Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181726
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today with a few possible showers across the southern
  mtns.

- Warm temperatures continue through Saturday, with a cool down
  possible for late in the extended period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates a
cutoff low across central Arizona keeping modest easterly flow aloft
across southern and western Colorado at this time, with more
northerly flow aloft in place across the northern Rockies into
northeastern Colorado behind an upper trough translating across the
Upper Midwest. Moisture within the mid level easterly flow has
clouds in place across the Pikes Peak region through the southeast
mtns and southern I-25 Corridor, as well as portions of the San Luis
Valley and the eastern slopes of the La Garita and San Juan mtns,
with some stratus in place across the Upper Arkansas River Valley at
this time.

For today and tonight...Arizona cutoff low remains progged to lose
its grip on the weather across the region as it continues retrograde
further west through tonight. This will allow for clouds, over and
near the higher terrain early this morning, to diminish as mid level
flow becomes more northerly and drier air within the flow filters
into the the region. Latest models continue to indicate weak
instability in place across the southern mtns this afternoon, leading
to a few possible showers, especially across the eastern San Juan
mtns, where weak easterly mid level flow will persist the longest.
Precipitation associated with said showers is expected to be light
and spotty and confined to the higher peaks. As for temperatures,
with slight warming aloft and more sunshine today, will see highs
warming back to around seasonal levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s
across the plains, and mainly in the 40s to low 50s across the
higher terrain, save for 30s at the peaks. Have continued to
undercut guidance where snowcover persists across the plains, though
March sunshine has done its work over the past few days, with the
Colorado Springs airport down to a trace of snow on the ground,
compared to the 11 inches just 3 days ago. With mainly clear skies
and drier air in place tonight, should see overnight lows closer to
seasonal levels in the 20s to lower 30s across the plains and mainly
in the teens and 20s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Models and ensembles are in decent agreement through end of the
work week, however, differences arise for the weekend into early
next week. The main concern is with the development and track of
our next upper storm system. There has been large
inconsistencies from run to run, but the 00z runs from this
morning have a bit better agreement.

Tuesday and Wednesday...the upper low over the Desert Southwest
that has impacted our weather for the past few days, will
finally eject eastward during this period. Weak energy lifting
north out of New Mexico will lead to isolated to scattered
mountains snow showers both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
Any snow accumulations associated with these snow showers will
be minor, mainly less than 3 inches. Dry conditions are expected
across the Plains on Tuesday. As the upper system begins to
eject on Wednesday, one or two thunderstorms may be possible
over the far southeast Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Pea size hail, would be the main threat. Any convection that
develops will shift east of the area Wednesday evening.
Temperatures will reach into the 60s and perhaps a few low 70s
both days, while the San Luis Valley sees highs in the 50s.

Thursday through Saturday...generally zonal flow will influence
southern Colorado for late in the work week into the first half
of the weekend. For the most part, dry conditions are expected
to prevail, however,periods of light snow may be possible over
the Central Mountains. Any snow accumulations will be minor,
less than an inch at a time. Dry conditions are expected on the
Plains. Highs across the Plains will remain in the 60s to lower
70s, with highs near 60 across the San Luis Valley.

Sunday into Monday...the next upper storm system will take shape
and move across the region Saturday night into Monday. As
mentioned above, the 00z guidance has come more in line,
however, there has been little run to run consistency. This lead
to lower forecast confidence. Based on the 00z guidance, winds
would be a increasing concern Saturday night into Sunday. The
GFS has 50 kts at 700 mb around 12z Sunday morning, and elevated
fire weather conditions may be possible Sunday afternoon on the
Plains. A cold front late Sunday could bring the next round of
precipitation to the Plains Sunday night into Monday. The ECMWF
and Canadian are all showing this upper trough, but with varying
storm tracks and frontal strength. The ECMWF went from a more
zonal flow regime to a deeper trough Sunday into Monday with the
00z run. Did not stray from NBM guidance with increasing
precipitation chances across southern Colorado for late in the
extended period.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions near certain during the next 24 hours at all 3
TAF sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be quite light and
primarily diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WANKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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