Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181748
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SKY COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WAS
OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE OVER COLORADO...AS ONLY SOME MID LEVEL
RADAR RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER THE AREA AS OF 0930Z. AS WAVE PASSES
OVER COLORADO TODAY...ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY
-SHRA/WEAK -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY SANGRES AND
SAN JUANS WHERE LIFT IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF I-
25 WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AS REMNANT CONVECTION DRIFTS OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY MOSTLY DRY AS
INSTABILITY IS LACKING. CLOUDS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT AS MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER WAVE
DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...THOUGH NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
REFIRE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 06Z.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MIN TEMPS LITTLE CHANGED FROM
SAT MORNING READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED. WX PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE WEEK AND BEYOND. THANKS TO EL NINO AND
THE PERSISTENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENT...A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE WRN U.S...
WHILE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES UNDERCUT THE RIDGE.

A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
SRN AZ AND NM THIS WEEKEND...AND COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE
FROM A FRONTAL SURGE ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW AND SRN MTS.
CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP FOR THE ERN PLAINS LOOKS PRETTY LOW.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY ON WED.
THE TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THE IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
A SHOT OF SOME PRECIP FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES QUICKLY INTO KS BY WED EVE...AND
LEAVES UP WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY THU MORNING.

THE END OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND LOOKS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SW. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LIMITED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO MID
AND HIGH LEVELS. LOW LEVELS PRETTY DRY. SO...MAIN IMPACT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS PLAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONLY
VERY SPOTTY ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. SPOTTY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD BE ENCOUNTERED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD
REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW


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