Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 301906
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
106 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Updated to end winter storm warning on the plains.

UPDATE Issued at 910 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Updated for expiration of freeze warning and western edge of the
winter storm warning. Quick web cam tour of eastern Colorado
suggests worst conditions are near the KS border and across Baca
county, where winds have gusted over 50 kts at KSPD during the
past few hours. Still expect snow to end over the next few hours
which should help raise visibility across the area, though strong
north winds will continue to produce drifting snow into the
afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Updated to cancel Freeze Warning for zone 86 (most of Pueblo
county).

UPDATE Issued at 652 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Updated for cancellation of winter storm warning for Crowley,
Otero and western Las Animas counties. Also updated morning winds
across the southeast plains. Adjusted morning POPs across the
southeast plains based on current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 509 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Primary near-short range meteorological concerns include amount of
impact(mainly snow and winds/visibilities...etc.) departing system
has on primarily the southeastern Colorado plains into today as well
as temperatures.

Another active meteorological morning for southeastern Colorado as
recent real-time data...PV analysis...computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that vigorous closed upper low
centered over northwestern Oklahoma at 12Z this morning moves into
east-central Kansas by 00Z Monday before shifting into Iowa by 12Z
Monday.

This system will continue to produce a combination of snow(heavy at
times) and healthy north to northwesterly surface winds in the 30
mph 40 mph range(with higher wind gusts at times), especially over
the far southeastern plains into this morning, therefore have
maintained existing Winter Storm Warnings for the majority of this
sector until 19Z today.

In addition, a Freeze Warning remains in effect for the I-25
corridor and adjacent areas until 9 AM this morning due to current
and/or expected freezing temperatures over many of these locations.
Also, another freeze warning may be needed for early Monday morning,
although recent data suggests temperatures may be slightly too warm
over many locations to issue at this time.  WFO Pueblo will monitor
closely.

Elsewhere across the forecast district, anticipate that drier
conditions in combination with moderating temperatures(with amount
of warming depending on depth of snow pack) will be experienced
during the next 24 hours(although temperatures will run well below
late April/early May climatological averages).

Finally...the gusty north to northwest surface winds of
today(primarily over eastern sections) will taper off tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 509 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

A weak weather disturbance will be moving through the area on Mon,
with its main effect being some showers over some of the mountains
areas.  The central mtns will likely see the best chances for
showers but it is not expected to amount to much.  High temps on Mon
will be several degrees below average acrs the southeast plains, and
should be close to normal in the high valley locations.

The first half of Tue is expected to be mainly dry, but in the
afternoon a new weather system will move over the area.  The GFS
spreads pcpn acrs all the mtn areas and along the I-25 corridor in
the afternoon and then in the evening hours, increases pcpn ovr the
southeast mtns and all of the plains.  The NAM is a little slower
and mainly shows some pcpn in the late afternoon hours over the
central mtns and acrs the Pikes Peak area and Palmer Divide, and
then during the evening and overnight hours it spreads increased
pcpn chances over the southeast mtns and plains. Temps will remain
below average acrs the southeast plains on Tue and around average in
the high valleys.  The GFS is a little colder with this system than
the ECMWF and thus the snow level is a little uncertain at this
time, but looks like it will probably be above 6000 or 7000 feet. It
is expected to remain unsettled thru Wed with showers continuing
over the eastern mtns and maybe some of the plains.  Temps on Wed
will generally be colder than on Tue and will be below average acrs
all of southern CO.

An upper level ridge begins building over the area Wed night and Thu
and remains the dominant feature for Fri and into early Sat, with
dry weather and warmer temps.  Highs Thu are expected to mainly be
around average and then should warm to above average for Fri.

On Sat an upper level trof moves over the west coast and ahead of
this system, increasing southwest flow is expected to bring an
increase in mstr to the area, with the possibility of showers ovr
the mtns. Temps on Sat will likely be several degrees above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Upper level low lifting into the central plains today, with strong
north winds wrapping around the back of the departing low this
afternoon. All taf sites will see north winds gusting to 25-35 kts
until 01z, with winds then diminishing fairly quickly during the
evening and overnight. With low moving away, expect VFR conditions
across all areas the next 24 hrs.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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