Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 150515
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

RATHER FLAT CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HAMPERING CONVECTION SO FAR. STILL MAY SEE A
FEW UPDRAFTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS GROW DEEP ENOUGH BY EARLY EVENING TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AND SOME SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS. WITH LACK OF MUCH UPPER FORCING...ANY STORMS WILL
END QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS...REACHING THE PALMER DIVIDE 06Z-08Z...THEN
PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE NM BORDER 12Z-15Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTH WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ON THE PLAINS AFTER SUNRISE AS CLOUDS THICKEN
AND UPSLOPE FLOW DEEPENS. DURING THE DAY MON...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS
COOL AND CLOUDY. AFTER A FEW MORNING -SHRA...AIR MASS OVER THE
PLAINS LOOKS TOO STABLE FOR MUCH CONVECTION...AND WILL REMOVE TSRA
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 FROM THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...STILL ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR SOME
AFTERNOON TSRA...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/STRENGTH
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. MAX TEMPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE VERSUS
TODAY...WILL EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS COOL 15-20 DEGF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED WITH DIFFERENCES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  ENSEMBLES ARE
GENERALLY CLUSTERED AROUND A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WHILE THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TRY AND CUT OFF AN UPPER SYSTEM SOMEWHERE
OFF THE WEST COAST OR DESERT SOUTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.  THIS
WILL BRING WARM CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  LACK OF UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING UNDER THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORMS
FROM HAVING MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD RISK.  IF A STRONGER STORM HAPPENS
TO MOVE OVER A BURN SCAR...THERE COULD BE A SMALL RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING AND THIS WILL NEED BE WATCHED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DIG ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  MODELS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WHATS LEFT OF ODILE MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO COLORADO.  EXPECT TO
SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
INCREASES.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EASTWARD ON FRIDAY WITH
DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.  AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES DIVERGE
WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.  THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS TAKE THE
UPPER SYSTEM AND CUT IT OFF...WITH THE GFS OVER ARIZONA AND THE
ECMWF WELL OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TRACK
THE TROUGH EAST WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.  GIVEN
THE PATTERN...THE PROGRESSIVE ENSEMBLES SEEM MORE REALISTIC AT THIS
TIME AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CO/WYOMING BORDER ATTM WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
EXPECTING FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS COS AND PUB BETWEEN 10Z-12Z WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15-25KTS IN ITS WAKE. FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRIKLES
AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH SFC FLOW
BECOMING UPSLOPE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW


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