIER FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BEING IN THE DRY SLOT. AT ANY
RATE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS...HOWEVER THERE ARE
A FEW MEMBERS POINTING TO THE FURTHER SOUTH EC SOLUTION...AND WITH
THAT SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WITH CHANCE
AND SLIGHT CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS DO AGREE ON THE
PASSING SYSTEM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE AND CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THROUGH
TUE MID-AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED ABOVE 10000 FEET. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FOUND AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...BUT
ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR WITH INTERMITTENT LIFR FOR KCOS AND
KPUB...ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. KALS WILL SEE
INTERMITTENT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-084-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-063-
073-075-080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ059-061-
066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE


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