Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 260512
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

A BIT CONCERNED THAT WX MAY GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
INCREASE TO OUR NORTH AND WORK SWD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AT 7 PM HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS. BELIEVE THERE
IS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE KDEN AREA AND THIS WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE SE THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER THE
PIKES PEAK REGION AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

...BACK TO THE SEVENTIES...

REMEMBER THOSE DAYS? WELL...WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN AND H7 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO 7 DEG OR HIGHER TOMORROW...SHOULD GET INTO THE SEVENTIES
TOMORROW OVER THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY NR 80 DEGREES FOR THE WARMEST
SPOTS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE GUIDANCE
VALUES...HOWEVER.

REST OF TODAY...MARGINAL THREAT OF SVR HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT
STILL AREAS OF 750-1000 CAPE...ESPECIALLY NR THE KS BORDER.
SO...DESPITE MODEST SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MARGINALLY STRONG-
SVR STORMS IN MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVE.
SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.

SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...WITH THE PASSES CURRENTLY
REPORTING MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW ST OFF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN MODEST ON TUE...SO SVR THREAT WILL BE LOW. EXTREME
SE CORNER OF THE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME MARGINALLY SVR PARAMETERS
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE NAM IS INDICATING SUPPRESSED CONVECTION
OVR THAT AREA DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING. ENJOY THE SEVENTIES! ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUE NIGHT AND WED...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVR THE AREA WL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS AN UPR LOW MOVES INTO ID AND ITS UPR TROF EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD TO BAJA CA.  SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR AND NR
THE MTNS TUE EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON WED AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE REST OF THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH
TEMPS ON WED WL BE AROUND AVERAGE...WHICH IS MOSTLY IN THE 70S OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE UPR TROF IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WED NIGHT
AND THU...EXTENDING FROM WRN WY INTO AZ BY 00Z FRI. THU LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVR AND NR THE MTNS AREAS.
FOR FRI A BAGGY TROF WL LIE OVR THE STATE...AND A FRONT WL MOVE THRU
SERN CO.  THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REALLY MOISTEN UP DURING THE DAY
FRI...WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING FRI NIGHT.
TEMPS ON THU SHOULD DROP BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN. THE UPR TROF
AND LOW WL MOVE EAST INTO KS SAT...BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR ERN CO ON SAT...WITH THE MTN
AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS HAVING SCT PCPN.

SAT NIGHT THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST
AREA WL THEN HAVE DRIER WX. ON SUN AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GREAT
BASIN AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVR CO ON MONDAY.  THERE WL STILL BE
ENOUGH MSTR AROUND FOR SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

KPUB...

WILL SEE SOME PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY IN THE FCST PD...THEN
VFR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNON TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
HEAVIER TSRA LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING CIGS/VIS
TO MVFR. VFR EXPECTED BY TOMORROW EVENING.

KCOS AND KALS...

VFR NEXT 24H EXCEPT FOR MID TO EARLY EVENING TSRA AT THE TAF
SITES. BRIEF PDS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH


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