Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271916
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
116 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DECREASED SKY COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOADED IN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...WARMING CONTINUES...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE  NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES. REGIONAL RADARS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RR QUAD OF JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING...WITH CURRENT READINGS
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING...COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SILENT POPS IN TACT...AS SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THEY CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
TO MODERATE AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOUNDING DATA IS
INDICATING ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK AND SUSPECT ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED PRODUCING MAINLY VIRGA
AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN MTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA ON SAT WILL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF
THAT MOVES INTO ERN MT AND WY DURING THE DAY. THE WX ON SAT LOOKS
DRY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SAT...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S OVR THE SERN PLAINS...IN THE 70S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.

AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IT WILL SEND
A FRONT INTO SERN CO EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVR THE FAR
ERN PLAINS...THE WX LOOKS DRY SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ON SUN WILL BE COOLER. THE NAM AND GFS
ARE SHOWING SOME PCPN OVR THE SRN CO MTNS SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS IN THE FORECAST.

MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVR
THE STATE FROM THE NW AND IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PCPN COULD DEVELOP...
MAINLY OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK UPR RIDGE WILL BE OVR THE
AREA EARLY TUE BUT THEN AN UPR TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS THAT UPR
TROF MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE TUE NIGHT...IT WILL SEND A
FRONT INTO SERN CO AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EARLY WED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WED
AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND NR THE ERN MTNS COULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS. ON THU THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WHICH SPREADS
PCPN ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...WITH GENERALLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER COLORADO. HOWEVER...A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN APPROXIMATELY 21Z-03Z. DESPITE SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...GENERALLY VFR
ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...LW



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