Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 020014
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
614 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED TO PULL POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING BASED ON
RADAR AND RECENT HI-RES MODEL DATA.  MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

MAIN NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE
TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND LOCALIZED LOW-
GRADE POPS.

CWFA EXPERIENCING NEAR SEASONAL SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE
CLOUDS NOTED OVER PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT TIMES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FAR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WELL NORTH OF OUR CWFA.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...REAL-TIME DATA AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH RECENT HRRR MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THREATEN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL
PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES AS WELL AS SECTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND BACA
COUNTIES FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NOTED OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY...PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AT TIMES
FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WHILE ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY
SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

...HOT WITH LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY THEN
COOLER WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW.  COULD
BE SOME SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THEN...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY DRY LINE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  MODELS
HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOW BUT
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS ALIVE.

ON THURSDAY...THINGS START TO TRANSITION TO A COOLER...WETTER
PATTERN.  MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT ON THIS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING.  IT STARTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...MOIST UPSLOPE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY FIRE THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH WORK EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH ADDED MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
UPSLOPE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME RICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AT TIMES...JUST DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TRACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  RIGHT NOW...INDICATIONS ARE THAT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BOTH BE PRETTY WET OVER THE REGION WITH CONCERNS OF
FLASH FLOODING.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK PRETTY WET FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THE PLAINS LOOK MORE STABLE WITH LESS ACTIVITY.  ALL
OF THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND HIGHLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...LW


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