Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 172043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
243 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

...Increasing Chance of Storms Tomorrow...

Convection is starting to pick up this afternoon, and latest HRRR is
trending towards a broken line of convection developing E of I-25
and moving EWD to the KS line by early this eve. With CAPE running
in the 2000-2500 range near the KS border, could again see some
marginal SVR storms later this afternoon or eve. Main threat would
be some marginally svr hail and strong wind gusts, especially if the
HRRR scenario pans out. Some pockets of near Red Flag conditions
persist this afternoon as well, especially over thee Upper Arkansas
Valley. This should abate this evening as winds die down.

Tomorrow...the heat continues as H7 temps remain close to 20 deg C.
Could see temps top off near 100 degrees over the Plains once again.
A mitigating factor will be increased clouds and chances of precip
by Mon afternoon. A modest monsoonal pattern will set up as the
upper high shifts into OK and strengthen Mon afternoon. A moisture
plume will extend NWD through AZ and NM, leading to increased
coverage of storms Mon afternoon across W CO and the Contdvd, which
will then shift EWD over portions of the I-25 corridor and
adjacent Plains by Mon eve. Some models, including the ARW, are a
bit less extensive with convection over the Plains tomorrow. If
trends towards less coverage over the Plains continue, later
shifts may have to reduce POPs over the E Plains for Monday. For
now, ISOLD POPs for the later afternoon look reasonable, given the
influx of moisture and strong daytime heating. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Tue and Wed an upper level ridge wl be over the central U.S., with
an upper trof over the Pacific NW.  This wl leave the forecast area
on the western edge of the upper high and there wl be a stream of
mstr working its way into the wrn half of CO from the south.  This
mstr and the daytime heating wl combine to result in daily chances
for showers and tstms from about the I-25 corridor and westward. The
southeast plains wl generally be dry, but some isold storms can`t be
ruled out.

For Thu and thru the weekend, the upr ridge centered wl shift
westward and wl be more ovr CO and NM, with not as much mstr being
drawn up into the forecast area.  However, there wl still be enough
mstr over the area for daily pcpn chances, with isold to scattered
storms over and nr the mtns, and isold storms over the sern plains.

High temps each day are expected to be a bit above average.  It
looks like it will be quite breezy over the far sern plains on Tue,
but at this time it appears the RH values wl be high enough that
fire weather highlights wl not be needed, but wl have to keep an
eye on that situation.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2016

No change in the forecast reasoning for the TAF sites through
tomorrow. Winds should remain generally light, and VFR conditions
will continue through tomorrow. A round of storms will move EWD
through the CO Plains this afternoon and evening, Storms near the KS
border could become borderline SVR with strong winds and some hail.
Storms tomorrow will develop over the Contdvd, then spread EWD to
the I-25 corridor by late afternoon and eve. Rose


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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