Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151750
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1050 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

BASED ON LATEST SAT AND MSAS SFC PRESSURE RISES...FRONT ALREADY
PUSHING THROUGH EL PASO COUNTY. IRONICALLY THE MIXING HAS BROUGHT
SOME WARMING WITH LOCATIONS FINALLY HITTING ABOVE FREEZING THE
FREEZING MARK...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS BEHIND THE
FRONT SO EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE CO. HIGHS HAVE ALREADY LIKELY BEEN REACHED IN
EL PASO COUNTY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AS IT IS ALREADY SNOWING UP IN NE COLORADO WHICH
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING WELL. SPED UP THE TIMING OF SNOW IN THE
GRIDS. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO START BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MONUMENT
HILL...WITH HEAVIER SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL 22Z ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THEN RAPIDLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
00Z AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

...MORE SNOW AND ARCTIC AIR ON THE WAY...

CURRENTLY...

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC INTRUSION WAS ALONG THE CO/WY
BORDER AND IT WAS HEADING SOUTH. CLOSER TO HOME...TEMPERATURES AT 3
AM VARIED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS ELEVATIONS GENERALLY
ABOVE 6000 FEET WERE IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR (30S AND 40S)
WHILE AREAS BELOW 6000 WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. IN THE MTNS AND
VALLEYS...IT WAS RELATIVELY WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS INDICATED THAT SNOW STILL OCCURRING OVER
THE CONTDVD.

TODAY...

WEATHER WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 24. HRRR INDICATES THAT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO EL PASO COUNTY
AROUND 9-10 AM AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTH...REACHING THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER BY 3 PM. LIKEWISE...MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MIDDAY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT GOES BY.

AS FOR PRECIP...IN THE MTNS...STEADY SNOW...SOME HEAVY...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS ALL DAY TODAY. SNOW ACROSS THE SAN
JUANS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN
BY MID AFTERNOON.

PRECIP ON THE PLAINS WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON AND WILL PICK UP AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. STEADY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND TRAVEL WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME DIFFICULT
ACROSS THIS REGION. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT GUSTY SO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR.

BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SNOW WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH DOWN THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MTN REGION. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE PLAINS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE SPANISH PEAKS/RATON MESA/WET
MTNS REGION AS ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRETTY HEALTHY QPF BULLSEYES
OVER THIS REGION. FOR NOW I HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THIS REGION WITH THE AREA LIKELY RECEIVING 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAS ANIMAS AND HUERFANO COUNTIES WHILE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THESE VALUES MAY BE ON THE LOW SIDE...ESPECIALLY IF
GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFT TO REANALYZE AND
UPGRADE TO WARNING STATUS IF LATER SIMULATIONS SHOW LARGE QPF VALUES
OVER AFOREMENTIONED REGION.

FOR THE REST OF THE PLAINS...EL PASO COUNTY SHOULD GENERALLY RECEIVE
ABOUT 2-4" OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT WITH 2-6 IN TELLER COUNTY AND
PIKES PEAK. PUEBLO/FREMONT COUNTIES WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANYWHERE
FROM BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. OVER THE FAR EAST PLAINS...1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW...HOWEVER THE SNOW WILL END
FROM S TO N ACROSS THE C MTNS LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL ANOTHER 6 TO
12 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE CONTDVD REGION

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
SINGLE DIGITS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION EXCEPT
TEENS MAINLY IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

...COLD SUNDAY THEN GRADUAL WARMING...

SNOW WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD MOSTLY END BY NOON AS PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. NEW SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING ONE MORE REALLY COLD DAY SUNDAY BUT THEN THINGS WILL
START TO WARM UP AND DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE WARM UP MAY START A LITTLE SLOW ON MONDAY AS SNOW COVER AND
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TEND TO KEEP SURFACE INVERSIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. BY TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING AS DOWNSLOPE PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOP. THIS
SHOULD HELP BRING CHINOOK BREEZES OFF THE MOUNTAINS TO START
WARMING THE AIR.

COULD BE A LITTLE SET BACK WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS DAY. THIS COULD
REESTABLISH INVERSIONS IF THERE IS ENOUGH COOLING WITH THE HIGH
AND IF THERE IS ANY SNOW COVER REMAINING.

THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK ENERGY
FROM THE PACIFIC WILL START MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS
ENERGY COULD SPREAD SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THURSDAY...AND EAST TO THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK
REGION ON FRIDAY. THE APPROACHING ENERGY DOESN`T LOOK STRONG AT
THIS POINT SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD THURSDAY...BUT THEN START TO COOL ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

FRONT ALREADY MOVING INTO NORTHERN PUEBLO COUNTY AS OF 1745Z.
EXPECT IT TO HIT THE KPUB TAF SITE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 15-30 KTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IFR STRATUS IS ALREADY BANKED UP ACROSS NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY...AND EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND FILL IN
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF SNOWFALL
IS A CHALLENGE AS FORECAST MODELS NOT HANDLING IT WELL WHERE SNOW
IS ALREADY FALLING ACROSS NORTHEAST CO. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
BEGIN IN KCOS AROUND 22Z...AND IN KPUB BY 23Z. HEAVIER SNOW WILL
COME IN AFTER 00Z AS A BAND DEVELOPS WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND
SPREADS SOUTHWARD. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. KALS WILL SEE A LATER START TO SNOW...PROBABLY AROUND
05Z...BUT SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW.
ALL THREE TERMINALS SHOULD EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL SET
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING VFR STRATUS CLEARED
OUT BY 15Z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-080-087-088.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-
068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT



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