Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191032
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
432 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA WL BE FLATTENED BY AN UPR TROF MOVING
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES TODAY. FORECAST
MODELS ARE KEEPING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WL BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA TODAY FOR SOME AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...WITH THE SERN PLAINS REMAINING DRY.  WARM AIR WL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY AND HIGH TEMPS WL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

PCPN IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.  THE NAM AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVEL MSTR MOVING INTO THE FAR SERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WL
GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THAT AREA...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM ODILE REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. A PASSING UPPER TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SENDS A WEAK FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE BANKED UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LATE SUMMER SUNSHINE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR THE
EASTERN MTS. LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO PEG THE PIKES PEAK REGION
WITH ABUNDANT QPF SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH MAY BE A TAD OVERDONE
WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S LEADING TO THE INCREASED CONVECTION.
AT ANY RATE...WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN
PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
AREA BURN SCARS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...WHICH
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
STATE IS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS INDICATE INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO BECOMES
ENTRAINED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING GREAT BASIN SYSTEM...TO
LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED
LEE TROUGHING. WITH THE INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...WITH SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND EXPECTED AS UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS WEST COAST BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28


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