Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 182050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
250 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Critical to near critical fire weather conditions across southern
portions of the southeast plains through early evening...

Mountains and high valleys still seeing breezy to windy conditions
this afternoon with higher elevations gusting to around 30-40 kts at
times.  Have seen some brief critical fire weather conditions at
KALS...and near critical fire weather conditions across southern
portions of the southeast plains this afternoon (Otero/Las Animas
Counties).  Other areas have been a bit breezy but with cooler
temperatures behind the front...humidities have stayed above
critical thresholds.

Next trof across the northern U.S Rockies will glance through
northern Colorado and Wyoming tonight.  This will send a quick round
of snow into the northern portions of the central mountains where 1-
3 inches of accumulation will be possible by morning.  This system
will also send a dry cold front through the southeast plains after
midnight.  Winds will shift out of the north across the plains...and
become gusty towards sunrise along and north of highway 50.
Temperatures tonight will be cool once again...though the front
should provide sufficient mixing to keep temperatures across the
plains from hitting freezing.

Snow will quickly diminish across the central mountains Wednesday
morning as moisture shallows out.  Will maintain some isolated snow
showers through the morning with given some orographics...but not
expecting much in the way of additional accumulation.  Temperatures
should cool off another 5-10 degrees across the plains behind the
front. Airmass behind the front is still pretty dry...though RHs
stay above critical thresholds.  It will remain breezy through the
early afternoon across the southeast plains before winds gradually
shift around from the northeast then east.  Interior mountains will
see drier sfc dew points spread in behind the system...but where RHs
are hitting below 15%...winds are not quite strong enough to hit
critical thresholds. Therefore no fire weather highlights
anticipated at this time. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Very warm and dry weekend ahead...

Extended forecast continues to look uneventful as an upper ridge
gradually moves over our area.

Wed night...dry conditions and generally light winds will lead to
good radiational cooling. A good portion of the Plains is likely to
dip down into the upper 20s by morning, so have issued a freeze
watch for the I-25 corridor and adjacent Plains. Winds will be
slightly stronger near the KS border, so may stay above freezing
there. Later shifts can reevaluate based on latest data. Thursday
will be the last cool day before temps climb above average once
again for the weekend and into next week.

Temps Fri-Sun over the Plains will climb into the upper 70s to lower
80s, or about 20 degrees above average. Fortunately, despite very
dry conditions, winds will be steadily decreasing both aloft and at
the surface as the upper jet pushes eastward and the high aloft
builds. So red flag conditions are not anticipated. No precip is
anticipated however until at least early next week. By Mon night
into next Tue, a Pacific trough should start moving into the
Rockies and this should bring some moisture if not widespread
precip. Still quite a bit of run to run and model to model
inconsistency for the latter part of the forecast, as the GFS seems
more optimistic than the EC for precip, but overall odds should
increase as we move into next week. Rose


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
KALS will continue to see southwest winds in the 15-25 kt range
through the afternoon...while KPUB and KCOS see southeast winds 15-
25 kts.  Winds will decrease after 01-02z for the terminals.  A dry
cold front will cross the Palmer Divide shortly after midnight
hitting the KCOS terminal between 07-09z...and KPUB between 08-10z.
North winds behind the front could gust up to 25 kts for a few hours
Wednesday morning.  Winds will decrease and eventually shift out of
the northeast to east during the afternoon with speeds under 15 kts.
Lighter winds are expected at ALS with speeds under 15 kts. -KT


Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
for COZ083-085>089-093>095-097.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-232-233.



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