Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1012 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

Area of snow showers over El Paso county continues to fade away
early this morning as upper wave slides east into the plains and
upslope flow gradually diminishes. For today and tonight, flat wly
flow will bring another weak wave across the area, with snow showers
re-firing over the mountains this afternoon and persisting through
much of the night. Snowfall amounts will be spotty and light, with
perhaps a couple inches over the higher peaks of the central
mountains by early Sunday morning. Interior valleys and eastern
plains will see increasing clouds today and tonight as wave
approaches, but forcing appears too weak to bring any snow down to
lower elevations, so will keep areas away from the mountains dry
through tonight. Max temps today will recover somewhat versus
Friday`s cold numbers as mid level temps begin to warm, but most
locations will remain below seasonal averages another day. Lows
tonight will be slightly milder as well, with clouds and slowly
modifying air mass boosting temps.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

Sunday...An upper disturbance is forecast to cross the state on
Sunday, providing isolated to scattered snow showers for the
ContDvd. This disturbance moves east of the state late Sun evening,
with the flow aloft then becoming more southwesterly ahead of the
next upper trough. Expect continued cool conditions, with max temps
in the 30s and 40s for the high valleys and plains. Forecast snow
accumulations along the Divide are expected to range from 1 to 2
inches at the most.

Monday and Tuesday...An upper trough sweeps across the Intermountain
West on Mon, then the northern Rockies and northern Plains on Tue.
The upper jet will be in the vicinity of the 4 Corners Mon, causing
strong downslope winds across the forecast area and likely producing
critical fire weather conditions for the plains. Snowfall is
expected to increase across the ContDvd on Mon, and spread to all of
the mts by Mon eve. A surface cold front will drop south across the
plains Tue morning, ushering in cooler air and an isolated shot of
some pcpn for the plains through the day Tue. Look for max temps in
the 40s and 50s for the high valleys, and upper 40s to around 60F
for the plains on Mon. Temps across the eastern plains on Tue will
drop 5 to 10 degrees with the cold front passage.

Wednesday through Friday...Northwest flow aloft develops and holds
fast across the region beginning mid-week, producing dry conditions
and slowly warming conditions. Expect high temps in the 30s and 40s
for the high valleys, and in the 40s to around 50F for the plains on
Wed. For Thu max temps are forecast to warm about 5 degrees higher
regionwide, then an additional 5 degrees of warming for Fri. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 957 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

Westerly flow will continue across flight area next 24 hours.
Scattered snow showers along the Continental Divide through
tonight will cause areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR conditions for
pilots trying to navigate the passes. A shortwave ridge of high
pressure will move across the flight area Sunday morning for a
general reprieve in shower activity 12-18Z Sunday.

Showers currently not expected to reach KCOS, KPUB or KALS
terminals through the forecast period. VFR expected at all 3
sites through 18Z Sunday.




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