Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221102
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
502 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO WILL BRING FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...

UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN AZ IS FORECAST TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...AS THE KICKER SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ALREADY HAVE A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE FIRST UPPER
JET LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL TO
SHIFT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SYSTEM. SO FAR...RAINFALL RATES OUT WEST DO NOT LOOK HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERNS FOR THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR...BUT THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE MORNING.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROF LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING PEAK HEATING PERIOD.  SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CO IS
PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. VARIOUS SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD TO ALONG A LINE FROM
COLORADO SPRINGS TO EADS AS OF 21Z.  DEPENDING ON SFC DEW
POINTS...CAPES COULD BE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 1000 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG
TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH NEXT UPPER JET SHIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...COULD SEE DEEP LAYER SHEARS 40KTS...ESP
WHERE LOW LEVEL SFC WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY.  SEEMS BEST THREAT AREA
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST EL PASO AND KIOWA
COUNTIES...AND POINTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RES AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN STORM THREATS.  QUESTION IS...WILL THUNDERSTORMS BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN
SCARS. STORM MOTIONS TODAY WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30-
35 MPH...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THIS THREAT SOME.  HOWEVER THE WALDO
BURN SCAR WITH ITS VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLD LOOKS TO MOST
UNDER THE THREAT TODAY.  IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE...WE
COULD SEE CAPES OF NEAR 1000 J/KG (WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S).  IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THIS REGION AND
STALLS...THEN THIS COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT ALL IN AGREEMENT OF
WHERE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.  06Z NAM12 IS THE
HEAVIEST HANDED WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH FALLING ACROSS
NORTHERN EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES DURING THE NOON TO 6 PM TIME
FRAME.  HOWEVER RAP13...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL KEEP PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MUCH LIGHTER AROUND .25 TO CLOSE TO .50...AND ALL MODELS
SEEM TO POINT AT THE QPF MAXIMUM OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
GIVEN THE CURRENT STORM TRACK. STILL CONTEMPLATING ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR WALDO BURN SCAR TODAY.  SOME FACTORS THAT FAVOR
FLASH FLOODING TODAY FOR THE WALDO WOULD BE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATERS...GOOD FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND EVEN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE BEFORE 00Z.  SOME FACTORS THAT DO
NOT PARTICULARLY FAVOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WALDO INCLUDE FAST
STORM MOTIONS...EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER...WARMING H5
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW TODAY...AND QUICK SHIFT TO A
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY 00Z AS SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA.  WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR RESOLVE SOME OF
THESE MESOSCALE DETAILS BEFORE COMMITTING TO A WATCH.  AM CONFIDENT
THAT SOMEWHERE CLOSE BY...LIKELY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BURN
SCAR...QPF AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN ON
WALDO TO GO WITH A WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS THROUGH THE MORNING AND MAY HOIST A WATCH AS DETAILS BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. REGARDLESS...ANYONE IN OR NEAR THE BURN SCARS TODAY
NEEDS TO MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OF THE WEATHER TODAY.
TIMEFRAME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN NOON AND 6
PM.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE PAST MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDE
POPS...TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...A NORTHERLY SURGE IS PROJECTED TO PUSH ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS AT TIMES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY(ESPECIALLY IF
THE LATEST VERSION OF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT) WITH SOME DRYING
THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF LATE AUGUST CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
DURING THE LONGER WHILE GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES(PRIMARILY OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS) FROM SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP ERRATIC
GUSTY NORTH WINDS GUSTY ACROSS THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS THIS
MORNING.  WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS TO KALS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AROUND 18Z...AND MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS AFFECTING THE
KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS AFTER 19-20Z. THE MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY
WILL BE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA...SOME BRIEF SMALL
HAIL...AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM KCOS TO EADS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS OR BETTER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WITH -TSRA THREAT ENDING FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS BY 00Z-01Z.
 -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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