Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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117
FXUS65 KPUB 141057
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE
WL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPING OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS...THERE WL BE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME ISOLD TO SCT AREAS
OF SNOW WL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS.

TONIGHT...SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS.  THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY SHOULD SEE THE
HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT THREE TO SIX INCHES. AS AN UPR
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU THE AREA TONIGHT...THERE WL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS OVR THE PIKES PEAK AREA...EL PASO
COUNTY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. IF PCPN DOES
DEVELOP OVR THE ERN PLAINS...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MONDAY-TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES CONTINUES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TO WORK WITH STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FLOW TO PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH SOME TAPERING OFF MONDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT. THE LIGHT SNOW...ALONG WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS...COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. WARMING ALOFT BEHIND
THE PASSING WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...TO
LEAD TO HIGHS WARMING TO ABOVE AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 30 AND
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS AS FAST MOVING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THOUGH MAY NOT FEEL AS WARM ON THURSDAY WITH THE EXPECTED
WIND.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LATEST MODELS DIFFER ON THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THOUGH GENERALLY AGREE ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER EMBEDDED  SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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