Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011125
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
425 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF/ASSOC UPPER JET IS TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN CO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING.  BEST DYNAMICS
ARE PULLING EASTWARD AND WITH UPPER FORCING WEAKENING OVER
OUR AREA...MAIN MECHANISM FOR KEEPING SNOW GOING THIS MORNING WILL
BE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE CREST OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON MESA.  WEB CAMS ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY APPEAR TO SHOW AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW...THOUGH HARD TO TELL EXACTLY.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO AN INCH EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY BEFORE THE SNOW RAPIDLY DIMINISHES AFTER 13-14Z.

THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM WALSENBURG TO TRINIDAD COULD PICK UP
AN INCH OR TWO THIS MORNING...BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR TO
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...PER
HRRR...RAP...AND NAM12.  THEREFORE HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL WON`T BE HEAVY...IT WILL BE
SLICK...ICY...AND SNOW PACKED FOR ANYONE TRAVELING OVER THE TWO
DIVIDES (PALMER AND RATON) THIS MORNING.

IT WILL DRY OUT BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY ACT
ON SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
CAA SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS.  IN FACT...WITH CAA CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY...HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS LIKELY OCCURRED AROUND MIDNIGHT.
STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A
BLUSTERY DAY...IN SPITE OF CLEARING SKIES.

NEXT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH LATER
TONIGHT...SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND WIND INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS BY MORNING. AFTER A QUICK PLUNGE IN
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...INCREASING CLOUDS AND LEE TROFING WILL
RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR AS WESTERLY WINDS KICK
IN.  HAVE GONE ON THE COLD SIDE FOR LOWS...GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND
LACK OF CLOUDS EARLY ON.  MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN AFTER
06Z...WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS FROM
DROPPING BELOW ZERO.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES...MAJORITY OF
FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS(WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION FROM LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN SECTIONS).

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT
BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW(OUTSIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS) WILL BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE(OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN SECTIONS) FROM LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWFA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL FAVOR ROUNDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOW OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS
TIME...HAVE DEPICTED SNOW AMOUNTS PRIMARILY IN THE 1 TO 4
INCH RANGE DURING ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD DURING THIS TIME-FRAME
...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE.  AS ALWAYS...WFO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

OVERALL...NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES
ARE PROJECTED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS DURING THE LONGER
TERM SHOULD BE NOTED MONDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...KCOS AND KPUB WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
NEAR KCOS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.  NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT KCOS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE.  KPUB MAY SEE A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE EAST AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH
THE DAY.  KALS RECEIVED SOME CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS
ALLOWED LIFR CONDITIONS WITH DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  FORECAST MODELS
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS VERY WELL.  SUSPECT THAT DENSE FOG MAY
LINGER AT KALS THROUGH 13Z BEFORE DRY AIR AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD ERODE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT ALS AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...THEN
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT.  THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AT KCOS AFTER 06Z.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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