Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Issued at 1037 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Updated short term grids based on radar and higher res model
trends. Still anticipate scattered to numerous storms over and
near the higher terrain this afternoon and evening, but still not
sure how far east storm will make it across the I-25 corridor.
Starting to see some stratus develop across the lower eastern
slopes of the the Pikes Peak region, which would tend to support
less storms for the COS area. At any rate, best coverage will
remain over the higher terrain, with the main threat from storms
once again being locally heavy rainfall and the threat of flash
flooding, especially over area burns scars, including but not
limited to the Waldo, Hayden Pass and Junkins scars.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Updated short term forecasts to reflect ongoing areas of fog
across parts of southern Colorado.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Still Ongoing Precipitation Across the Plains this Morning...

MCS precipitation continues across the plains this morning.  Rates
are surprisingly high.  Airmass is a bit subtropical with mixed drop
size distribution, resulting in general underestimation of
precipitation rates/amounts by radar.  So, some of the radar returns
that look rather innocuous are not so innocuous.  Ongoing MCS
precipitation will continue for a while this morning, gradually
shifting south and fading with time.  All the clouds and
precipitation left behind by the MCS will leave behind a more stable
airmass across the plains today.  This should result in considerably
less afternoon precipitation across most of the plains. A little
more questionable from the mountains westward, though, as there will
likely be less stabilization in those areas and more opportunities
for lifting through terrain forcing.  So, in general, would expect
another round of afternoon and evening storms to develop over and
near the mountain areas today, with just isolated activity out east
across the plains.  And by isolated activity out across the plains,
I`m referring to this afternoon, following the departure of this
morning`s more widespread rain.  As far as available moisture,
nothing has really changed since yesterday. Blended Total
Precipitable Water values remain high, currently showing up at 140
to 180 percent of average across southern Colorado.  Low level
moisture remains equally impressive with 60s widespread across the
lower elevations and 50s across the high valleys.  It`s just a
matter of getting enough forcing to overcome any stability issues
and realize the moisture that is available for precipitation.  Any
storms that develop today will again be heavy rainers capable of
flash flooding, particularly over burn scar areas, urban areas and
over any areas that got pounded from storms yesterday through this
morning.  Other storm concerns will include lightning, strong gusty
outflow winds and possibly some spots of hail too.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Won`t try to get too fancy on the details because each day`s
convective patterns will be strongly influenced by the previous
day`s patterns. Models are all over the place trying to peg the
timing and location of precipitation maxima over the next
several days. Currently, most models agree on a couple of less
active (more stable) days across the plains while areas in and
near the mountains remain active. Then, they have it turning
more active across the plains again on Saturday and Sunday,
followed by a down day on the plains Monday and then another
active day Tuesday. In any event, the mountains remain active
right on through the entire period. Timing the location and
intensity of each day`s precipitation through the extended
forecast period would tend to be fruitless.  However, what
can be said is that the monsoon doesn`t appear to be going
anywhere anytime soon. Models all agree on keeping a moist
monsoon flow and light steering winds across the region for
the next several days. Heavy rain and flash flooding will
continue to be the main concerns. Burn scars, urban areas and
locations saturated from previous days rains will continue to
be the main targets.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Monsoonal moisture is intact for the region, but the primary
threat for thunderstorms will remain over the mountains. ALS has
VCTS in the TAF for the later evening hours, and if a storm
develops, expect gusty variable winds. COS could experience MVFR
conditions if the cloud ceilings lower further, hence the tempo
group through 22Z. Outside of the early afternoon, COS should
remain in VFR, and PUB should remain in VFR throughout the
forecast period.




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