Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 282121
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...COOLER WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF STORMS...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH
A BROAD UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME.

AT THE SFC...THIS MORNINGS PASSING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH BREEZY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
FURTHER WEST...TEMPS ARE RUNNING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. REGIONAL
RADARS ONLY INDICATING A FEW ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS WITH A
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS
UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND UPPER HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...OWNING TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND DEVELOPING INTO
AN MCS ROLLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAVE KEPT THE BEST
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...HAVE KEPT
ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL WAA...TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW SHOULD
LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH STORMS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MTS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOONAL PLUME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...COOLEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW SOUTHERLY TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE
AT THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADVECT 50 AND LOWER 60
DEW POINTS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST CO.  WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO WILL GET SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING FORCING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER SEVERAL OF THE SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WED NIGHT NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM/TX
PANHANDLE WHICH MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THERE IS SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO KEEP AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE RATON
RIDGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS
MORNING...BUT HUNCH IS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BE FARTHER SOUTH
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN
US...WHICH PUTS CO UNDER A MORE NW FLOW COMPONENT ALOFT. STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...WITH 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MTS/SAN LUIS VALLEY. BUT RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
REALLY CUTS BACK ON CAPE VALUES...AND APPEARS TRAJECTORY FOR ANY
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME MAY SHIFT OFF
TO THE WEST...ACROSS AZ/NM. SO THURS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES...WITH GREATEST POPS
ACROSS THE SE MTS...AND SRN SECTIONS OF THE DISTRICT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT...AS SHEAR LOOKS
TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY LOOKS A TAD MORE ACTIVE NOW FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE 4 CORNERS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...0-6KM SHEAR VALUES LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK...AND
CAPE REMAINS BELOW 1000 J/KG...SO MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ALOFT.  SFC DEW POINTS
START TO FALL OFF WITH AFTERNOON MIXING ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS. EVENTUALLY ANOTHER UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN CO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MONSOON
MOISTURE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST.
GFS SUGGESTS ANOTHER FRONT MAY DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY...INCREASING POPS FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS AS WELL. ECMWF
LOOKS A TOUCH SLOWER THAN GFS...BUT WILL START TO TREND DOWN MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR NEXT TUES. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT...AND WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW


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