Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
403 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Broad upper trough over the area today, with additional energy
dropping into the Great Basin this afternoon poised to swing
eastward toward the state tonight. Mid level moisture remains in
place over the mountains, while easterly upslope flow continues
today/tonight over the plains. Ingredients are thus in place for
another round of showers and thunderstorms most locations, with
eastern mountains looking most favored for activity, while eastern
plains may stay dry much of the day before mountain storms push
eastward this evening. Instability (CAPEs around 1000 J/KG) and
0-6km shear (25-35 kts) look a little higher than the past few days
over the eastern mountains and I25 corridor, so wouldn`t be
surprised if storms today are slightly stronger and longer lasting,
with a few clusters of stronger storms pushing across the plains in
the evening. Main storm threat will still be pockets of locally
heavy rainfall, though hail/wind threat will be higher today as
well. With upward motion continuing across the region overnight as
wave comes east out of the Great Basin, while keep sct pops for tsra
going past midnight, with most models hinting at precip persisting
through sunrise Fri, especially along the Continental Divide. Air
mass will remain fairly cool another day, with high temps similar to
Wed at many locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

...Stronger storms on Friday...
...Warming up and drying out next week...

No big changes to the extended portion of the forecast. The trough
over the Rockies will continue to bring us unsettled conditions
through the early part of the weekend...then expect a gradual drying
and warming trend as high pressure builds from the west.

Friday looks to have the best potential for stronger convection, as
the strongest short wave moves through Ern CO. Early morning
convection should move ewd into KS, then expect a second round of
more robust convection to develop over the mountains and spread Ewd
over the I-25 corridor and Plains by late afternoon to early evening.
Latest NAM runs show as much as 1500 j/kg CAPE and 30-35 kts bulk
shear over the Plains Fri afternoon. This could lead to some storm
organization and the threat for a marginally svr storm of two east
of I-25. Flash flooding will also continue to be a threat, but
decent storm movement should mitigate that to some extent. Temps
over the Plains will slowly be rebounding into the low to mid 80s
for Fri, and possibly into the mid-uppr 80s by Sat.

Over the weekend, best forcing will shift east of our area, but weak
PVA along with residual low lvl moisture will keep isold-sct chances
of storms going over much of our area by the afternoon. Best chance
on Saturday appears to be over the Raton Mesa and SE Plains along
with the Ern Mts. By Sunday, the better moisture and weak forcing
will lie over the Srn portion of our CWA.

High pressure will gradually build from our west next week. H7 temps
slowly climb through the period, reaching 15-16 degrees C by the
latter part of the week. Along with drier air moving in from the SW
with SW flow aloft, expect temps over the Plains to slowly climb
back into the 90s through the week, maybe even the mid 90s by Wed-
Friday. Precip chances will drop, with only ISOLD mtn convection
expected for the latter part of the week. Rose


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

TAF sites will remain generally VFR this morning, with some patchy
MVFR stratus just north of KCOS for a brief period around 12z-14z.
Tsra will develop over the mountains around 18z, with storms moving
to lower elevations after 20z-21z. Will carry VCTS all taf sites
this afternoon into the evening, with vcsh lingering through much of
the night as precip will be slow to end. Could see some stronger
storms around KCOS late this afternoon, with a threat of at least
some small hail at the terminal. Over the mountains, peaks and
passes have cleared in spots this morning, though MVFR stratus
lingers across the upper Arkansas Valley as of 10z. Once convection
develops by late morning, most higher terrain will become obscured
during the afternoon, with low cigs and -shra/-tsra persisting
through the night.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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