Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPUB 181706
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1106 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A UPR LEVEL RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVER CO TODAY.  WITH WARM AIR
REMAINING IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER THE SERN PLAINS AND UPR ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
AND 5+ DEGREES IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVR THE AREA TODAY...WITH POSSIBLY JUST
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVR
PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD.

TONIGHT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MSTR
AND PCPN CHANCES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...REACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN
BORDER AREAS...MAINLY SRN LAS ANIMAS AND COSTILLA COUNTIES.
THUS...WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD POPS IN THESE AREAS. WILL ALSO LEAVE SOME
ISOLD POPS OVR THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS...AS THE 4KM WRF IS SUGGESTING
THIS COULD OCCUR...AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

RELATIVELY UNSETTLED AND COOLER LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH
POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA HAVING THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL OF BEING IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION FROM ODILE DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...NEXT NORTHERNLY SURGE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER MANY
LOCATIONS FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

NEXT METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF IMPACT THAT CLOSED
UPPER LOW(INITIALLY CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN UTAH AT 12Z MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY) WILL
HAVE ON THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

LATEST FORECAST THINKING IS THAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BE
NOTED OVER MANY PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A BRIEF RESPITE TUESDAY...BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY(ESPECIALLY
EASTERN SECTIONS).

FINALLY...WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LONGER TERM SLATED FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE CONTDVD LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVE...AND ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND CG LTG.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MOORE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.