Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 212150
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...Unsettled weather continues through Saturday...

Upper low over eastern CO will continue to pull away to the east
this evening with secondary shortwave across the northern U.S.
Rockies digging southeastward across CO tonight through Saturday.
Convection on the back side of the system will continue to drop
southeastward through late afternoon with some small hail and even
some brief weak cold air funnels possible with the stronger cells.
Snow levels have been wavering around 7500 feet according to Pikes
Peak area web cams.  As forcing increases again ahead of the next
shortwave should see a continuation of showers across the southeast
mountains/adjacent plains tonight with perhaps some enhance late
tonight through Saturday morning across the Pikes Peak region. Snow
levels will drop again to around 6000 feet, so Palmer Divide could
see an inch or so of snowfall on grassy surfaces. Higher elevations
of Pikes Peak and the Wet mountains may get another 2 to 5
inches...but overall amounts should stay below the advisory limits.

Other concern for tonight is the potential for freezing temperatures
across the plains and frost/freeze concerns for agricultural
interests, though this is looking like a low end risk given that the
forecast models keep low clouds across the area through the night
along with precipitation along the southeast mountains and I-25
corridor. This should keep temperatures above freezing across most
of the area. Only area where subfreezing temperatures are expected
would be the crest of the Palmer Divide where forecast is carrying
up to an inch of snow accumulation. Plan to let the forecast do the
talking up that way and not go out with any frost freeze headlines
since real concern would be the snowfall anyway.

Saturday...should be unsettled in the morning with some isolated to
scattered showers along the I-25 corridor and southeast mountains.
Drier air works in during the afternoon so although there will be
some lingering instability showers, coverage of showers should be
waning through the afternoon.  Temperatures will remain below normal
once again.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Main longer term meteorological issues include increasing
precipitation potential, especially from later Tuesday into next
Friday, gusty winds at times and temperatures.

Recent longer term computer simulations...PV analysis and forecast
model soundings suggest that upper ridging to zonal upper flow
will prevail over the forecast district from Saturday night into
Monday, allowing drier and warmer conditions during this time-
frame.

Then, unsettled and cooler conditions are anticipated from Tuesday
into next Friday as upper disturbances in combination with
northerly surface surges impact the forecast district.

At this time, it appears that the highest potential for more
widespread precipitation over southern Colorado during the longer
term should be experienced from later Wednesday into next Friday.

The warmest temperatures over the majority of the forecast
district during the longer term should be experienced Sunday and
Monday with coolest conditions anticipated by next Thursday and
Friday.

Finally, the highest potential for gusty winds during the longer
term should be noted from later Sunday into Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 347 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible at the
KCOS and KPUB through the afternoon.  CIGS associated with these
will range from VFR to MVFR and showers will be accompanied by
erratic gusty winds up to 30 kts through the early evening.   CIGS
will lower at KCOS and KPUB overnight into the MVFR category with
the possibility of IFR CIGS at KCOS overnight in -SHRASN.  Winds
decrease through the evening and will swing around from the east to
southeast at speeds under 10 kt overnight.  MVFR to patchy IFR cigs
will persist through Saturday morning though will lift and break
during the afternoon at both terminals.

KALS will remain VFR over the next 24 hours.  Gusty northerly winds
at KALS will diminish by 01-02z with winds remaining light with
speeds under 15 kts for Saturday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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