Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201007
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
407 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST...CONTINUING TO FEED MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE DESERT
SW AND INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A DRY
SLOT WRAPPED UP AROUND THE LOW WHICH WAS MIGRATING UP INTO CENT AZ.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS COLORADO AS PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND SLV...AND
IN THE 450S FOR THE MTS AS OF 345 AM.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS STRAY A BIT WHEN IT COMES TO PCPN
COVERAGE...AND THE DRY SLOT IS A BIT WORRISOME. DECIDED TO BLEND POP
SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS...WHILE ERRING ON THE SIDE
OF CAUTION WHEN IT COMES TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.
THEREFORE...MAINTAINED ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS
MORNING...THEN WENT WITH SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND ISOLATED
POPS ELSEWHERE FROM LATE MORNING WELL INTO THE EVENING. OPTED TO
SPREAD ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE E PLAINS AS WELL THIS AFTN AND
EVE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WHAT HAPPENED ON TUE AS WELL AS WHAT THE
NAM IS INDICATING. ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN RETREAT BACK TO THE
CONTDVD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS FOR CLOUD COVER...WENT A BIT
HEAVIER THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL AREAS AND STUCK TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES
COOLER AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE DRY SLOT MIGRATES
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THEN TEMPS MIGHT BOOST RAPIDLY THROUGH MIDDAY.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

...ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM EJECTING
ACROSS CO AHEAD OF THE NEXT DIGGING SYSTEM ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKS END. GFS...ECMWF AND NAM BRING THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS COLORADO ON FRIDAY WHICH IS SLOWER THAN SOME EARLIER RUNS
HAD SUGGESTED AND MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION LAST NIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER FORCING STILL BACK ACROSS CA/WRN AZ THURS...LATEST
00Z RUNS KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
START TO COME UP...SFC DEW POINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 30S AND
40S...WHICH KEEPS LCLS ON THE HIGH SIDE. SO ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...THE LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO LIMIT CAPES TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG
AT BEST...ESP IN THE DRIER NAM RUN.

AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN DECIDING FACTOR ON THE IMPACT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS ON FRIDAY. WITH LATEST RUNS
SUGGESTING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH RELATIVELY
EARLY IN THE DAY...STABILITY COULD BE AN ISSUE...WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF STORMS AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES.
HOWEVER...NAM12 AS WELL AS A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO HINT AT A
POSSIBLE SLOWER TIMING TO THE UPPER TROF WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING/INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED IF THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ELEVATING THE
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING ON FRIDAY. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM GETS NAILED DOWN.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  SATURDAY LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION.  TROFFING HANGS BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST U.S. WITH YET ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH...SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AND YET ANOTHER
FOR TUESDAY.  WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS AND DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST CAPES MAY BE RUNNING ABOVE 1000 J/KG
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH VARIOUS PLACEMENTS OF A DRY LINE BY TUESDAY.
OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH THE MONSOON PATTERN SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS A DRY LINE AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS BY NEXT
WEEK. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
CONSTANT FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST WILL HELP THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS TODAY...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTN HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE MTS
BETWEEN 15Z AND 03Z...THOUGH CONVECTION MAY LAST ALL NIGHT ALONG THE
CONTDVD. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF VCTS FOR TAFS AFTER 18Z...WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE


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