Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 282121
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...

CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER S EL PASO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
T/TD SPREADS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 40F...SO STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE STILL OVER CO/WY BORDER MOVG SSE.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND MTNS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. GUIDANCE
INDICATED ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER THIS EVENING BUT WITH ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZED...THIS LOOKS LESS LIKELY. MAIN THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON FROM PUEBLO SOUTH AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. PRECIP SHOULD END LATE THIS
EVENING.

TOMORROW...

WITH LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING TOMORROW...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND RATON MESA REGION...WITH THE PLAINS
REMAINING DRY. TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH DAILY HEATING AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT FOR
DIURNAL MT CONVECTION...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 50S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS. AFTN MAX TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT AND EDGE TO THE WEST STARTING LATE TUE...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE N
ROCKIES AND THE DAKOTAS SOME TIME ON WED...WHICH WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPS AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT INCREASED PCPN ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THE QUESTION IS WHEN THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH MEANS CONTINUED WARM TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND INCREASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST IN THE EVE AND
LATE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO
THE WEST...WHILE ACROSS THE CWA A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED WILL MEAN
UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW BOTH THU AND FRI. BOTH DAYS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL START TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE STATE...HEATING THINGS UP
ONCE AGAIN AS WELL AS RESTRICTING CONVECTION BACK TO THE HTS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

BELIEVE STRONGEST THUNDER HAS PASSED KCOS BUT AN ISOLD WEAKER
SHOWER/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AT KPUB...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 28/2300 UTC...THEN IT WILL DECREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAKER
SHOWERS/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING.

KALS MAY SEE SOME THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR TOMORROW...ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE KCOS AND KPUB...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE AT KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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