Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141732
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potent storm to bring widespread snow to the mountains and
  adjacent plains through Friday, with greatest impacts across
  the Pikes Peak region, and the Wets and Sangre De Cristo
  mountains where snowfall totals of up to 3 feet will be
  possible with locally higher amounts on northeast facing
  slopes.

- Snow will continue through early evening on Friday, mainly
  over the southern mountains and southern I-25 corridor/Raton
  Mesa area.

- Chance of snow returns to the higher terrain on Saturday
  through Monday, and possibly rain/snow over portions of the
  plains on Sunday through Monday.

- Increasing chance of snow again for the higher elevations and
  possibly rain for the lower elevations by mid part of next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Main update this morning was to adjust snow totals upwards in
most locations given the persistent forcing/ascent and highly
efficient snow production ongoing over much of southern CO. Deep
easterly flow in place will begin to focus more to the south
into the afternoon, mainly along and south of Highway 50. In
this locations, highest snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will remain
possible. To the north, light to moderate snow will continue,
though a brief lull in the snow is possible this afternoon into
the evening. Do expect the deep easterlies and persistent
isentropic ascent to spread back across much of southern
Colorado later tonight into Friday morning, supporting continued
accumulating snow for most higher and lower elevations along
and west of the I-25 corridor.

Given temps hovering right around freezing today, any location
that gets under lower intensity snow may see some slight
improvement in road conditions. However, any improvement will
likely be short lived by later today into this evening, as snow
ramps up and temperatures cool. Given the expected higher
amounts and impacts across Pueblo, especially along and west of
I-25 corridor, have opted to upgrade Pueblo County to a Warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 451 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Deeper moisture has been slower to work into southern sections of
the forecast area per WV and IR satellite loops, and snowfall has
just started to pick up along the lower eastern slopes of the Wets
and Sangre De Cristo mountains since 3 AM.  Meanwhile the band of
heaviest rain/snow continues to funnel from Pueblo into Fremont
county and the Pikes Peak Region with new development occuring
across the eastern plains along and north of highway 50 as a
reinforcing surge behind the cold front drops southward. Snow levels
are around 5000 feet with web cams showing snow covered roads across
much of El Paso county and west of Pueblo West and south of Colorado
City.  Some impressive snowfall totals are coming in across Teller
and northern El Paso counties where greatest impacts to travel and
infrastructure is expected.

As the upper low shifts southward, deformation band precipitation
will expand southward in response with H7 winds increasing from the
east to northeast to around 30 kts through mid morning across most
of the adjacent I-25 corridor region. This will continue to
intensify precipitation across the southern mountains with focus for
heavier amounts shifting into the southeast mountains and southern I-
25 corridor.  Heavier snow for the Pikes Peak region should become
more confined to northern El Paso and Teller County late this
morning through early afternoon as northerly winds increase and
diminish precipitation returns south of the Palmer Divide in
downslope flow.  Don`t think it will completely override the upglide
aloft, but it will likely cut back on precipitation efficiencies for
southern El Paso county during this period.  Snow levels may drop to
around 4500 feet briefly this morning before rising again around
5000 feet in the afternoon. Model soundings actually look a tad
warmer than last nights runs in Pueblo which lends credence to
keeping the Pueblo County zone in a Winter Weather Advisory. Suspect
the rain/snow switch over will occur after 12z at PUB.

Snow will also spread westward into the San Luis Valley and
southwest mountains as deepening easterly winds spill through La
Veta Pass and provide upslope to the western side of the San Luis
Valley.  Current Advisories and Warnings still look on target across
western portions of the forecast area.  Did extend Advisories and
Warnings for the southern portions of the central mountains into
tonight as latest snowfall forecast keeps some heavier snow across
southern sections through this evening.

Another round of snow will spread in from the south late this
afternoon and tonight, filling in again across the southeast
mountains and Pikes Peak Region.  Easterly upslope flow weakens a
bit as the upper low sags southwestward, and QPF looks lighter with
this second wave. But temperatures will be colder this evening, so
impacts may actually increase across Pueblo county as snow will have
an easier time sticking to pavement surfaces.

On the whole, not much change to the forecast.  Snow totals will
likely come out on the light side for the southern I-25 corridor due
to the later than advertised start to precipitation early this
morning.  Still looking at an additional 1-2 feet for the southeast
mountains with the higher Wets seeing up to 3 feet through today.
Pikes Peak already has a couple feet and could see around another 1
to 2 feet for the higher areas and northeast facing slopes through
tonight.  Most significant impacts will be focused across the Teller
and northern El Paso counties with this storm with a secondary but
no less significant snowfall maximum across the Wets and east slopes
of the Sangres.  -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 451 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Friday though Monday...

The cut-off U/L low which looks to be positioned over southern
California by early Friday morning, which is responsible for
advecting up more moisture and keeps precipitation going as the
main 500 mb shortwave trough continues to pull away from the
region downstream, will begin to fill and remain nearly quasi-
stationary. This will allow for the precip to begin to taper off
by later in the day, around early evening for most locations,
as the upslope component and overall upper level forcing
weakens. Due to the position of the cut-off U/L low being to the
southwest, the southern mountains and southern I-25
corridor/Raton Mesa area will have the best chance for snow to
last into the early evening hours, while most of the northern
and eastern half of the CWA will begin to dry out by late
morning to early afternoon. With cooler air remaining in place,
highs will likely only get up into the upper 30s to mid 40s for
most of the plains, although where there is better clearing out
over the far eastern plains, it may get to 50F. Winds will
continue to weaken and turn more southerly over the plains into
the late afternoon hours. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will
begin to break going into the evening hours further east and
north. Friday night will be coldest night for the plains with
partially clearing skies allowing for some efficient radiational
cooling to occur, with lows dropping into the low to mid 20s
over most of the plains. Some development of lower clouds
overnight could inhibit this though. It will also be relatively
milder for high country with mostly cloudy skies remaining in
place; generally in the teens to low 20s.

Some of the deterministic models suggest that the cut-off U/L low
could retrograde a little further west going into Saturday. If this
verifies, it could limit some of the amount of moisture feed from
the south over the southwestern portions of the CWA. There looks to
be a pretty good consensus between guidance though that precip will
continue into the morning hours of Saturday for at least the
southern mountains, especially over the eastern San Juan Mountains.
Models begin to deviate more going into Sunday with the movement and
progression of the U/L low. The GFS keeps the position the furthest
to the southwest of all the models, although there is a better
amount of moisture with the best upper level diffluence compared to
the other models, and while the NAM12 is the closest with the
position just southwest of the Four Corners area by Sunday morning,
it displays a much drier solution. Most of the precip should remain
over the higher terrain from Saturday through Monday, although there
could be some precip moving out over the I-25 corridor and
southeastern plains from Sunday through Monday. The Canadian and
ECMWF are closer to what the GFS is showing, although the Canadian
has a better moisture feed and upper level diffluence similar to
that of the the GFS with the position more to the northwest, just
east of Las Vegas, NV. If either of the the GFS or Canadian
solutions verify, snowfall totals over the mountains could be
greater going into Sunday. The Canadian and GFS also keeps it the
most active over the region going into the late Sunday and Monday
morning, whereas the movement of the low with the ECMWF model takes
it further south by this time and begins to deplete the moisture
feed quicker than the other two. By later in the day on Monday, the
Canadian model then has the U/L retrograde way back up to the
northwest over the Great Basin, whereas the GFS and ECMWF become
much more aligned with the position remaining nearly quasi-
stationary over Arizona. Keep in mind that the track of a cut-off
low becomes much less predictable this far out in the forecast, and
still subject to change.

Tuesday through Thursday...

By this time in the forecast period, there is much more deviation
with the deterministic models with respects to what happens to the
cut-off U/L low, but there is a general consensus between the models
that it will begin to either become absorbed in the longwave trough
over the eastern half of the CONUS as a perturbation transitions
over the region. The only outlier is the Canadian model, showing it
retrograding further back to the west and the merging with a trough
off the coast of California. Either way, there is a band of moisture
still over the southwest region that will move back up to the north
and provide a chance of precip over the higher elevations, and if
both the GFS and ECMWF verify and the cut-off U/L low gets "kicked"
by the perturbation and propagates back over Colorado, then the
plains may also see an increasing chance of rain (as it will likely
be too warm of a system for snow) by the mid part of next week. This
is still too far out in the forecast period to have much confidence
on what will occur and will need to be further evaluated for
any changes in the wobble of the U/L low in the upcoming days.
-Stewey

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 451 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions expected at KCOS and KPUB with snow spreading
into the KALS terminal later this morning.  During heavier snowfall,
cigs and vis could fall into the LIFR category.  A brief lull late
morning and early afternoon should allow for a slight improvement in
cigs and vis at KCOS but overall, light snow is expected to continue
before another round of heavier snow spreads in late this afternoon
and evening.  Snowfall will be most intense at KCOS where an
additional 6-8 inches can be expected through tonight.  KPUB could
see around a slushy 1-3 inches at times during the heavier snow
though warm surfaces may lead to some melt off.

KALS will see IFR cigs/vis spread in with a round of snow this
morning, followed by some improvement in the afternoon.  Another
steadier round of snow will spread in overnight into Friday morning.
Around 2-4 inches of snow will be possible at the terminal through
tonight with additional snowfall expected on Friday.  Temperatures
around or above freezing may lead to some melt off on pavement
surfaces when precipitation decreases this afternoon. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ058.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for
COZ059.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Friday for COZ060-061-076-
081-082-084.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for COZ062-063.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ064>068-
072>075-079-080-087-088.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Friday for COZ069>071.
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Friday for COZ077-078-083-
085-086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...TORGERSON
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...TORGERSON


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