Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017


At 3 am, few showers were noted over the southern tier of the cwa
mainly extending from KTAD west to across the s parts of the San
Juans. Over the remainder of the region it was likely dry. Some
patchy low clouds were noted over a few parts of the region, mainly
east and northeast of Pueblo and down across eastern Las Animas
counties. These low clouds were associated with an outflow boundary
from much earlier convection. A band of cirrus was noted over the
southern half of the cwa.


A more typical August day weather-wise is expected across the area
today. Storms will be scattered in the mountains and isolated on the
plains by mid to late afternoon. No severe convection is anticipated
at this time, as storms will be more "garden variety" due to lack of
forcing, CAPE and shear. Isolated storms will likely begin over the
plains by as early as 2 pm, with the development likely tied to the
remnant outflow boundary moving across the plains at 3 am. Storms
over the mtns will likely be most numerous over the mtns/plains
interface as somewhat drier air is noted over the interior mtns.
Areas west of KTAD and the Pikes Peak region will likely see the
overall best chance of precip today.


Some isolated pops will linger across all of the region this evening
as guidance indicates a few showers/storms possibly lasting along
the i-25 corridor into the early morning hours. Otherwise skies will
be mostly clear.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.Tuesday...Disturbance will move across eastern Colorado during
the day with a lee trough developing over the plains. Main
challenge will be timing of the system and location of the lee
trough during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the lee trough,
CAPEs will be over 1500 J/kg with sufficient shear for severe
weather. SPC day 2 outlook has the slight risk over the extreme
eastern portions of Kiowa and Prowers Counties with the marginal
risk extending as far west as La Junta. Current model solutions
has the higher instability mostly in Kansas, agreeing with the
SPC day 2 outlook. Still anticipating some diurnal convection over
the mountains and I25 corridor, but CAPEs will be modest.

.Wednesday...Another trough passes over the state during the day.
Timing of the trough is one factor for the development of
convection. The GFS and EC have the trough passing over the
region during the morning hours, which would put Colorado in
general subsidence during the afternoon. The subsidence could help
cap the lower layers hampering thunderstorm development. In
addition, models are not too excited about advecting moisture
westward over the plains during the day. Like superblend PoPs with
generally isolated to lower scattered PoPs. Drier mid level air
will also limit convection over the Continental divide region.

.Thursday through Sunday...Trough gradually develops over the
Pacific northwest with the upper ridge gradually transitioning to
over Colorado. During this transition, the timing and strength of
features will be tough to determine. General trend is to have
upslope flow on the plains Thursday with northwest flow aloft and
embedded disturbances. Will have to watch for possibility of
stronger storms on the plains if enough low level moisture can
move westward. Over the weekend, lee trough will develop tending
to keep the deep moisture east of the area. The monsoon plume may
return to the mountains for modest increase in diurnal convection.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Another round of thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
this afternoon and drift eastward into the adjacent lower
elevations. While coverage of thunderstorms at the terminals will
be quite a bit less than past few days, gusty outflow winds may
still affect these sites as storms move off the mountains. KCOS
will see the best chance for VCTS and will carry a tempo group
there for gusty winds associated with these. KALS and KPUB will
carry a prevailing wind group around 22-23z which tries to capture
the most likely outflow wind direction. This period will be prone
to change as storm track and trends become more obvious. Otherwise
winds will become light again overnight with speeds under 10 kts
with VFR conditions returning. -KT




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