Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241731
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1031 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

OLD CLOSED LOW OVER NW AZ IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO NM BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO TX/OK AS KICKER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHWEST CO LATER TONIGHT.  MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MAINLY JUST SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND REGION WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  LAPSE RATES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN
JUANS...SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND FAR SOUTHERN SANGRES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD PUT DOWN A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW...BUT GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE
DON`T THINK HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE IN ORDER.  ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN WE START TO SEE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALREADY
SEEING TEMPERATURES WARMING ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND SPREADING
DOWN INTO THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS.  FOR
INSTANCE...COLORADO SPRINGS WHICH WAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LAST
EVENING HAS WARMED INTO THE LOWER 20S.  MEANWHILE PUEBLO IS STILL
SITTING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS OF 3 AM...AND WESTCLIFFE IS STILL AT
0. EXPECT EVEN THESE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD START TO SEE WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. H7 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
-3 TO -6 THIS AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT SOME LOWER 40 TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZES THIS
MORNING SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING. BUT THINK
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL...AND CUT BACK HIGHS FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE VALUES.  KEPT
THEM IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SO SOME AREAS MAY
ACTUALLY END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW LEADS TO LEE TROFFING AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S ALONG
THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES...WHILE THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
DROPS INTO THE TEENS...AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN UNSETTLED AND COOL TO COLD METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE LONGER TERM AS SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
FORECAST DISTRICT.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE CWFA BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK.

INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE SURGE IS PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
DISTRICT(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS) FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAINS...TELLER COUNTY AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.

AT THIS TIME...SNOW AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED EASTERN
MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILL LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT(4TH PERIOD) WITH SOME
LOCALIZED WARNING SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ALSO...ADDITIONAL
SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT)...WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. AS
ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS INITIAL SYSTEM AND ISSUE WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AS WARRANTED.

THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THIS 2ND STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...TO
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOUNTAINS(ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS) DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME AS WELL AS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA ONCE
AGAIN. ALSO...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER NEXT TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL LATE FEBRUARY TO EARLY MARCH MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH
COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES READINGS PROJECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2015

AT KALS...IFR STRATUS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF VFR FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG TOWARD SUNRISE
WED...CONTINUING THROUGH MID-MORNING.

AT KPUB AND KCOS...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHENING BY MIDDAY WED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN


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