Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 212336
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
536 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

BLENDED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AREAS...HOWEVER RADAR HAS
REMAINED RELATIVELY QUIET OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.  A COUPLE OF
ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND HIGH-
RES MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS PRETTY WELL.  TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
MOUNTAIN REGIONS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE AREAS.  LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP EVERYTHING DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WITH WEAKENING AROUND SUNSET.  LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN ITS
TRACK NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A VORT MAX
CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  THE LATEST NAM...ALONG WITH THE CSU WRF AND
LATEST RAP...HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND TRACKING
IT NORTHEAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE...AND HELP KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER TELLER INTO
EL PASO COUNTY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES OUT OF ARIZONA.

FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.  THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER
ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY THE EVENING HOURS.  THE
SURFACE LOW OVER OUR EASTERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TO
NEAR BURLINGTON COLORADO.  MODELS ADVECTING MOISTURE SOUTHWARD
BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL LOW AND STRONG CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG A
BOUNDARY...FROM THE LOW LEVEL LOW...SOUTHWEST TOWARD TRINIDAD.  THE
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY THINKING WE
MAY BE A BIT STABLE DUE TO CLOUDS...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  IF THE LOWER LEVEL
LOW SETS UP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SHEAR AROUND
35 KTS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.  AS FAR AS
PROGRESSION...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND RAPIDLY
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING...SPREADING EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS.  FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE AREA BURN SCARS
AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...WHILE AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER MAY SEE
LOWER 90S. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

AREA SHOULD SEE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FRI EVENING
AS REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW MOVE OVERHEAD AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT LURKS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. BEST FORCING
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO KS/NE AFTER 06Z...LEAVING SOME ISOLATED
TSRA LINGERING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS
06Z-12Z. ON SAT...UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SHIFTS
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EVENING...WITH FAIRLY
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. IN GENERAL...SHOULD
SEE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TEND TO SUPPRESS MOST TSRA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS. CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS...AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN
ROCKIES TROUGH ROTATE INTO NRN CO LATE SAT AFTERNOON. DEEPER
MIXING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGF VERSUS
FRI MAXES...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT NIGHT/SUN...AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT...LEAVING RATHER LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT ANOTHER DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION MOST
AREAS...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED WEAK MOUNTAIN TSRA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY MINOR COOLING OF MAX TEMPS SUN...AS 700 MB
COLD ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY FULL SUN AND MIXING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS SUN EVENING...AND
WITH SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OK PANHANDLE...EASTERN PLAINS MAY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.

NEW JET ENERGY DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WESTERN U.S. TROUGH DEEPENING ONCE AGAIN. PATTERN
SHOULD KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA
MON...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA TO DEVELOP MON
AFTERNOON. OVER THE PLAINS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY SHIFT BEST THREAT OF CONVECTION
INTO NERN CO BY LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FRONT THEN SHIFTS
BACK SOUTH TUE AS NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MOST AREAS TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOUNTAINS THEN LOOK FAIRLY DRY WED/THU...WHILE
EAST SLOPES AND PLAINS SEE DIURNAL TSRA CHANCES CONTINUE AS
CIRCULATION AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S PUSHES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD. TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL
STAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF SEASONAL VALUES...WARMEST DAY LIKELY
MON/COOLEST MAXES ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD
NOT IMPACT KALS OR KPUB. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCOS...WHERE
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE RAMPART RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
MOVE NEAR THE TERMINAL. MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE...WITH
KCOS SEEING ITS BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 02-08Z
TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
REGION.  MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING WITH CIGS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS DOWN TO ABOUT 6 KFT OR
LOWER HEADING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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