Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190519
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Quick update to the forecast grids for latest obs data and radar
trends. Added isolated pops for the southern foothills and I-25
corridor through 11 pm tonight. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

This afternoon, thunderstorms have fired along a boundary in
southeast CO and are tracking northeastward.  There will continue to
be the potential for a couple severe storms over sern CO into this
evening, with the main threat being large hail.

This evening, the highest chances for pcpn are expected to be found
over the central CO mtns, Teller county, Pikes Peak, and the
southwest mtns.  These areas will see some additional accumulations
of snow.  The latest run of the HRRR and the 18Z run of the NAM12
are showing decreasing chances of pcpn over El Paso county thru the
evening hours, except maybe ovr the Monument Hill area where there
could be a couple or a few inches of additional snow accumulation.

After midnight, the HRRR and NAM12 show a significant decrease in
pcpn chances across all of southeast and south central CO, with only
some isolated showers.  The GFS continues to show a little more pcpn
than the other models, showing continued snowfall in the central
mtns thru the night, and some light snow accumulations over Teller
county and Pikes Peak, with some light showers over portions of the
southeast plains, increasing toward 12Z.  The NAM is a bit farther
south with the upper low center Fri morning than the GFS.  Both the
NAM and the GFS show widespread pcpn moving into southeast CO after
12Z, with the GFS being wetter and more widespread than the NAM.  At
this time, it looks like there could be several inches of snow over
the southern Sangre de Cristo mtns beginning Fri morning and thru
the day, so will issue a Winter Weather Advisory.  It is also
possible that the southern I-25 corridor counties could see several
inches of snow in the morning hours on Fri, mainly over Huerfano and
western Las Animas counties and especially west of the Interstate,
as temps are expected to be cold enough for a short period, but
impact will probably be low as the roads will probably just be
slushy or wet.

One other worry is the potential for low temps tonight around
freezing.  Have decided to issue a Freeze Warning for northern El
Paso county, and a Frost Advisory for southern El Paso, Huerfano and
western Las Animas counties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Friday night and Saturday...Models place a secondary piece of the
upper low over the southeast corner of the state Friday evening,
with snow for the higher elevations and rain for the lower expected
to continue through the evening. As the low pulls off to the e-ne
away from Colorado overnight, pcpn chances are forecast to diminish
quickly after midnight with unsettled nw flow aloft then settling
in. Another cold night on tap for the forecast area Fri night, and
additional frost/freeze highlights will likely be needed tomorrow.
Otherwise, look for temps to only warm into the 50s and 60s across
the area on Sat.

Sunday through Thursday...As the system exits the region, long range
models continue to keep Colorado under active northwest flow, with
multiple shortwaves crossing the region. There will be a nearly
constant threat of at least isolated convection over the higher
terrain and adjacent plains each day. A cold front dropping south
across the eastern plains Mon aftn will produce cooler temps for
Tue, then drier air filtering in behind is forecast to keep the cwa
dry for Wed. Temps will climb into the 60s to lower 70s each day,
but cooler on Tue with 50s and 60s expected. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

closed upper low will translate across the state during the next
24 hours. This will keep generally breezy northerly winds over all
of the taf sites during this forecast period. Expect mostly cloudy
skies with cigs around bkn050 through the period. There will
likely be passing showers which may bring brief periods of mvfr to
any of the taf sites, but this was not explicitly mentioned in the
TAF products. Some isold thunder cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ085-087-088.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ059-063-066-
068-081.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ058-060-082.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ074-
075.

Freeze Warning until 11 AM MDT Friday for COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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