Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 280524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

SEVERAL UPDATES THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...TRENDED FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS. RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL...THROUGH
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING. MOST
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS ARE ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ELEVATED RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR HAIL TO
NEAR ONE INCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ELSEWHERE...RAIN
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE OTHER FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO ADD
ZONE 62...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CHAFFEE COUNTY...TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS AREA WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE ARKANSAS
RIVER/BIG HORN SHEEP CANYON WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT COOLER...SO DROPPED HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES. GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH WARMING WITH
MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS.

SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE RAMPART RANGE...WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET WITH ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 6000 AND
9000 FEET SEEING 6 TO 12 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

...SOME SNOW TONIGHT...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW (AND RAIN) STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER S CALIF AND WAS MOVING IN A E-
SE DIRECTION. LOCALLY...QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CO
WEST SLOPE AND OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THESE SHOWERS WERE DUE
PRIMARILY TO REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWERS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION ARE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WERE MODEST WITH READING IN THE
LOW 60S OVER FAR E CLO WHILE 50S WERE NOTED IN THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. 40S AND 50S WERE NOTED IN THE VALLEYS WITH 30S MAINLY IN THE
MTNS.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IS WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PARTS OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS IS
GOING TO HAPPEN...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. HRRR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT ON THIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION
SINCE I WALKED IN THE DOOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ITS QPF VALUES MAY
BE A BIT HIGH...BELIEVE THIS LOCATION IS REASONABLE AS LLVL UPSLOPE
WILL INCREASE AS PRESSURES START TO FALL AND SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
WINDS (~700 MB INCREASE). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
COULD OCCUR IN TELLER COUNTY AND 1-3" COULD FALL ON GRASSY AREAS IN
N EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT THE ROADS BECOMING SLICK IN SOME
PLACES AS IT HAS BEEN COOL AND THE SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. LIKEWISE...WE MAY SEE A "NUISANCE " WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PIKES PEAK REGION TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
CALIF STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ALOFT
INCREASES. 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THURSDAY...

BY 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF LAS
VEGAS. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AND SNOW
AND VALLEY SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE CENTER
OF THE MID LVL LOW WILL BE LOCATED VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS AND
DEEP S- SW FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME HEAVIER ACROSS THE S MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DEEP UPSLOPE
FLOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A THETA-E AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE OKLA PANHANDLE. THIS THETA-E AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE CAPE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WINTER STORM WATCHES GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON
TOMORROW...WITH WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO
COUNTY) AT 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

ACTIVE LONGER PATTERN ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS INCLUDING BUT NOT
LIMITED TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TIMES
AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION/HIGHER TERRAIN TIGHT GRADIENT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

RECENT LONGER RANGE PV ANALYSIS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 06Z FRIDAY WILL SHIFT ACROSS
COLORADO INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
WET CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

HAVE ISSUED/ADJUSTED/EXPANDED EARLIER WINTER STORM WATCH TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST PROJECTED TRACK/IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT EXPECTED
AROUND 7000 FEET...PRIMARILY FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ALSO...SOME STRONGER TO POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FRIDAY.

THEN...NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEXT CLOSED
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 00Z SUNDAY SHIFTS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY 00Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.

FINALLY...BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES) ARE ANTICIPATED INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY LOWER GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

INCOMING SYSTEM IS ALREADY SPREADING BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO WITH -SHRA OR VCSH POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AT KCOS INTO
THE MVFR THEN IFR CATEGORY BY 12Z. KPUB WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY BY 12Z.  THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN -SHRA FOR THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
KCOS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS -RA MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER THE
-SN AROUND 06Z FRI. KCOS COULD SEE SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KPUB WILL STAY
AS RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT. KALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR WITH -TSRA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MVFR TO IFR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH -SHSN. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR COZ058>061-066-068-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT


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