Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231706
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1106 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Shallow cold front was dropping southward through the plains this
morning, bringing a shift to north winds and slightly higher
dewpoints to most areas along and east of I-25. Front looks like it
will become stationary near the NM border by mid-morning, before
lifting slowly back northward through the afternoon and evening as
surface pressure begins to fall in response to next upper wave
dropping south along the west coast. Models suggest some modest low
level moisture and instability may pool along and north of the
boundary by late afternoon, with perhaps some isolated tsra
developing along the palmer divide and near the ks border as weak
moisture convergence may be enough to generate convection. 0-6km
shear will be sufficient for a strong to severe storms if convection
can develop, although best chances for severe will likely stay just
north and east of the area where deeper instability lies. Central
mountains could also see a brief tsra or two as well, though again
coverage/intensity will be sparse/weak. Max temps will continue to
drift downward a few degrees, with most noticeable cooling over
the eastern plains behind the front. Overnight, any convection
will end quickly in the evening as strongest forcing continues to
stay just north and east of the region. By early Tue morning, cold
front will slosh back southward through the plains, with perhaps
enough low level moisture for some stratus along the KS border
toward sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

...Best chance of rain on Thursday...

Extended portion of the forecast still looks pretty tame, and models
are in good agreement through the end of the week and into the
weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day of the period, with highs likely
topping out in the mid to upper 80s for the Plains...and 60s to low
70s for the higher elevations. Could be a bit breezy in the
afternoon as SW winds in the 30-35 kt range mix down to the surface.
Best chance for storms late in the afternoon will be mainly over NE
CO...so have maintained nil POPs for most of the area. Risk for
severe storms could sneak into Kiowa County by late afternoon or
early eve...so could see a slight risk of severe once again near
the KS border. SW flow pattern continues on Wed with continued
warm conditions and low threat of convection. Best chance for any
precip will be over the Pikes Pk region and Upper Arkansas Valley.

Thursday morning, the upper low to our west will finally start
moving into our area...reaching the 4 Corners area by mid day.
This will bring an increased threat of showers and storms...first to
the central and SW mountains early in the day...and then to the I-25
corridor and Plains by afternoon, as the upper low moves eastward
into KS by Thu evening. Upslope flow, especially on the backside of
the upper circulation, will put the best chance of precip over the
eastern mountains and southern Front Range. Could potentially see
some localized heavy rainfall from this system so will have to keep
an eye out for that. Severe potential looks low over the area with
generally low CAPE...but the latest NAM does bring a ribbon of
higher CAPE into extreme eastern CO in the afternoon, so will
have to see how much low-level moisture can make its way into the
Plains. Latest guidance pushes the trough eastward fairly quickly on
Friday, so should see fewer showers and storms on Friday but still
on the cool side of climatology for afternoon temps. The pattern
reloads for the weekend as quasi-zonal flow transitions to SW flow
ahead of the next trough developing over the PacNW. Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1023 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Mostly dry southwest flow aloft over flight area next 24 hours.
KCOS...KPUB and KALS TAF sites likely to remain dry and VFR.
Enough moisture and instability exists for a few spotty afternoon
and evening showers or thunderstorms over portions of the flight
area...primarily from 18Z to 03Z. The most likely area for these
showers or storms would be across the central mountains, the
Pikes Peak Region and the far eastern plains. These storms do not
look all that intense but would pose threats of lightning and
erratic wind gusts to 50 mph. Storms right near the eastern
Colorado border could be stronger. Storms may produce local MVFR,
IFR or even LIFR flight conditions requiring circumnavigation by
pilots.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



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