Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241027
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
INTO NRN SAGUACHE COUNTY...WRN FREMONT COUNTY AND INTO PORTIONS OF
TELLER COUNTY.  THEY ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE UPR TROF MOVES
ACRS THE AREA.  BY MIDDAY IT LOOKS LIKE ALL SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES E OF THE AREA AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY HAD
PREVIOUSLY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE OVR BACA COUNTY...ERN LAS
ANIMAS AND OVR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES. HOWEVER THE HRRR
IS SHOWING THE GUST POTENTIAL TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET THE
RED FLAG CRITERIA.  AREAS NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND AROUND
WALSENBURG STILL LOOKING QUITE BREEZY.  ALSO THE RH VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACRS ALL OF THE SERN PLAINS AND
I25 CORRIDOR.  GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING ACRS THE SERN PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR.  IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY END SOONER
THAN 8 PM AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUITE A BIT BY 6 PM.
HOWEVER WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE END TIME AT THIS POINT. THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY IS ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE WINDS LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH ACRS THE VALLEY AND IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE MIN RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACRS THE VALLEY FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...WL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPR TROF WL BE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING.  THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMING INTO
THE WEEKEND...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BEST LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND ALSO AGREE ON SENDING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
DESPITE BEST LIFT BEING NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTS AND THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW PRONE AREAS OF THE  PIKES PEAK REGION...THE
PALMER DVD...THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE RATON MESA.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK RATHER HIGH INITIALLY THROUGH COULD LOWER TO
BETWEEN 8000-9000 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 10K FEET.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AGAIN...MODELS KEEPING BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH BEST THREAT OF
ANY PRECIP STAYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK
REGION. PASSING SYSTEM SENDS A WEAKER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE STATE BY A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. COULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SENDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.  BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WL DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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