Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 162150
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Desert SW upper ridge slowly building northward across Southern
Colorado today, with warm to hot max temps across the entire region.
With weak wave brushing by to the north, last couple runs of the GFS
and NAM develop some high based convection over the Pikes Peak
region this evening, but with dry low levels suspect virga at best
and will keep forecast dry all areas. Should be just enough wly flow
to keep most locations slightly mixed overnight, leading to rather
mild min temps areawide. On Sat, ridge begins to flatten as upper
trough sharpens over the nrn plains and cold front associated with
the trough approaches the area during the afternoon. Most models
suggest fropa around 00z or later on the plains, which will keep srn
CO hot and dry for another day, with max temps perhaps a degf or two
warmer than Fri as mixing will increase slightly ahead of the front.
Best chance for any convection Sat afternoon will be over the Palmer
Divide and across Teller county late, as front pushes through around
00z and moisture begins to slosh westward. Over the mountains and
interior valleys, west winds could gust to 25-30 kts in the
afternoon as flow aloft increases, while humidity again plummets to
below 10 percent late in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Primary longer term meteorological concerns include continued
above seasonal temperatures(outside of Monday), winds and the
potential for generally low-grade pops at times.

Recent longer term forecast model soundings, PV analysis and computer
simulations indicate that upper ridging should remain located over
the desert southwest into southern Colorado during the balance of
the longer term allowing for above seasonal mid to late June
minimum and maximum temperatures(with the exception of Sunday as
a 1015 MB surface high briefly builds into eastern sections by
Sunday morning in the wake of a healthy north-northeasterly
surface surge moving across the forecast district during the later
Saturday into Saturday night time-frame).

At this time, it appears that daily rounds of isolated showers and
thunderstorms should be noted each day with a potential uptick in
thunderstorm strength and coverage from late week into next
weekend(which extends slightly outside of my current official
forecast window).

Finally, warmest maximum temperatures over the forecast district
during the longer term should be experienced Tuesday and
Wednesday, where maximum temperatures nearing or slightly
exceeding the century mark is anticipated over several eastern
locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 350 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours with
diurnally driven winds under 15 kts. Front will arrive 23z-24z Sat
afternoon at KCOS, with a switch to gusty north winds through the
evening. Could see some isolated -tsra behind the front Sat evening
as well, with a low threat of a storm at KPUB and KCOS after 00z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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