Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 172109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
309 PM MDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed May 17 2017

The next storm system to affect the area is currently centered over
northwest UT.  This system is expected to become centered over the
CO and UT border area by midmorning Thu, and then is forecast to
move slowly eastward thru western CO during the day.

As of 2 PM web cams are showing lowers clouds and pcpn over the mtns
areas above Wolf Creek and Monarch passes.  This evening the pcpn
chances will increase over the Continental Divide and with temps
cooling, snow levels will lower and snow will continue through the
night with a few inches of accumulation expected.  Pcpn is also
expected to spread to portions of the eastern mtns later tonight,
mainly over the Pikes Peak and Teller county areas, Waugh Mtn area
and the northern Sangre de Cristos.  Portions of the San Luis Valley
will also probably see some scattered pcpn.  Snow amounts over the
Pikes Peak and Teller county area are a little uncertain, but Pikes
Peak could see around 5 inches overnight, while in Teller county
snow amounts of a trace to around 2 inches on grassy and elevated
surfaces.  Late tonight low level mstr will back into the southeast
plains as relatively strong low level upslope develops in areas
mainly north of highway 50.  The low level mstr wl lead to low
stratus and possibly some areas of fog and maybe some light
drizzle/rain, especially in western portions of El Paso county.

On Thu the GFS and ECMWF are a little farther south with the low
than the NAM, and as a result the heavier pcpn is a bit farther
south than the NAM.  However, the central CO mtns, the Pikes Peak,
Teller county and El Paso county areas are expected to see the most
pcpn, with southern areas of the plains and the southern Sangres,
probably not seeing a whole lot. The low clouds over mostly northern
portions of the plains, are expected to hang around into the
afternoon hours which will keep temps on the cool side.  If the GFS
is correct with its higher pcpn amounts in the morning hours, there
could be several inches of snow on Pikes Peak and higher elevations
of Teller county. Several inches of snow are expected over the  Then
in the afternoon as temps warm a little, there should be little if
any snow in most of Teller county, but Pikes Peak should see
additional accumulations. For the San Luis Valley and southwest
mtns, the NAM shows only isold to maybe scattered pcpn in the
morning and afternoon hours.  On the other hand, the GFS shows
better chances for pcpn thru the day in the San Luis Valley and
southwest mtns.

We already have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for mostly above
10000 feet along the Continental Divide beginning at 6 PM this
evening and going through 00Z Sat, and this still looks reasonable,
although the latest model runs are indicating that the southwest
mountains may not need to be in the advisory for quite that long.
With this being a late season snow event for Teller county, have
decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory that area beginning at
midnight tonight and continuing through 6 PM Sat.  There is expected
to be a lull in the snow from late Thu morning through Thu afternoon
in Teller county with pcpn changing over to rain at the lower
elevations of the county, but then temps cool quickly in the evening
and it all changes over to snow again.  Have also decided to issue a
Winter Storm Warning for Pikes Peak from midnight tonight through 6
PM Sat as one to two feet of snow is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed May 17 2017

Thursday night through Saturday...Models agree on placing the upper
low over the UT/CO border Thu night, then tracking the system
directly over the state through the day Fri with more of an emphasis
over the northern portions of the state. On Sat the system weakens
slightly as it ejects to the north-northeast across NE and the
Dakotas. This latest solution places the system a bit further to the
north, which will affect pcpn type, location and intensity. Ongoing
winter weather highlights look good through the day Friday, with
the focus remaining over the Central mts and the Pikes Peak region.
The southwest mts, though including in the ongoing advisory, look
like they may wind down early with this latest solution, but will
maintain the highlight. Also, there is a shot for some snow over the
Palmer Divide specifically affecting Monument Hill and I-25 for the
Friday morning commute, so plan accordingly.

with the system passing directly overhead, amounts and timing are
both difficult to predict. It is expected to be very unstable, and
there will be the chance for strong storms across the far eastern
plains Thu night. As for temps, look for max temps in the 50s and
60s for most areas both days, though highs over northern El Paso
County as well as the highlight areas may only climb into the 20s to
lower 30s.

Sunday through Wednesday...As the system exits the region, long
range models want to keep Colorado under active northwest flow, with
multiple shortwaves crossing the region. There will be a nearly
constant threat of at least isolated convection over the higher
terrain and adjacent plains each day. Temps will climb into the 60s
to lower 70s each day. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed May 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS this evening.
After midnight, KCOS and KPUB will see low stratus move into the
area along with the potential for some rain and fog which is
expected to continue into the afternoon.  KALS is expected to have
VFR conditions the next 24 hrs, but may see some showers in the
vicinity, especially later tonight through Thu.


Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Friday for COZ058-060-066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Friday
for COZ059-081.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Friday
for COZ082.



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