Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180453
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1053 PM MDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue May 17 2016

...Cool and unsettled weather to continue...

Currently...

Skies were cloudy across the plains and mostly cloudy across the
higher trrn. over the plains and eastern mtns it was quite cool with
isold showers mainly  along the I-25 corridor region. over the
mtns...the atmosphere was unstable and scattered showers and
thunderstorms were occurring. Temps across the plains were in the
40s to L50s while temps were approaching 60 in the San Luis Valley.
mtns were still cold with temps about freezing at the highest
elevations.

On the large scale...an broad upper low was spinning across the Las
Vegas region...with several weak disturbances rotating around this
mid lvl low.

Rest of today and into tonight...

Upper low will drop slowly southeast and be located over central AZ
by sunrise tomorrow. this will keep scattered to numerous showers
and isold tsra going across the higher terrain...especially the sw
mtn region and Sangres. upslope flow will continue across the Plains
and it will remain cloudy throughout the night. temps tonight across
the Plains will generally be in the U30s to L40s...with 20s and 30s
in the mtns.

Given the mstr over the region and the track of the upper
low...accum snow will continue across the mtns and several more
inches of snow are likely...especially across the sw mtn region.

Tomorrow...

Upper low will move slowly east and should be located over s NM by
tomorrow afternoon. Although it will be warmer than today by about
10F across the plains...it will still be quite cool as upslope flow
with lots of clouds should prevail across the lower elevations
throughout the day tomorrow. The far east Plains will likely be too
cool for any precip but areas in and along the I-25 corridor will
see scattered showers once again. over the mtns...especially the sw
mtns and s Sangres...scattered to numerous showers and isold
thunderstorms will continue. Accumulating snow will be
possible...especially across the highest elevations of the sw mtns.

As for temps...expect 50s to around 60F on the plains...with mainly
50s across the valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue May 17 2016

.Wednesday night and Thursday...Cutoff low over Arizona becomes an
open wave and moves across northern New Mexico on Thursday.
Anticipate showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday
evening as some weak lift passes over the region. On Thursday, the
air aloft will remain cool and surface heating will ignite
thunderstorms. The afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
most favored over the mountains, Best low level moisture will stay
south of the region and expect mostly light rain from any storms.
Warming trend will continue on Thursday as cooler air continues moving
eastward.

.Friday through Sunday...Strong upper trough moves into the
Pacific northwest. Southwest flow aloft ahead of the system will
advect warmer and drier air into the region. Temperatures will
warm well into the 80s on the plains by Saturday. There may be
enough residual moisture for some diurnally driven storms to
develop, especially over the mountains. Will also have to watch
for the dry line being near the Kansas and Colorado border, which
could result in some storms near the border. Currently, guidance
wants to keep the dry line east of colorado. GFS and EC have a
disturbance passing over the state Sunday. With limited moisture
do not anticipate much of an increase in PoPs. The disturbance can
enhance convection along the dry line, but current guidance
continues to have the dry line in Kansas.

.Monday and Tuesday...Flow aloft becomes more westerly. Current
guidance suggest the lower levels will remain dry, and any
convection will mostly be limited to the mountains. Temperatures
aloft will cool a couple degrees, but temperatures near or above
seasonal values are still anticipated. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Tue May 17 2016

Risk of showers will be lower over the next 24 hours...with most
of the precip staying over the mountains and higher terrain.
TAF sites should remain primarily MVFR with stratus persisting
through the morning hours. Brief IFR cannot be ruled out
especially at KCOS early in the morning. Then...expect gradual
improvement to VFR through early Wed evening. wins will continue
to be relatively light and southeasterly over the plains,
southerly over the San Luis Valley. Freezing levels rising to
around 5K feet AGL during the afternoon. Rose

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT Wednesday night for
COZ066-068-073-075.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE



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