Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 152210

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
310 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Dry weather can be expected through Thursday night across southeast
and south central CO.  High temps on Thu will be around 20 degrees
above average across the southeast plains with readings in the upper
60s and lower 70s.  The San Luis Valley should see temps around to
slightly above average with highs in the lower 40s, while the upper
Arkansas River Valley should see highs in the 50s.

Thu night and Fri a weather disturbance will move acrs MT, WY and
nrn CO, and a weak front is expected to move into the area Fri,
bringing slightly cooler temps, but still above average in most
areas.  Late in the day Fri, some moisture ahead of the next weather
system that will be moving onto the west coast, may move into
western portions of CO, bringing some showers to the Continental

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Friday Night and Saturday...Models agree on placing the upper low
pressure trough and associated closed low just off the southern CA
coast Friday night, with deep south to southwest flow ahead of the
system drawing moisture up into Colorado. The Pacific system tracks
to the southeast across the CA Baja through Saturday, producing
isolated to low-end scattered pops for the higher terrain. The best
chances for snow will actually be along the ContDvd, instead of the
eastern mts. This model trend indicates a slightly slower, and
deeper southern location, than previous model runs. Look for temps
in 40s and 50s for the high valleys, and 50s to mid 60s for the

Sunday and Monday...The system slides to the east across Mexico on
Sunday, then New Mexico and Texas on Monday. The GFS places the
upper low further south as compared to the EC, but the solutions are
very similar and the best window for pcpn across the forecast area
will occur Sunday aftn and eve. The best chance for snow will be
across the higher elevations, and the best shot for some rain will
occur across the far eastern plains near the Kansas border. However,
all areas will have a chance for some pcpn the second half of the
day Sunday. Pcpn chances then taper off through the day Monday as
the system continues sliding to the east into Texas. This southern
track is a somewhat warm one, so do not expect much cooling with it
save for a few degrees of lowering due to cloud cover. Max temps are
forecast to be in the 40s and 50s for the high valleys, and 60s for
the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...As the southern upper low pulls away, west
to southwest flow aloft settles back in for the state. There will be
an isolated chance of some showers for mainly the central mts, but
expect dry conditions elsewhere with very mild to warm temps. max
temps both days are forecast to climb into the 50s to lower 60s for
the high valleys, and 60s to lower 70s for the eastern plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

With an upper level ridge keeping the weather dry tonight and Thu,
VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites, along
with winds under 15 kts. There is a small chance for some low
clouds/fog to develop in the VCNTY of KALS late tonight/Thu morning,
but chances are too low to include a low CIG/VSBY in the forecast at
this time.




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