Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241711
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1011 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

...Cool with gusty northwest winds Today...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate a broad upper trough translating across the state with
trough axis moving across South Central Colorado at this time. Radar
data indicating a few minor snow bands lifting out across the I-25
Corridor at this time, with GOES16 imagery and surface observations
indicating stratus and areas of freezing fog across most of the
Southeast plains within a light upslope regime. Observations have
also indicating some light freezing precipitation at times across
the far Southeast Plains through the early morning hours.

Today...Upper trough continues to lift out across the Eastern
Colorado and into Western Kansas through the late morning, with
rapid clearing of precipitation, clouds and fog from west to east
expected across Eastern Colorado with subsidence and increasing
downslope flow behind the trough. Moderate to strong northwest
orographic flow behind the system will keep light snow showers
across the Central Mountains through the morning, with showers
expected to diminish into the afternoon. The breezy to windy
northwest winds of 20 to 40 mph through the afternoon will bring
areas of blowing snow across the high mountain passes, along with
elevated fire danger to the Eastern Plains. Temperatures today will
be below seasonal averages, with 30s to lower 40s across the lower
elevations, teens and 20s across the higher terrain and only in the
single digits at the peaks.

Tonight...Northwesterly flow aloft moderates and becomes more
westerly as another embedded wave translates across the Northern
Great Basin. This will allow for increasing chances of snow along
the ContDvd through the evening, with snow showers likely overnight.
Quick movement of the system will limit snow across the Divide, with
2 to 5 inches possible into early Sunday morning. Overnight lows
will be on the chilly side, mainly in the single digits to teens
areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Progressive upper trof will move across CO on Sunday with generally
light snow showers through the morning along the Continental
Divide...tapering off during the afternoon. Additional accumulations
of an inch or two will be possible across the eastern
Sawatch/western Mosquitos, La Garitas, eastern San Juans and
higher peaks of the Sangre De Cristo mountains. With the upper
trof passage, westerly winds will spread into the plains which
will help temperatures climb into the 40s in spite of H7
temperatures around - 10C aloft. Mountains and valleys will remain
cold with temperatures in the 30s...with a mix of teens and 20s
for the mountains.

A period of dry weather will return for a couple days as the next
upper trof/closed low takes shape over the western U.S. Models
are in fairly good agreement with a closed upper low developing
along the southern CA coast by Tuesday morning, which advances
eastward at various speeds Tuesday night into Wednesday. Monday
and Tuesday will be characterized by increasing southwest flow
over the state which will bring a return of breezy and warm
conditions with high temperatures hitting the 50s and lower 60s
across the lower elevations...40s to lower 50s for the
valleys...and 20s and 30s for the mountains. With very dry surface
dew points, conditions will be hitting critical fire weather
conditions across portions of the plains Monday afternoon and
potentially again Tuesday...however a cold front will move in
during the afternoon which may limit potential to the far southern
areas of the plains.

Snow chances start to ramp up along the Continental Divide Tuesday
night, spreading eastward across the area through Wednesday.  Models
differ significantly with the evolution of the system with GFS and
Canadian taking the upper trof quickly through NM/AZ Tuesday
night before lifting it northeastward towards the TX
panhandle/western KS and extreme SE CO by Wed Afternoon. EC keeps
this system closed off across southern AZ/northern old Mexico
before propagating it eastward across southern NM into central TX
by mid day Thursday. Given the model spreads and lower than
average confidence, kept the consensus blends for now. Of course
the ECMWF much farther south solution portrays a drier forecast
than GFS and Canadian. Will maintain some isolated to scattered
pops for now until models come into better alignment. Drier
weather returns for late week with another warming trend...then
another system may glance by to the north Friday into next
weekend. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1010 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Synopsis:

A brief period of dry northwesterly during the day, but another
upper level trough begins to move over the region. Overall, impacts
for this time period will be mainly gusting winds.

KALS: Gusty west to northwest winds expected during the afternoon
hours, slowing down in the evening. VFR conditions expected
throughout the forecast period.

KCOS and KPUB: Gusting winds during the early afternoon hours, but
the winds will become light and variable as the evening progresses.
A few mid level clouds form during the overnight hours, but overall
VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Skelly
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...SKELLY


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