Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291628
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1028 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Updated forecast to take down the Winter Weather Advisory for
eastern Las Animas county where temperatures have stayed too warm
for snow to accumulate. All other advisories and warnings look on
track to come down at Noon.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 446 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

...Still Some Heavy Snow for the Southern Mountains this Morning...

Large upper low pressure system is spinning over the Texas Panhandle
this morning.  It will track across the Oklahoma Panhandle into
Kansas today.  This track will continue wrapping precipitation, rain
and snow, back into the southeast mountains and plains through the
morning before pulling east across the plains through the afternoon.

Snowfall didn`t work out so well for the Pikes Peak Region.  Storm
was just a bit too warm and the main initial precipitation, with
embedded convection, remained mainly south and east of the immediate
Pikes Peak Region during the evening hours.  This held the better
precip totals to the south of Teller and El Paso Counties.  Still
some light snow expected across Teller and northern El Paso Counties
for a few more hours this morning but then winding down and ending
this afternoon.

The southern mountain areas, south and west of Pueblo and adjacent
to the southern I-25 corridor, continue to be the target for the
most snowfall with this storm.  Persistent precipitation has been
covering these areas through the night and this will continue
through the morning hours before everything decreases and shifts
east during the afternoon.  Storm totals over the southern mountain
areas should be in the 6-12 inch range with possible local amounts
up to 2 feet above 8 to 9 thousand feet where water/snow ratios have
likely been better for snow accumulation.

There could still be some wet snow mixing in down to about 5,000
feet this morning but little or no accumulation expected.  As north
winds on the back side of the storm have increased, this has brought
some cooler, drier air down from the north.  This has lowered wet
bulb temperatures and allowed precipitation to cool the air more
effectively.  As an example, last evening around midnight, when
winds were still moist and from the east, light rain was falling at
KPUB with a temperature of 42 and a dewpoint of 40.  Now, with
cooler, drier northwest winds, light rain is falling but the
temperature is 38 and the dewpoint is down to 35.  If the wet bulb
temperature drops just a bit more, we could start to see some wet
snow mixing in around Pueblo.  The problem is, the air is starting
to dry out and precipitation will be winding down soon.

After the precipitation winds down along and near the mountains
later this morning, rain will continue to work east across the
plains through most of the afternoon.  Parts of the far eastern
plains along the Kansas border saw some decent convective
precipitation yesterday afternoon. Hopefully those areas of the
plains that missed out on precipitation yesterday, will see some
beneficial rain from the precip yet to work across the area today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 446 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

...Another Spring Storm System could bring significant precipitation
to the area Friday and Saturday...

The latest model runs of the NAM, GFS, ECMWF and Canadian are in
remarkable agreement with the next storm system affecting the area
later Thursday through the day Saturday, even though the system is
just now starting to move onshore across the Pac Northwest Coast.
The projected movement of the this system could bring significant
snowfall to much of the higher terrain, especially to the Eastern
Mountains and immediate adjacent plains from Friday afternoon
through the day Saturday, if current model solutions are a "perfect
prog". Time will tell with uncertainty in the exact track of this
system, though people should stay tuned to the latest forecasts
regarding the significant snowfall potential for late this week
into the early weekend.

At any rate, should see warmer and drier weather across the area
through most of the day Thursday, as upper ridging builds across the
state. Will see increasing clouds through the day with increasing
chances of light warm advection snowfall to the higher terrain along
the ContDvd Thursday afternoon and evening, as the system digs into
the Great Basin.

Models then develop a closed low across the Four Corners Region
early Friday morning, with this upper low currently projected to
slowly move east across Northern New Mexico through the day Saturday
before sliding south and east into Western Texas through Saturday
night. Again, this projected path would bring strong upglide and
upslope flow for the potential of significant rain and higher
terrain snowfall to much of south central and southeast Colorado
Friday and Saturday, though it remains too early to give specific
snow levels and amounts at this time. There could also be a few
thunderstorms across the area Friday afternoon.

Warmer and drier weather expected on Sunday into early Monday before
another system takes aim on the Rockies as our unsettled weather
pattern continues into early April.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 446 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Current storm will continue to bring widespread MVFR, IFR and LIFR
conditions to areas along and near the mountains this morning.  This
afternoon, precipitation will wind down from the I-25 corridor
westward with flight conditions improving to VFR.  This includes the
KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites.

Rain showers will continue across the far eastern plains through the
afternoon with areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR flight conditions
continuing in precipitation.

VFR expected to return to all areas tonight.  Will have to watch
KALS for possible ground fog formation overnight as recent
precipitation and light winds could lead to saturation.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ078-087-088.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for COZ072>075-079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW


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